1 00:00:09,475 --> 00:00:07,573 PRESENTS, THE VON KARMAN 2 00:00:11,377 --> 00:00:09,542 LECTURE, A SERIES OF TALKS BY 3 00:00:12,678 --> 00:00:11,444 SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS WHO ARE 4 00:00:31,597 --> 00:00:12,745 EXPLORING OUR PLANET, OUR SOLAR 5 00:00:32,365 --> 00:00:31,664 SYSTEM AND ALL THAT LIES BEYOND. 6 00:00:34,333 --> 00:00:32,432 >>> GOOD EVENING. 7 00:00:34,667 --> 00:00:34,400 WHAT A HUGE CROWD WE HAVE 8 00:00:35,368 --> 00:00:34,734 TONIGHT. 9 00:00:39,172 --> 00:00:35,435 YOU'RE ALL HERE FOR ME, I 10 00:00:40,740 --> 00:00:39,239 ASSUME. 11 00:00:42,675 --> 00:00:40,807 WELL, THANK YOU FOR COMING. 12 00:00:44,177 --> 00:00:42,742 WELCOME TO THE JET PROPULSION 13 00:00:46,145 --> 00:00:44,244 LABORATORY, ONE OF THE GREATEST 14 00:00:46,813 --> 00:00:46,212 PLACES IN THE WORLD, VERY 15 00:00:47,447 --> 00:00:46,880 INSPIRING PLACE FULL OF 16 00:00:49,315 --> 00:00:47,514 WONDERFUL SCIENTISTS AND 17 00:00:50,016 --> 00:00:49,382 ENGINEERS. 18 00:00:52,218 --> 00:00:50,083 SO I THANK YOU ALL FOR COMING 19 00:00:54,454 --> 00:00:52,285 TONIGHT. 20 00:00:55,855 --> 00:00:54,521 MY NAME IS SUSAN CALORIE. 21 00:00:59,058 --> 00:00:55,922 I'M THE MANAGER OF THE EARTH 22 00:00:59,792 --> 00:00:59,125 PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT OFFICE. 23 00:01:01,561 --> 00:00:59,859 IT'S MY PRIVILEGE TO WORK WITH 24 00:01:03,629 --> 00:01:01,628 ALL OF OUR SCIENTISTS AND 25 00:01:04,931 --> 00:01:03,696 ENGINEERS AND HELP TRANSLATE 26 00:01:07,366 --> 00:01:04,998 THEIR WORK INTO EVERYDAY ENGLISH 27 00:01:08,501 --> 00:01:07,433 BECAUSE SOME OF THEM TALK IN 28 00:01:13,372 --> 00:01:08,568 WORDS WE CAN'T ALL UNDERSTAND 29 00:01:14,006 --> 00:01:13,439 EXCEPT FOR THE MAN WHO WILL BE 30 00:01:15,775 --> 00:01:14,073 SPEAKING TO YOU TONIGHT. 31 00:01:19,278 --> 00:01:15,842 SO WE'VE ALL HEARD A LOT ABOUT 32 00:01:22,048 --> 00:01:19,345 DROUGHT, EL NINO, LA NINA. 33 00:01:23,416 --> 00:01:22,115 MAYBE EVEN SOMETHING LIKE THE 34 00:01:25,118 --> 00:01:23,483 PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION 35 00:01:26,686 --> 00:01:25,185 LATELY IN THE NEWS. 36 00:01:29,755 --> 00:01:26,753 ALL OF THESE PHENOMENA HAVE BEEN 37 00:01:32,425 --> 00:01:29,822 IN THE NEWS A LOT LATELY. 38 00:01:33,926 --> 00:01:32,492 MOST OF US DO NOT KNOW WHAT THEY 39 00:01:35,428 --> 00:01:33,993 ARE OR WHAT THEY MEAN OR WHAT 40 00:01:37,730 --> 00:01:35,495 THESE CONDITIONS ARE. 41 00:01:39,532 --> 00:01:37,797 SO WE HAVE A VERY SPECIAL GUEST 42 00:01:45,204 --> 00:01:39,599 TONIGHT WHO IS GOING TO HELP 43 00:01:47,607 --> 00:01:45,271 EXPLAIN ALL OF THIS TO US, WHAT 44 00:01:47,940 --> 00:01:47,674 THEY MEAN AND WHAT WE CAN 45 00:01:49,542 --> 00:01:48,007 EXPECT. 46 00:01:50,309 --> 00:01:49,609 OFTEN HE IS CALLED THE PROPHET 47 00:01:53,312 --> 00:01:50,376 OF CALIFORNIA CLIMATE. 48 00:01:54,981 --> 00:01:53,379 THOSE OF US AT JPL ALSO CALL HIM 49 00:01:57,183 --> 00:01:55,048 THE KING OF ONE-LINERS IS 50 00:01:59,318 --> 00:01:57,250 BECAUSE HE HAS A REAL SPECIAL 51 00:02:01,387 --> 00:01:59,385 ABILITY TO BOIL DOWN REALLY 52 00:02:02,522 --> 00:02:01,454 COMPLEX TOPIC INTO A VERY SHORT 53 00:02:04,190 --> 00:02:02,589 PHRASE OR SENTENCE. 54 00:02:08,261 --> 00:02:04,257 BUT OUR SPEAKER TONIGHT HAS BEEN 55 00:02:08,561 --> 00:02:08,328 A SCIENTIST AT JPL SINCE ABOUT 56 00:02:10,897 --> 00:02:08,628 1983. 57 00:02:14,500 --> 00:02:10,964 HIS RESEARCH IS FOCUSED ON 58 00:02:16,068 --> 00:02:14,567 IMPROVING OUR UNDERSTANDING OF 59 00:02:17,136 --> 00:02:16,135 EARTH'S CLIMATE AND IMPORTANT 60 00:02:19,906 --> 00:02:17,203 ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS LIKE EL 61 00:02:21,073 --> 00:02:19,973 NINO AND LA NINA AND LONG-TERM 62 00:02:23,209 --> 00:02:21,140 CLIMATE CHANGE. 63 00:02:24,877 --> 00:02:23,276 HE'S THE AUTHOR OF MANY 64 00:02:25,244 --> 00:02:24,944 SCIENTIFIC PAPERS, POPULAR 65 00:02:26,579 --> 00:02:25,311 ARTICLES. 66 00:02:27,413 --> 00:02:26,646 HE WORKS WITH STUDENTS FROM ALL 67 00:02:29,715 --> 00:02:27,480 OVER THE WORLD. 68 00:02:32,351 --> 00:02:29,782 HE GIVES LECTURES ALL OVER 69 00:02:34,387 --> 00:02:32,418 CALIFORNIA AND OTHER LOCATIONS. 70 00:02:35,021 --> 00:02:34,454 HE'S A HUGE FAVORITE WITH THE 71 00:02:37,056 --> 00:02:35,088 MEDIA. 72 00:02:39,759 --> 00:02:37,123 I BELIEVE HE WAS ON NBC NEWS 73 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:39,826 TONIGHT, CBS NEWS AND CNN. 74 00:02:44,030 --> 00:02:41,427 HE'S SOUTH OUT BY REPORTERS 75 00:02:46,232 --> 00:02:44,097 BECAUSE HE KNOWS SO MUCH ABOUT 76 00:02:48,167 --> 00:02:46,299 WEATHER AND CLIMATE. 77 00:02:51,370 --> 00:02:48,234 AND HE ALSO IN A RECENT ARTICLE 78 00:02:52,405 --> 00:02:51,437 WAS NAMED ONE OF THE WEST'S MOST 79 00:02:54,507 --> 00:02:52,472 INFLUENTIAL INDIVIDUALS IN 80 00:02:56,976 --> 00:02:54,574 DEALING WITH WATER ISSUES. 81 00:02:58,344 --> 00:02:57,043 HE GRADUATED FROM PURDUE 82 00:03:00,313 --> 00:02:58,411 UNIVERSITY, AND THEN HE WENT ON 83 00:03:01,180 --> 00:03:00,380 TO EARN HIS Ph.D. IN 84 00:03:01,948 --> 00:03:01,247 OCEANOGRAPHY AT THE UNIVERSITY 85 00:03:04,350 --> 00:03:02,015 OF HAWAII, PRETTY NICE PLACE TO 86 00:03:08,354 --> 00:03:04,417 STUDY. 87 00:03:11,390 --> 00:03:08,421 HE BEGAN HIS CAREER AT THE 88 00:03:13,859 --> 00:03:11,457 SCRIPS INSTITUTE OCEANOGRAPHY IN 89 00:03:15,561 --> 00:03:13,926 LA HO YEA AND THEN CAME TO JPL. 90 00:03:16,829 --> 00:03:15,628 DURING HIS CAREER HE HAS SERVED 91 00:03:18,030 --> 00:03:16,896 AS CONSULTANT TO MANY 92 00:03:20,032 --> 00:03:18,097 ORGANIZATIONS INCLUDING THE 93 00:03:22,501 --> 00:03:20,099 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND THE 94 00:03:23,936 --> 00:03:22,568 UNITED NATIONS, AS WELL AS MANY 95 00:03:25,671 --> 00:03:24,003 OTHER SCIENTIFIC ORGANIZATIONS. 96 00:03:27,306 --> 00:03:25,738 HE'S RECEIVED MANY AWARDS FOR 97 00:03:29,041 --> 00:03:27,373 HIS SCIENTIFIC WORK. 98 00:03:30,276 --> 00:03:29,108 BUT ALSO FOR COMMUNICATING 99 00:03:32,144 --> 00:03:30,343 SCIENCE TO THE PUBLIC. 100 00:03:35,248 --> 00:03:32,211 WE'RE SO GLAD TO HAVE HIM WITH 101 00:03:37,450 --> 00:03:35,315 US TONIGHT TO EXPLAIN WHAT'S 102 00:03:41,153 --> 00:03:37,517 HAPPENING IN OUR WORLD. 103 00:03:41,587 --> 00:03:41,220 DR. BILL PATZERT. 104 00:03:46,125 --> 00:03:41,654 [ APPLAUSE ] 105 00:03:47,159 --> 00:03:46,192 >> THANK YOU, SUSAN. 106 00:03:47,693 --> 00:03:47,226 >> WELL, GOOD EVENING, 107 00:03:49,061 --> 00:03:47,760 EVERYBODY. 108 00:03:50,196 --> 00:03:49,128 CAN EVERYBODY HEAR ME? 109 00:03:51,497 --> 00:03:50,263 OKAY, GOOD. 110 00:03:53,699 --> 00:03:51,564 WELL, WELCOME TO JPL. 111 00:03:54,567 --> 00:03:53,766 YOU KNOW, I HOPE YOU ENJOY 112 00:03:55,668 --> 00:03:54,634 YOURSELF THIS EVENING BECAUSE 113 00:03:59,639 --> 00:03:55,735 YOU PAID FOR IT, RIGHT? 114 00:04:01,741 --> 00:03:59,706 WE'RE ALL WORKING FOR YOU. 115 00:04:02,508 --> 00:04:01,808 NOW, THE -- WE HAVE A BIG TOPIC 116 00:04:04,543 --> 00:04:02,575 THIS EVENING. 117 00:04:04,910 --> 00:04:04,610 EVERYBODY KNOWS ABOUT THE 118 00:04:06,979 --> 00:04:04,977 DROUGHT. 119 00:04:08,014 --> 00:04:07,046 WE'RE ON OUR KNEES WITH THIS 120 00:04:10,082 --> 00:04:08,081 DROUGHT, ALL RIGHT? 121 00:04:12,785 --> 00:04:10,149 THIS DROUGHTING IS PAINFUL. 122 00:04:13,252 --> 00:04:12,852 THIS DROUGHT HAS BEEN 123 00:04:15,454 --> 00:04:13,319 LONG-LASTING. 124 00:04:16,689 --> 00:04:15,521 AND WHAT WE ALL REALLY WANT TO 125 00:04:18,357 --> 00:04:16,756 KNOW, WHEN ARE WE GOING TO GET 126 00:04:21,327 --> 00:04:18,424 OUT OF THIS DROUGHT AND I'LL TRY 127 00:04:21,727 --> 00:04:21,394 TO ANSWER THAT QUESTION THIS 128 00:04:23,696 --> 00:04:21,794 EVENING. 129 00:04:26,332 --> 00:04:23,763 NOW, WHAT IS A DROUGHT? 130 00:04:27,933 --> 00:04:26,399 FIRST OF ALL, YOU KNOW, FOR SOME 131 00:04:30,269 --> 00:04:28,000 PEOPLE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST TIME 132 00:04:31,737 --> 00:04:30,336 YOU GOT A PAY RAISE, YOU KNOW? 133 00:04:33,906 --> 00:04:31,804 OR FOR SOME STUDENTS THE LAST 134 00:04:37,710 --> 00:04:33,973 TIME YOU GOT AN "A." 135 00:04:38,044 --> 00:04:37,777 OR THE LAST TIME YOU GOT A TAX 136 00:04:40,846 --> 00:04:38,111 REFUND. 137 00:04:42,081 --> 00:04:40,913 BUT I'M GOING TO BE TALKING 138 00:04:42,682 --> 00:04:42,148 ABOUT RAIN AND SNOW OR THE LACK 139 00:04:43,349 --> 00:04:42,749 OF IT. 140 00:04:45,484 --> 00:04:43,416 THAT'S MY DROUGHT FOR THIS 141 00:04:46,719 --> 00:04:45,551 EVENING. 142 00:04:49,355 --> 00:04:46,786 NOW, I'M GOING TO TELL YOU WHAT 143 00:04:51,490 --> 00:04:49,422 I'M GOING TO TELL YOU. 144 00:04:53,326 --> 00:04:51,557 THERE'S A STRONG CONNECTION 145 00:04:55,094 --> 00:04:53,393 BETWEEN WHAT HAPPENS IN THE 146 00:04:57,196 --> 00:04:55,161 PACIFIC OCEAN AND WHAT HAPPENS 147 00:04:59,699 --> 00:04:57,263 TO THE CLIMATE NOT ONLY HERE IN 148 00:05:00,032 --> 00:04:59,766 CALIFORNIA BUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE 149 00:05:02,835 --> 00:05:00,099 PLANET. 150 00:05:03,202 --> 00:05:02,902 SO THE KEY IS REALLY THE 151 00:05:04,003 --> 00:05:03,269 PACIFIC. 152 00:05:08,007 --> 00:05:04,070 WHEN THE PACIFIC SPEAKS, WE ALL 153 00:05:10,076 --> 00:05:08,074 SHOULD LISTEN. 154 00:05:11,844 --> 00:05:10,143 AND THEN THE BIG QUESTION IS, IS 155 00:05:13,179 --> 00:05:11,911 THAT THERE'S A LOT ABOUT EL 156 00:05:14,647 --> 00:05:13,246 NINO. 157 00:05:15,314 --> 00:05:14,714 EL NINO IS EMINENT. 158 00:05:17,283 --> 00:05:15,381 IT'S BUILDING. 159 00:05:17,650 --> 00:05:17,350 WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AT IT THIS 160 00:05:20,119 --> 00:05:17,717 EVENING. 161 00:05:21,787 --> 00:05:20,186 IF IT MATURES, WILL IT RESCUE US 162 00:05:23,689 --> 00:05:21,854 FROM THE DROUGHTING? 163 00:05:25,224 --> 00:05:23,756 SO THOSE ARE THREE BIG TOPICS. 164 00:05:27,426 --> 00:05:25,291 YOU KNOW THAT'S A LOT TO TALK 165 00:05:28,928 --> 00:05:27,493 ABOUT, BUT EACH ONE OF THEM IS A 166 00:05:30,329 --> 00:05:28,995 LECTURE IN THEMSELVES. 167 00:05:31,530 --> 00:05:30,396 BUT THEY'RE SO CONNECTED. 168 00:05:33,532 --> 00:05:31,597 I THOUGHT I'D SIMPLIFY IT AND 169 00:05:34,734 --> 00:05:33,599 PUT ALL THREE TOGETHER. 170 00:05:38,538 --> 00:05:34,801 DISCOURAGED HERE, ALL RIGHT? 171 00:05:40,773 --> 00:05:39,472 THIS IS THE RAINFALL IN 172 00:05:42,575 --> 00:05:40,840 LOS ANGELES. 173 00:05:44,777 --> 00:05:42,642 THE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN 174 00:05:45,111 --> 00:05:44,844 LOS ANGELES IS ABOUT 15 INCHES A 175 00:05:47,380 --> 00:05:45,178 YEAR. 176 00:05:49,849 --> 00:05:47,447 IF YOU'RE AT LONG BEACH, IT'S 177 00:05:54,487 --> 00:05:49,916 ABOUT 10 OR 12 INCHES A YEAR. 178 00:05:55,554 --> 00:05:54,554 UP HERE IN THE SAN GRAIB GABRIEL 179 00:05:56,222 --> 00:05:55,621 RAEL IT MANY BE 24 TO 30 INCHES 180 00:05:58,391 --> 00:05:56,289 A YEAR. 181 00:06:00,659 --> 00:05:58,458 A LOT DEPENDS ON TOPOGRAPHY, A 182 00:06:03,229 --> 00:06:00,726 LOT OF MICROCLIMATES. 183 00:06:06,499 --> 00:06:03,296 2004, THAT WAS A SWEET YEAR. 184 00:06:08,334 --> 00:06:06,566 THAT WAS ACTUALLY THE WETTEST 185 00:06:11,804 --> 00:06:08,401 YEAR IN THE LAST 140 YEARS, BUT 186 00:06:12,138 --> 00:06:11,871 AFTER THAT, WE HAD A LOT OF DRY 187 00:06:13,939 --> 00:06:12,205 YEARS. 188 00:06:16,208 --> 00:06:14,006 NOW, A COUPLE OF THOSE YEARS 189 00:06:17,843 --> 00:06:16,275 DON'T LOOK SO DRY. 190 00:06:19,545 --> 00:06:17,910 BUT ONE OF THE FEATURES WE HAVE 191 00:06:22,415 --> 00:06:19,612 HERE IN CALIFORNIA, ONE OF THE 192 00:06:23,115 --> 00:06:22,482 WAYS WE GET RAIN ARE THESE 193 00:06:25,651 --> 00:06:23,182 ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS. 194 00:06:26,919 --> 00:06:25,718 YOU KNOW, THEY COME AT US LIKE A 195 00:06:29,455 --> 00:06:26,986 FIRE HOSE. 196 00:06:32,124 --> 00:06:29,522 A GOOD EXAMPLE WAS THAT TWO 197 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:32,191 WEEKS BEFORE CHRISTMAS IN 2010. 198 00:06:34,860 --> 00:06:34,627 WE HAD TEN INCHES OF RAIN IN TEN 199 00:06:38,164 --> 00:06:34,927 DAYS. 200 00:06:38,497 --> 00:06:38,231 BUT IT COMES AT YOU SO FAST AND 201 00:06:39,698 --> 00:06:38,564 FURIOUS. 202 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:39,765 THOSE KIND OF EVENTS. 203 00:06:43,402 --> 00:06:41,667 IT'S LIKE SOMEBODY AIMING A FIRE 204 00:06:45,204 --> 00:06:43,469 HOSE AT YOU AND YOU'RE SITTING 205 00:06:46,872 --> 00:06:45,271 THERE WITH A CHAMPAGNE GLASS 206 00:06:48,707 --> 00:06:46,939 TRYING TO CATCH THE WATER. 207 00:06:50,209 --> 00:06:48,774 AND SO THE WAY WE'RE ENGINEERED 208 00:06:52,878 --> 00:06:50,276 HERE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, 209 00:06:53,746 --> 00:06:52,945 MOST OF THAT ENDS UP WHERE? 210 00:06:57,216 --> 00:06:53,813 IN THE OCEAN. 211 00:06:58,284 --> 00:06:57,283 MAN, YOU GUYS ARE GOOD. 212 00:07:01,187 --> 00:06:58,351 ALL RIGHT. 213 00:07:02,321 --> 00:07:01,254 SO LET'S TAKE THOSE SPHERIC 214 00:07:05,658 --> 00:07:02,388 RIVERS OUT OF EQUATION. 215 00:07:08,861 --> 00:07:05,725 SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS, WE'VE HAD 216 00:07:10,329 --> 00:07:08,928 TEN REALLY DRY YEARS IN A ROW. 217 00:07:10,830 --> 00:07:10,396 IF YOU TAKE THOSE SPHERIC 218 00:07:11,230 --> 00:07:10,897 RIVERS. 219 00:07:15,167 --> 00:07:11,297 ALL RIGHT? 220 00:07:16,168 --> 00:07:15,234 NOT FOUR YEARS. 221 00:07:18,337 --> 00:07:16,235 TEN YEARS. 222 00:07:19,705 --> 00:07:18,404 THE LAST FOUR YEARS HAVE JUST 223 00:07:21,407 --> 00:07:19,772 BEEN PUNISHING. 224 00:07:23,409 --> 00:07:21,474 NOW, THIS IS INTERESTING. 225 00:07:25,611 --> 00:07:23,476 IF YOU TAKE THE DRIEST FOUR 226 00:07:29,014 --> 00:07:25,678 CONSECUTIVE YEARS IN A ROW, YOU 227 00:07:33,953 --> 00:07:29,081 HAVE TO BE IN A ROW, FOUR IN A 228 00:07:36,222 --> 00:07:34,020 ROW, 2011 TO 2015 WAS 29 INCHES 229 00:07:38,624 --> 00:07:36,289 TOTAL FOR THE FOUR YEARS. 230 00:07:40,459 --> 00:07:38,691 SO IF THE AVERAGE IS 15 A YEAR, 231 00:07:42,127 --> 00:07:40,526 THAT MEANS FOR FOUR YEARS, WE 232 00:07:44,763 --> 00:07:42,194 HAD LESS THAN 50% OF OUR 233 00:07:46,232 --> 00:07:44,830 RAINFALL IN THE LAST FOUR YEARS. 234 00:07:47,500 --> 00:07:46,299 SOME OF THESE OTHER YEARS ARE 235 00:07:50,135 --> 00:07:47,567 REALLY INTERESTING TOO, BUT I 236 00:07:50,903 --> 00:07:50,202 DON'T WANT TO TAKE TOO LONG 237 00:07:51,303 --> 00:07:50,970 HERE. 238 00:07:53,205 --> 00:07:51,370 ALL RIGHT? 239 00:07:55,941 --> 00:07:53,272 47 TO '51, THAT WAS A BIG 240 00:07:57,276 --> 00:07:56,008 DROUGHT PERIOD, BY THE WAY, MID 241 00:07:59,645 --> 00:07:57,343 '40s TO THE MID '70s AND A 242 00:08:02,448 --> 00:07:59,712 COUPLE OF GUYS IN HERE WILL 243 00:08:02,982 --> 00:08:02,515 RECOGNIZE 1897, YOU KNOW, 1901. 244 00:08:07,219 --> 00:08:03,049 ALL RIGHT. 245 00:08:07,820 --> 00:08:07,286 I'M NOT GOING TO NAME ANY NAMES. 246 00:08:09,455 --> 00:08:07,887 ALL RIGHT. 247 00:08:10,789 --> 00:08:09,522 NOW, HOW CAN YOU REALLY TELL 248 00:08:13,659 --> 00:08:10,856 YOU'RE IN A DROUGHT? 249 00:08:16,262 --> 00:08:13,726 AND YOU KNOW, I HAVE EXPERIENCED 250 00:08:16,829 --> 00:08:16,329 THIS ALREADY FROM MY LOCAL WATER 251 00:08:17,229 --> 00:08:16,896 DISTRICT. 252 00:08:19,932 --> 00:08:17,296 ALL RIGHT? 253 00:08:21,100 --> 00:08:19,999 IF YOU HAVEN'T BEEN BUSTED YET, 254 00:08:22,334 --> 00:08:21,167 YOU WILL BE SOON. 255 00:08:23,469 --> 00:08:22,401 BECAUSE EVERYBODY HAS TO CUT 256 00:08:25,704 --> 00:08:23,536 BACK ON THEIR WATER. 257 00:08:26,038 --> 00:08:25,771 AND THAT'S A WHOLE LECTURE IN 258 00:08:27,473 --> 00:08:26,105 ITSELF. 259 00:08:28,173 --> 00:08:27,540 GOVERNOR BROWN, YOU KNOW I LOVE 260 00:08:29,808 --> 00:08:28,240 GOVERNOR BROWN. 261 00:08:30,209 --> 00:08:29,875 I VOTED FOR GOVERNOR BROWN FOUR 262 00:08:31,243 --> 00:08:30,276 TIMES. 263 00:08:31,677 --> 00:08:31,310 I LOVE THE GUY. 264 00:08:32,478 --> 00:08:31,744 ALL RIGHT? 265 00:08:34,980 --> 00:08:32,545 BUT HE'S RIGHT. 266 00:08:37,283 --> 00:08:35,047 WE'VE GOT TO CUT BACK ON WATER. 267 00:08:37,716 --> 00:08:37,350 SO THERE'S MY LITTLE 268 00:08:38,117 --> 00:08:37,783 ADVERTISEMENT. 269 00:08:41,086 --> 00:08:38,184 ALL RIGHT. 270 00:08:42,588 --> 00:08:41,153 SO LET'S LOOK AT THE LONG-TERM 271 00:08:43,522 --> 00:08:42,655 CLIMATE OF CALIFORNIA. 272 00:08:45,658 --> 00:08:43,589 THIS IS DOWNTOWN AGAIN. 273 00:08:47,226 --> 00:08:45,725 IT'S A NICE LONG RECORD, GOES 274 00:08:49,695 --> 00:08:47,293 BACK TO 1878. 275 00:08:50,796 --> 00:08:49,762 YOU SEE THE AVERAGE HERE IS 15 276 00:08:53,232 --> 00:08:50,863 INCHES A YEAR. 277 00:08:53,566 --> 00:08:53,299 SOME YEARS WE GET LESS THAN 4 278 00:08:55,634 --> 00:08:53,633 INCHES. 279 00:08:56,602 --> 00:08:55,701 WE'VE HAD OTHER YEARS WHERE 280 00:08:59,004 --> 00:08:56,669 THEY'RE ABOVE 30 INCHES. 281 00:09:01,173 --> 00:08:59,071 SO THERE'S A LOT OF VARIABILITY. 282 00:09:06,378 --> 00:09:01,240 BUT IF YOU LOOK CAREFULLY AT 283 00:09:07,613 --> 00:09:06,445 THIS CHART, ARE THERE MORE WET 284 00:09:08,614 --> 00:09:07,680 YEARS OR MORE DRY YEARS? 285 00:09:12,418 --> 00:09:08,681 DRY YEARS. 286 00:09:15,220 --> 00:09:12,485 IN FACT, SEVEN OUT OF TEN YEARS 287 00:09:15,621 --> 00:09:15,287 IN LOS ANGELES ARE BLOWS NORMAL 288 00:09:17,756 --> 00:09:15,688 RAINFALL. 289 00:09:19,725 --> 00:09:17,823 SO THE NEXT TIME SOMEBODY ASKS 290 00:09:21,260 --> 00:09:19,792 YOU, WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE FOR 291 00:09:22,294 --> 00:09:21,327 RAINFALL NEXT YEAR, WHAT ARE YOU 292 00:09:22,761 --> 00:09:22,361 GOING TO SAY? 293 00:09:23,896 --> 00:09:22,828 DRY. 294 00:09:25,164 --> 00:09:23,963 YOU'RE GOING TO BE RIGHT SEVEN 295 00:09:29,368 --> 00:09:25,231 OUT OF TEN TIMES. 296 00:09:29,668 --> 00:09:29,435 YOU WISH YOU HAD THOSE ODDS IN 297 00:09:30,069 --> 00:09:29,735 VEGAS. 298 00:09:33,472 --> 00:09:30,136 ALL RIGHT. 299 00:09:35,808 --> 00:09:33,539 SO IN MANY WAYS, WE'RE ALWAYS IN 300 00:09:36,208 --> 00:09:35,875 A DROUGHT IN SOUTHERN 301 00:09:39,778 --> 00:09:36,275 CALIFORNIA. 302 00:09:40,179 --> 00:09:39,845 IT'S A DRY PLACE, SOUTHERN 303 00:09:44,316 --> 00:09:40,246 CALIFORNIA. 304 00:09:45,918 --> 00:09:44,383 WITH JUST EPISODIC WET PERIODS. 305 00:09:47,119 --> 00:09:45,985 NOW, LET'S LOOK AT IT AGAIN A 306 00:09:48,787 --> 00:09:47,186 LITTLE MORE CAREFULLY. 307 00:09:50,022 --> 00:09:48,854 THIS IS THE SAME GRAPH, 15 308 00:09:52,257 --> 00:09:50,089 INCHES A YEAR. 309 00:09:56,362 --> 00:09:52,324 NOW FROM 1945 TO THE MID '70s WE 310 00:09:58,497 --> 00:09:56,429 IN A LOT OF DRY YEARS. 311 00:09:59,164 --> 00:09:58,564 THAT WAS A 30-YEAR DROUGHT, BY 312 00:10:00,666 --> 00:09:59,231 THE WAY. 313 00:10:02,735 --> 00:10:00,733 BUT IF YOU AVERAGE IT INSTEAD OF 314 00:10:03,836 --> 00:10:02,802 15 INCHES A YEAR, IT'S ABOUT 13 315 00:10:05,804 --> 00:10:03,903 INCHES A YEAR. 316 00:10:07,339 --> 00:10:05,871 AND THIS DROUGHT WHICH REALLY 317 00:10:08,907 --> 00:10:07,406 STARTED IN 2000, I THINK YOU'LL 318 00:10:10,576 --> 00:10:08,974 BE CONVINCED AT THE END OF THE 319 00:10:13,812 --> 00:10:10,643 TALK, AGAIN THE SAME THING ABOUT 320 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:13,879 13 INCHES. 321 00:10:16,415 --> 00:10:15,347 THE '80s AND THE '90s WERE 322 00:10:18,384 --> 00:10:16,482 UNUSUALLY WET. 323 00:10:19,485 --> 00:10:18,451 THOSE WERE GOOD YEARS. 324 00:10:21,387 --> 00:10:19,552 THOSE WHERE IS SWEET YEARS. 325 00:10:23,355 --> 00:10:21,454 BUT YOU KNOW, THERE WERE ABOUT 326 00:10:25,290 --> 00:10:23,422 AVERAGING ABOUT 17 INCHES. 327 00:10:27,192 --> 00:10:25,357 SO THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT 328 00:10:30,729 --> 00:10:27,259 THAT, THIS IS HOW PRECARIOUS WE 329 00:10:32,698 --> 00:10:30,796 ARE WITH WATER IN CALIFORNIA. 330 00:10:35,768 --> 00:10:32,765 YOU ALSO GET MINI DROUGHTS. 331 00:10:37,970 --> 00:10:35,835 REMEMBER THE '87 TO '92 DROUGHT? 332 00:10:39,271 --> 00:10:38,037 NOW, THAT WAS THE DRIEST FIVE 333 00:10:40,239 --> 00:10:39,338 CONSECUTIVE YEARS IN THE 334 00:10:41,140 --> 00:10:40,306 HISTORICAL RECORD. 335 00:10:43,208 --> 00:10:41,207 REMEMBER THAT'S WHEN EVERYBODY 336 00:10:45,077 --> 00:10:43,275 WAS PAINTING THEIR LAWN GREEN. 337 00:10:45,444 --> 00:10:45,144 >> THAT'S WHEN THE THAT FIRST 338 00:10:47,980 --> 00:10:45,511 STARTED. 339 00:10:50,282 --> 00:10:48,047 AND THAT AVERAGED FOR FIVE YEARS 340 00:10:51,984 --> 00:10:50,349 ONLY 9.5 INCHES AND SO YOU GET 341 00:10:53,819 --> 00:10:52,051 FIVE YEARS, YOU GET 20 YEARS, 342 00:10:57,022 --> 00:10:53,886 YOU GET TEN YEARS, YOU GET 30 343 00:10:58,757 --> 00:10:57,089 YEARS ON AND OFF, WET AND DRY. 344 00:11:01,393 --> 00:10:58,824 NOW, ANYBODY RECOGNIZE WHAT 345 00:11:04,129 --> 00:11:01,460 THESE PINK THINGS ARE? 346 00:11:07,666 --> 00:11:04,196 THIS IS -- IF YOU GET THIS ONE, 347 00:11:07,966 --> 00:11:07,733 ALL RIGHT, YOU GET THE PRIZE. 348 00:11:10,502 --> 00:11:08,033 OKAY. 349 00:11:11,203 --> 00:11:10,569 THAT'S A HARD QUESTION. 350 00:11:15,841 --> 00:11:11,270 THAT'S WHEN JERRY BROWN WAS 351 00:11:16,241 --> 00:11:15,908 GOVERNOR. 352 00:11:16,675 --> 00:11:16,308 ALL RIGHT? 353 00:11:19,111 --> 00:11:16,742 [ LAUGHTER ] 354 00:11:19,712 --> 00:11:19,178 NOW, AS I MENTIONED, I LOVE 355 00:11:21,747 --> 00:11:19,779 JERRY BROWN. 356 00:11:24,516 --> 00:11:21,814 I VOTED FOR HIM FOUR TIMES. 357 00:11:26,552 --> 00:11:24,583 NOW, THE FIRST TIME I VOTED FOR 358 00:11:28,554 --> 00:11:26,619 HIM, HE WAS ELECTED INTO A 359 00:11:30,589 --> 00:11:28,621 DROUGHT IN 1975. 360 00:11:34,126 --> 00:11:30,656 THAT WAS A BAD DROUGHT. 361 00:11:36,795 --> 00:11:34,193 REMEMBER IT CULMINATED IN 1977? 362 00:11:38,797 --> 00:11:36,862 BUT IN HIS SECOND TERM, END OF 363 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:38,864 HIS FIRST AND SECOND TERM, WE 364 00:11:44,403 --> 00:11:42,067 HAD SOME OF THE WETTEST YEARS IN 365 00:11:45,571 --> 00:11:44,470 THE EARLY LATE '70s, EARLY '80s. 366 00:11:46,438 --> 00:11:45,638 SEE THESE WET YEARS? 367 00:11:47,873 --> 00:11:46,505 THOSE ARE THREE. 368 00:11:49,441 --> 00:11:47,940 ONE THING YOU CAN SAY ABOUT 369 00:11:51,076 --> 00:11:49,508 JERRY BROWN, HE'S LUCKY. 370 00:11:53,612 --> 00:11:51,143 HE WAS ELECTED INTO A DROUGHT, 371 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:53,679 BUT IN HIS SECOND TERM, HE GOT 372 00:11:57,516 --> 00:11:54,547 BAILED OUT. 373 00:11:57,950 --> 00:11:57,583 NOW, I VOTED FOR HIM A THIRD 374 00:11:58,350 --> 00:11:58,017 TIME. 375 00:11:59,284 --> 00:11:58,417 ALL RIGHT? 376 00:11:59,885 --> 00:11:59,351 IN SPITE OF THE FACT WE WERE IN 377 00:12:02,054 --> 00:11:59,952 A DROUGHT. 378 00:12:04,189 --> 00:12:02,121 I THINK THAT'S WHY I VOTED FOR 379 00:12:06,058 --> 00:12:04,256 HIM BECAUSE HE WAS SO LUCKY THE 380 00:12:07,993 --> 00:12:06,125 FIRST TIME, ALL RIGHT, I FIGURE 381 00:12:10,529 --> 00:12:08,060 HE'S GOING TO GET US OUT OF THIS 382 00:12:10,929 --> 00:12:10,596 DROUGHT IN HIS FOURTH TERM 383 00:12:12,464 --> 00:12:10,996 COMING UP. 384 00:12:14,900 --> 00:12:12,531 THAT'S A JOKE, YOU GUYS. 385 00:12:15,167 --> 00:12:14,967 I'M NOT SURE HE'S GOING TO DO 386 00:12:15,834 --> 00:12:15,234 IT. 387 00:12:18,403 --> 00:12:15,901 ALL RIGHT. 388 00:12:18,704 --> 00:12:18,470 MY POINT IS, THE DROUGHT IS NOT 389 00:12:21,540 --> 00:12:18,771 ZERO. 390 00:12:24,476 --> 00:12:21,607 OR EVEN HALF OF NORMAL. 391 00:12:26,812 --> 00:12:24,543 IT'S ABOUT 85% OF AVERAGE, BUT 392 00:12:27,846 --> 00:12:26,879 OVER A FEW DECADES. 393 00:12:30,315 --> 00:12:27,913 NOT A FEW YEARS. 394 00:12:32,584 --> 00:12:30,382 A FEW DECADES. 395 00:12:32,985 --> 00:12:32,651 THAT'S ENOUGH TO SEND YOU TO 396 00:12:35,487 --> 00:12:33,052 YOUR KNEES. 397 00:12:39,391 --> 00:12:35,554 SO OUR LAST FOUR YEARS IS A B 398 00:12:39,758 --> 00:12:39,458 DROUGHT THAT'S PART OF A LONGER 399 00:12:40,692 --> 00:12:39,825 DROUGHT. 400 00:12:41,026 --> 00:12:40,759 NOW, THIS IS THE DROUGHT 401 00:12:42,561 --> 00:12:41,093 MONITOR. 402 00:12:43,095 --> 00:12:42,628 I'VE BEEN LOOKING AT THIS FOR 403 00:12:45,631 --> 00:12:43,162 MANY YEARS. 404 00:12:46,398 --> 00:12:45,698 IT MEASURES HOW INTENSE OVER THE 405 00:12:47,232 --> 00:12:46,465 CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES 406 00:12:49,902 --> 00:12:47,299 DROUGHTS ARE. 407 00:12:52,471 --> 00:12:49,969 AND YOU CAN SEE HERE THE DARKER 408 00:12:52,838 --> 00:12:52,538 NUMBERS, THOSE ARE EXCEPTIONAL 409 00:12:54,173 --> 00:12:52,905 DROUGHT. 410 00:12:56,408 --> 00:12:54,240 WE'VE BEEN IN EXCEPTIONAL 411 00:12:56,708 --> 00:12:56,475 DROUGHT HERE FOR A NUMBER OF 412 00:12:58,644 --> 00:12:56,775 YEARS. 413 00:13:00,512 --> 00:12:58,711 BUT YOU NOTICE THAT THE ENTIRE 414 00:13:02,214 --> 00:13:00,579 WEST IS IN A DROUGHT. 415 00:13:05,017 --> 00:13:02,281 NOT ONLY THAT, THAT DROUGHT GOES 416 00:13:05,384 --> 00:13:05,084 INTO MEXICO AND IT GOES INTO 417 00:13:05,784 --> 00:13:05,451 CANADA. 418 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:05,851 ALL RIGHT? 419 00:13:08,487 --> 00:13:08,187 SO THIS IS A LONG-LASTING 420 00:13:09,788 --> 00:13:08,554 DROUGHT. 421 00:13:12,257 --> 00:13:09,855 BUT THE IMPORTANT THING YOU HAVE 422 00:13:13,759 --> 00:13:12,324 TO REMEMBER ABOUT DROUGHTS, 423 00:13:15,561 --> 00:13:13,826 DROUGHTS ARE LARGE. 424 00:13:16,295 --> 00:13:15,628 THEY'RE NOT LOCAL. 425 00:13:19,431 --> 00:13:16,362 THEY'RE LARGE. 426 00:13:22,034 --> 00:13:19,498 SO FIRES FROM ALASKA ALL UP 427 00:13:23,535 --> 00:13:22,101 THROUGH BRITISHbcñç COLUMBIA, 428 00:13:25,170 --> 00:13:23,602 PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BY THE WAY, 429 00:13:25,971 --> 00:13:25,237 OREGON AND WASHINGTONING ARE 430 00:13:26,271 --> 00:13:26,038 PRETTY SEVERE DROUGHT BY THE 431 00:13:27,973 --> 00:13:26,338 WAY. 432 00:13:29,241 --> 00:13:28,040 AND THEY DON'T HAVE THE WATER 433 00:13:32,444 --> 00:13:29,308 INFRASTRUCTURE THAT WE DO. 434 00:13:33,979 --> 00:13:32,511 SO DROUGHTS ARE LARGE. 435 00:13:36,114 --> 00:13:34,046 NOW, THIS IS AS INTERESTING ONE. 436 00:13:37,349 --> 00:13:36,181 THIS IS THE DROUGHT MONITOR FROM 437 00:13:38,784 --> 00:13:37,416 A YEAR AGO. 438 00:13:39,918 --> 00:13:38,851 AND THIS IS THIS MAY. 439 00:13:43,856 --> 00:13:39,985 YOU NOTICE THE DIFFERENCE 440 00:13:45,424 --> 00:13:43,923 BETWEEN THE TWO CHARTS? 441 00:13:47,459 --> 00:13:45,491 THAT SERIOUS DROUGHT IN TEXAS 442 00:13:49,661 --> 00:13:47,526 AND OKLAHOMA AND THE LOWER 443 00:13:51,763 --> 00:13:49,728 MIDWEST, ALL OF A STUDIES 444 00:13:54,566 --> 00:13:51,830 APPEARED IN SIX WEEKS OF 445 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:54,633 TORRENTIAL RAINS IN TEXAS. 446 00:13:58,537 --> 00:13:55,067 ALL RIGHT? 447 00:14:02,374 --> 00:13:58,604 SO DROUGHTS END. 448 00:14:03,408 --> 00:14:02,441 BUT THIS IS SOMETHING YOU HAVE 449 00:14:04,943 --> 00:14:03,475 TO REMEMBER. 450 00:14:06,144 --> 00:14:05,010 AND THIS IS A VERY FAMOUS 451 00:14:08,247 --> 00:14:06,211 SCIENTIST ONCE SAID THIS. 452 00:14:08,580 --> 00:14:08,314 GREAT DROUGHTS END WITH GREAT 453 00:14:09,181 --> 00:14:08,647 FLOODS. 454 00:14:14,853 --> 00:14:09,248 YOU KNOW WHO THAT WAS? 455 00:14:15,387 --> 00:14:14,920 THAT WAS ME. 456 00:14:15,787 --> 00:14:15,454 [ LAUGHTER ] 457 00:14:17,522 --> 00:14:15,854 ALL RIGHT? 458 00:14:19,892 --> 00:14:17,589 AND SO THIS IS WHEN WE LOOK BACK 459 00:14:22,227 --> 00:14:19,959 IN HISTORY, OUR GREAT DROUGHTS 460 00:14:27,466 --> 00:14:22,294 TEND TO END IN GREAT FLOODS. 461 00:14:27,933 --> 00:14:27,533 SO BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR. 462 00:14:30,369 --> 00:14:28,000 ALL RIGHT? 463 00:14:34,973 --> 00:14:30,436 NOW, THIS IS JUST COOL. 464 00:14:36,308 --> 00:14:35,040 YOU KNOW, PICASSO ONCE SAID THAT 465 00:14:37,342 --> 00:14:36,375 GOODARDISTS BORROW AND GREAT 466 00:14:39,745 --> 00:14:37,409 ARTISTS STEAL. 467 00:14:40,045 --> 00:14:39,812 THE SAME THING IS TRUE FOR POWER 468 00:14:42,581 --> 00:14:40,112 POINT. 469 00:14:43,115 --> 00:14:42,648 I STOLE THIS ONE FROM THE "L.A. 470 00:14:44,750 --> 00:14:43,182 TIMES." 471 00:14:47,953 --> 00:14:44,817 BUT THE IMPORTANT THING HERE, 472 00:14:50,589 --> 00:14:48,020 THIS IS ABOUT FIVE YEARS OF THE 473 00:14:53,725 --> 00:14:50,656 DROUGHT MONITOR FROM 2011, 2015. 474 00:14:55,627 --> 00:14:53,792 AND YOU NOTICE HOW IT BUILDS 475 00:14:56,061 --> 00:14:55,694 OVER FOUR OR FIVE YEARS. 476 00:14:57,496 --> 00:14:56,128 OKAY. 477 00:15:01,033 --> 00:14:57,563 SO WHAT'S MY POINT? 478 00:15:02,367 --> 00:15:01,100 DROUGHTS ARE SLOW. 479 00:15:02,668 --> 00:15:02,434 SO THEY'RE LARGE. 480 00:15:07,606 --> 00:15:02,735 RIGHT? 481 00:15:11,209 --> 00:15:07,673 AND THEY'RE SLOW. 482 00:15:12,010 --> 00:15:11,276 NOW, I TOOK THIS SAME DATA, THIS 483 00:15:14,813 --> 00:15:12,077 DROUGHT MONITOR DATA AND I 484 00:15:16,648 --> 00:15:14,880 PLOTTED IT THIS WAY. 485 00:15:18,116 --> 00:15:16,715 ALL RIGHT. 486 00:15:18,917 --> 00:15:18,183 YOU CAN'T SEE IT THAT WELL FOR 487 00:15:20,452 --> 00:15:18,984 SOME REASON. 488 00:15:22,387 --> 00:15:20,519 ANY HOW WHAT IT'S SUPPOSED TO 489 00:15:24,523 --> 00:15:22,454 SHOW, THE DARKER COLORS TELL YOU 490 00:15:25,991 --> 00:15:24,590 HOW EXTREME THE DROUGHT IS. 491 00:15:29,394 --> 00:15:26,058 ZERO MEANS NO DAUGHTER. 492 00:15:29,761 --> 00:15:29,461 THE LIGHTER COLORS ARE MODERATE 493 00:15:31,396 --> 00:15:29,828 DROUGHT. 494 00:15:34,299 --> 00:15:31,463 THIS GOES BACKING TO 2000. 495 00:15:38,770 --> 00:15:34,366 SO THE POINT HERE WAS FROM 2000 496 00:15:39,338 --> 00:15:38,837 TO ABOUT 2004, WE WERE IN A 497 00:15:42,274 --> 00:15:39,405 BUILDING DROUGHT. 498 00:15:42,574 --> 00:15:42,341 THEN WE HAD A COUPLE OF YEARS OF 499 00:15:43,075 --> 00:15:42,641 RAIN. 500 00:15:45,110 --> 00:15:43,142 REMEMBER 2004? 501 00:15:45,410 --> 00:15:45,177 REMEMBER THAT WAS A REAL WET 502 00:15:47,446 --> 00:15:45,477 YEAR. 503 00:15:49,081 --> 00:15:47,513 BUT THEN THAT WAS FOLLOWED, THE 504 00:15:51,416 --> 00:15:49,148 DROUGHT CAME BACK. 505 00:15:51,883 --> 00:15:51,483 AND THEN 2010, WE HAD A LITTLE 506 00:15:56,421 --> 00:15:51,950 RAIN. 507 00:15:57,456 --> 00:15:56,488 AND THE LAST FOUR YEARS, AND SO 508 00:15:59,624 --> 00:15:57,523 WHAT'S THE POINT? 509 00:16:02,861 --> 00:15:59,691 IS THAT SINCE 2000, WE'VE HAD 510 00:16:03,996 --> 00:16:02,928 FIVE DRY YEARS. 511 00:16:06,465 --> 00:16:04,063 TWO WET YEARS. 512 00:16:07,265 --> 00:16:06,532 SO OUT OF THE LAST 15 YEARS, 513 00:16:09,901 --> 00:16:07,332 ONLY TWO HAVE BEEN WET. 514 00:16:12,270 --> 00:16:09,968 11 HAVE BEEN DRY. 515 00:16:16,208 --> 00:16:12,337 SO NOT ONLY ARE DROUGHTS LARGE 516 00:16:17,242 --> 00:16:16,275 AND SLOW, BUT THEY WAX AND WANE. 517 00:16:18,010 --> 00:16:17,309 SO IT'S LIKE THE GODFATHER. 518 00:16:19,277 --> 00:16:18,077 YOU KNOW? 519 00:16:19,911 --> 00:16:19,344 YOU THINK YOU'RE OUT AND THEN 520 00:16:25,550 --> 00:16:19,978 THEY PULL YOU BACK IN. 521 00:16:26,518 --> 00:16:25,617 THAT'S THE WAY DROUGHTS ARE. 522 00:16:30,355 --> 00:16:26,585 ALL RIGHT. 523 00:16:30,789 --> 00:16:30,422 NOW, LET'S LOOK AT SOMETHING 524 00:16:31,556 --> 00:16:30,856 TEMPERATURE. 525 00:16:33,759 --> 00:16:31,623 THIS IS CALIFORNIA WINTER 526 00:16:34,092 --> 00:16:33,826 TEMPERATURE FOR THE ENTIRE 527 00:16:34,493 --> 00:16:34,159 STATE. 528 00:16:36,728 --> 00:16:34,560 THE AVERAGE. 529 00:16:37,129 --> 00:16:36,795 THIS IS DECEMBER, JANUARY, AND 530 00:16:40,065 --> 00:16:37,196 FEBRUARY. 531 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:40,132 AND THIS IS THE RECORD, IT GOES 532 00:16:43,101 --> 00:16:41,467 BACK, THIS IS TO 1900. 533 00:16:45,337 --> 00:16:43,168 IT GOES UP AND DOWN. 534 00:16:45,904 --> 00:16:45,404 BUT IF YOU LOOK CAREFULLY, THE 535 00:16:49,408 --> 00:16:45,971 AVERAGE IS ABOUT HERE. 536 00:16:51,009 --> 00:16:49,475 NOTICE THERE'S A TREND. 537 00:16:51,410 --> 00:16:51,076 IN THE TEMPERATURE. 538 00:16:54,913 --> 00:16:51,477 ALL RIGHT? 539 00:16:55,347 --> 00:16:54,980 IN CALIFORNIA, WINTER 540 00:16:55,981 --> 00:16:55,414 TEMPERATURE. 541 00:16:58,283 --> 00:16:56,048 ALL RIGHT? 542 00:16:58,617 --> 00:16:58,350 NOW, THAT'S THE GLOBAL WARMING 543 00:17:00,318 --> 00:16:58,684 SIGNAL. 544 00:17:02,220 --> 00:17:00,385 SO THE AVERAGE WINTER 545 00:17:07,926 --> 00:17:02,287 TEMPERATURE FOR THE LAST 115 546 00:17:08,326 --> 00:17:07,993 YEARS HAS INCREASED 2.5 DEGREES 547 00:17:09,761 --> 00:17:08,393 FAHRENHEIT. 548 00:17:11,863 --> 00:17:09,828 SO WE ALL KNOW THAT WE'RE LIVING 549 00:17:12,898 --> 00:17:11,930 IN A WARMING WORLD AND THE WORLD 550 00:17:14,433 --> 00:17:12,965 IS MELTING. 551 00:17:16,468 --> 00:17:14,500 SEA LEVELS ARE RISING. 552 00:17:19,571 --> 00:17:16,535 BUT THERE IT IS IN THE DATA. 553 00:17:20,605 --> 00:17:19,638 AND IT'S HAD A TREMENDOUS IMPACT 554 00:17:22,074 --> 00:17:20,672 ON SOMETHING THAT'S REALLY VERY 555 00:17:23,075 --> 00:17:22,141 DEAR AND IMPORTANT TO EACH AND 556 00:17:26,011 --> 00:17:23,142 EVERY ONE OF US. 557 00:17:27,813 --> 00:17:26,078 AND THAT'S THE SNOWPACK. 558 00:17:29,614 --> 00:17:27,880 THE SNOW SEASONS COME LATER. 559 00:17:29,981 --> 00:17:29,681 THEY LEAVE EARLIER. 560 00:17:31,149 --> 00:17:30,048 ALL RIGHT? 561 00:17:35,687 --> 00:17:31,216 AND SO WE'RE GETTING ROBBED OF 562 00:17:37,055 --> 00:17:35,754 OUR WINTER SNOWPACK. 563 00:17:39,558 --> 00:17:37,122 NOW, THE LAST TWO YEARS HAVE 564 00:17:41,827 --> 00:17:39,625 BEEN UNBELIEVABLE. 565 00:17:44,229 --> 00:17:41,894 THAT NOT ONLY WAS IT WARM, AND 566 00:17:45,797 --> 00:17:44,296 THIS IS MOSTLY MEETOLOGY, BUT 567 00:17:48,266 --> 00:17:45,864 THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR THE 568 00:17:52,971 --> 00:17:48,333 WARMEST WINTER WAS 1935. 569 00:17:55,107 --> 00:17:53,038 ANYBODY REMEMBER WHAT THAT WAS? 570 00:17:56,708 --> 00:17:55,174 THAT WAS THE END OF THE DUST BOW 571 00:17:59,411 --> 00:17:56,775 DROUGHT. 572 00:18:01,546 --> 00:17:59,478 BUT THE LAST TWO YEARS HAVE BEEN 573 00:18:04,449 --> 00:18:01,613 A FULL TWO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT 574 00:18:06,618 --> 00:18:04,516 ABOVE THE PREVIOUS RECORD. 575 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:06,685 AND SO IT'S BEEN WARM. 576 00:18:09,988 --> 00:18:08,587 AND EVERYBODY KNOWS THIS. 577 00:18:11,289 --> 00:18:10,055 IT WAS A WARM WINTER. 578 00:18:12,624 --> 00:18:11,356 IT WAS A WARM SPRING. 579 00:18:17,562 --> 00:18:12,691 I THINK EXCEPT FOR MAY. 580 00:18:22,100 --> 00:18:17,629 AND IT'S A SCORCHING SUMMER. 581 00:18:22,501 --> 00:18:22,167 THAT WAS THE DUST BOWL YEARS. 582 00:18:25,103 --> 00:18:22,568 ALL RIGHT? 583 00:18:26,571 --> 00:18:25,170 SO THIS DROUGHT IS A SCORCHER. 584 00:18:26,972 --> 00:18:26,638 IT'S A HOT DROUGHT. 585 00:18:31,176 --> 00:18:27,039 ALL RIGHT? 586 00:18:32,978 --> 00:18:31,243 IT'S A PUNISHING DROUGHT. 587 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:33,045 SO HERE'S THE CALIFORNIA WHAT I 588 00:18:35,247 --> 00:18:34,947 CALL THE CALIFORNIA SNOW 589 00:18:37,849 --> 00:18:35,314 DROUGHT. 590 00:18:38,884 --> 00:18:37,916 SO HERE'S AVERAGE SNOWFALL HERE. 591 00:18:42,354 --> 00:18:38,951 THE GREEN IS ABOVE AVERAGE. 592 00:18:46,791 --> 00:18:42,421 THE RED IS BELOW AVERAGE. 593 00:18:49,361 --> 00:18:46,858 IT GOES FROM 1982 TONIGHT 2015. 594 00:18:49,895 --> 00:18:49,428 AND SO YOU SEE WE HAD WET 595 00:18:53,031 --> 00:18:49,962 PERIODS HERE. 596 00:18:56,935 --> 00:18:53,098 THE 1980s AND THE '90s WITH THE 597 00:18:57,302 --> 00:18:57,002 MINI DROUGHT '887 TO '92. 598 00:18:59,304 --> 00:18:57,369 SNOWPACK. 599 00:19:00,705 --> 00:18:59,371 SINCE 2000, WE'VE HAD A DROUGHT, 600 00:19:02,541 --> 00:19:00,772 WET, DROUGHT, WET. 601 00:19:03,975 --> 00:19:02,608 THAT'S WHAT I JUST SHOWED YOU 602 00:19:09,047 --> 00:19:04,042 EARLIER WHERE THE DROUGHT WAXED 603 00:19:09,648 --> 00:19:09,114 AND WANED. 604 00:19:13,919 --> 00:19:09,715 RIGHT? 605 00:19:14,286 --> 00:19:13,986 BUT SO HOT PLUS DRY EQUALS PUNY 606 00:19:16,421 --> 00:19:14,353 SNOWPACK. 607 00:19:18,523 --> 00:19:16,488 SO WE'RE GOING TO -- YOU HAVE TO 608 00:19:20,358 --> 00:19:18,590 REMEMBER THIS. 609 00:19:22,794 --> 00:19:20,425 1982, '83 EL NINO BECAUSE WE'RE 610 00:19:24,262 --> 00:19:22,861 GOING TO TALK ABOUT EL NINO. 611 00:19:26,331 --> 00:19:24,329 ESSENTIALLY IT DELIVERED TWICE 612 00:19:29,367 --> 00:19:26,398 OUR NORMAL SNOWPACK. 613 00:19:29,968 --> 00:19:29,434 THAT WAS SWEET. 614 00:19:35,173 --> 00:19:30,035 ALL RIGHT? 615 00:19:37,342 --> 00:19:35,240 AND THE LATEST BIG EL NINO '97, 616 00:19:39,211 --> 00:19:37,409 '98 DELIVERED ABOUT THE SAME. 617 00:19:41,046 --> 00:19:39,278 ONE THING ABOUT EL NINOS, THE 618 00:19:43,682 --> 00:19:41,113 BIG ONES, THEY DELIVER WHEN IT 619 00:19:44,282 --> 00:19:43,749 COMES TO SNOWPACK. 620 00:19:47,419 --> 00:19:44,349 ALL RIGHT? 621 00:19:48,053 --> 00:19:47,486 BUT THIS WINTER, SOMETHING 622 00:19:50,922 --> 00:19:48,120 UNBELIEVABLE HAPPENED. 623 00:19:53,024 --> 00:19:50,989 AT THE END OF THE SNOW SEASON IN 624 00:19:54,593 --> 00:19:53,091 APRIL, THERE WAS NO SNOW. 625 00:19:55,260 --> 00:19:54,660 FIRST TIME IT EVER HAPPENED IN 626 00:19:58,129 --> 00:19:55,327 CALIFORNIA HISTORY. 627 00:20:00,198 --> 00:19:58,196 AND USUALLY, THE SNOWPACK IN THE 628 00:20:00,932 --> 00:20:00,265 SPRING SPG 30% OF OUR DRINKING 629 00:20:03,602 --> 00:20:00,999 WATER GOING THROUGH THE SUMMER 630 00:20:06,338 --> 00:20:03,669 INTO THE FALL. 631 00:20:07,872 --> 00:20:06,405 AS IT SLOWLY MELTS OUT OF THE 632 00:20:09,140 --> 00:20:07,939 SIERRA, GOES INTO THE NORTHERN 633 00:20:10,675 --> 00:20:09,207 RESERVOIRS, COMES DOWN THE 634 00:20:13,311 --> 00:20:10,742 SACRAMENTO RIVER, WE GRAB IT AND 635 00:20:15,413 --> 00:20:13,378 PUT IT IN THE CALIFORNIA 636 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:15,480 AUTOMATIC QUESTION DUCKETT, 637 00:20:18,683 --> 00:20:15,947 RIGHT? 638 00:20:20,218 --> 00:20:18,750 THE MWD PUTS IT IN LAKE CA SAYIC 639 00:20:22,020 --> 00:20:20,285 AND DISTRIBUTES IT TO EACH AND 640 00:20:23,655 --> 00:20:22,087 EVERY ONE OF YOU BUT THAT WAS 641 00:20:24,089 --> 00:20:23,722 TAKEN OFF THE BOARD THIS SUMMER. 642 00:20:25,991 --> 00:20:24,156 ALL RIGHT. 643 00:20:27,726 --> 00:20:26,058 LET'S DO IT AGAIN. 644 00:20:28,293 --> 00:20:27,793 LET'S BEAT IT TO DEATH HERE. 645 00:20:31,463 --> 00:20:28,360 AGAIN, THIS IS 1900. 646 00:20:35,367 --> 00:20:31,530 TO THE PRESENT. 647 00:20:37,502 --> 00:20:35,434 SO I'M PUTTING IT HOT PLUS DRY 648 00:20:39,604 --> 00:20:37,569 TOGETHER IN SOMETHING CALLED 649 00:20:42,007 --> 00:20:39,671 PRECIPITATION ENVIROTRANSPORE 650 00:20:43,208 --> 00:20:42,074 RATION INDEX. 651 00:20:46,578 --> 00:20:43,275 JUST THINK OF IT, THIS IS WHEN 652 00:20:48,647 --> 00:20:46,645 YOU PUT RAIN AND HEAT TOGETHER. 653 00:20:50,048 --> 00:20:48,714 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 20th 654 00:20:50,448 --> 00:20:50,115 CENTURY, IT WAS WET. 655 00:20:53,351 --> 00:20:50,515 ALL RIGHT? 656 00:20:53,718 --> 00:20:53,418 THEN WE HIT THE GREAT DUST BOWL 657 00:20:55,987 --> 00:20:53,785 DROUGHT. 658 00:20:59,791 --> 00:20:56,054 AND THEN THE EARLY '40s TO THE 659 00:21:01,159 --> 00:20:59,858 MID '40s WERE A VERY WET PERIOD. 660 00:21:03,228 --> 00:21:01,226 EVERYBODY, DO YOU REMEMBER THE 661 00:21:03,728 --> 00:21:03,295 1941 EL NINO, RIGHT? 662 00:21:04,963 --> 00:21:03,795 >> YEAH. 663 00:21:08,199 --> 00:21:05,030 >> I REMEMBER IT. 664 00:21:08,500 --> 00:21:08,266 THAT WAS A GREAT EL NINO IN 665 00:21:12,003 --> 00:21:08,567 1941. 666 00:21:12,270 --> 00:21:12,070 HAD A BIG IMPACT ON WORLD WAR 667 00:21:14,773 --> 00:21:12,337 II. 668 00:21:16,241 --> 00:21:14,840 THEN WE WENT FROM THE MID '40s 669 00:21:18,143 --> 00:21:16,308 TO THE MID '70s WHERE IT WAS 670 00:21:18,510 --> 00:21:18,210 MOSTLY DROUGHT BUT WE WERE IN 671 00:21:20,312 --> 00:21:18,577 AND OUT. 672 00:21:23,348 --> 00:21:20,379 THE WET '80s AND THE '90s AND 673 00:21:24,316 --> 00:21:23,415 THEN HERE WE ARE WAXING AND 674 00:21:25,984 --> 00:21:24,383 WANING SINCE 2000. 675 00:21:27,719 --> 00:21:26,051 BUT THE INTERESTING THING HERE 676 00:21:30,255 --> 00:21:27,786 IS THAT I HAVE TO BE CAREFUL NOT 677 00:21:31,756 --> 00:21:30,322 TO DRAW A TREND ON THIS BECAUSE 678 00:21:33,558 --> 00:21:31,823 IT STARTS WITH A WET PERIOD AND 679 00:21:34,025 --> 00:21:33,625 ENDS WITH A DRY PERIOD. 680 00:21:37,595 --> 00:21:34,092 ALL RIGHT? 681 00:21:39,531 --> 00:21:37,662 BUT THE FACT IS, WHEN YOU LOOK 682 00:21:42,634 --> 00:21:39,598 AT THAT, YOU GET THE IDEA THAT 683 00:21:44,669 --> 00:21:42,701 MAYBE DROUGHTS ARE INTENSIFYING. 684 00:21:47,405 --> 00:21:44,736 AND THAT'S A POSSIBILITY. 685 00:21:48,306 --> 00:21:47,472 BUT I'M CAREFUL NOT TO OVERSTATE 686 00:21:50,709 --> 00:21:48,373 THE DATA. 687 00:21:52,577 --> 00:21:50,776 BUT IT MAKES SENSE. 688 00:21:54,279 --> 00:21:52,644 BECAUSE THE SNOWPACK IS 689 00:21:55,580 --> 00:21:54,346 DISAPPEARING SLOWLY FROM THE 690 00:21:56,281 --> 00:21:55,647 CALIFORNIA SIERRAS, AND 691 00:22:01,152 --> 00:21:56,348 TEMPERATURES ARE DEFINITELY 692 00:22:03,088 --> 00:22:01,219 RISING. 693 00:22:05,156 --> 00:22:03,155 SO ONE OF THE THINGS WE SEE 694 00:22:05,523 --> 00:22:05,223 HERE, THIS THIS IS LAKE 695 00:22:07,125 --> 00:22:05,590 OROVILLE. 696 00:22:08,326 --> 00:22:07,192 THIS IS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, 697 00:22:10,462 --> 00:22:08,393 LARGEST MANMADE RESERVOIR IN THE 698 00:22:13,031 --> 00:22:10,529 STATE OF CALIFORNIA. 699 00:22:15,066 --> 00:22:13,098 USUALLY AT THIS TIME OF THE 700 00:22:16,868 --> 00:22:15,133 YEAR, YOU WANT IT FULL OF SIERRA 701 00:22:17,402 --> 00:22:16,935 SNOW MELT SO THAT WE CAN USE IT 702 00:22:20,205 --> 00:22:17,469 INTO THE FALL. 703 00:22:22,674 --> 00:22:20,272 IT'S NEVER BEEN THIS LOW BEFORE. 704 00:22:24,509 --> 00:22:22,741 28% OF CAPACITY.JzKv 705 00:22:26,911 --> 00:22:24,576 AND THIS IS TRUE OF RESERVOIRS 706 00:22:28,713 --> 00:22:26,978 UP AND DOWN THE STATE OF 707 00:22:29,948 --> 00:22:28,780 CALIFORNIA. 708 00:22:33,485 --> 00:22:30,015 LARGE AND SMALL. 709 00:22:35,887 --> 00:22:33,552 SO WE'RE DEFINITELY ON RESERVES. 710 00:22:38,022 --> 00:22:35,954 ONE OF THE BIGGEST IMPACTS OF 711 00:22:39,958 --> 00:22:38,089 THIS DROUGHT IS IT'S BEEN LONG 712 00:22:41,593 --> 00:22:40,025 LASTING. 713 00:22:44,596 --> 00:22:41,660 IT'S BEEN HOT. 714 00:22:46,131 --> 00:22:44,663 AND THE WATER TABLE IN THE WILD 715 00:22:47,799 --> 00:22:46,198 LEFT-HANDS AND THE GREAT 716 00:22:49,601 --> 00:22:47,866 NATIONAL FORESTS IN CALIFORNIA, 717 00:22:50,034 --> 00:22:49,668 OF COURSE, HAVE BEEN WAY 718 00:22:51,569 --> 00:22:50,101 OVERGROWN. 719 00:22:52,937 --> 00:22:51,636 THERE'S WAY TOO MANY TREES. 720 00:22:54,806 --> 00:22:53,004 BUT THAT'S ANOTHER STORY. 721 00:22:57,342 --> 00:22:54,873 BUT BECAUSE WHEN THE WATER TABLE 722 00:22:59,744 --> 00:22:57,409 GOES DOWN, THE TREES STOP 723 00:23:01,146 --> 00:22:59,811 PRODUCING SAP, AND THEN THE BARK 724 00:23:03,014 --> 00:23:01,213 BEETLES MOVE IN. 725 00:23:06,284 --> 00:23:03,081 SO THERE'S OVER 15 MILLION DEAD 726 00:23:06,684 --> 00:23:06,351 TREES IN THE NATIONAL FORESTS IN 727 00:23:09,854 --> 00:23:06,751 CALIFORNIA. 728 00:23:11,055 --> 00:23:09,921 MORE WHEN YOU GO TO THE ROCKIES. 729 00:23:13,224 --> 00:23:11,122 MORE IN WASHINGTON AND OREGON 730 00:23:14,993 --> 00:23:13,291 AND IT'S REALLY BAD IN BRITISH 731 00:23:16,828 --> 00:23:15,060 COLUMBIA AND SASKATCHEWAN. 732 00:23:18,229 --> 00:23:16,895 SO THERE'S AN AWFUL LOT OF DEAD 733 00:23:21,099 --> 00:23:18,296 TREES AND IT'S HAVING A HUGE 734 00:23:23,368 --> 00:23:21,166 IMPACT ON THE EAN COSYSTEMS, THE 735 00:23:25,437 --> 00:23:23,435 NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS. 736 00:23:27,272 --> 00:23:25,504 AND, OF COURSE, THE BOTTOM LINE 737 00:23:28,573 --> 00:23:27,339 HERE, THIS IS ALREADY THE 738 00:23:30,141 --> 00:23:28,640 BEGINNING OF THE WORST FIRE 739 00:23:30,442 --> 00:23:30,208 SEASON WE'VE EVER SEEN IN THE 740 00:23:32,777 --> 00:23:30,509 WEST. 741 00:23:34,245 --> 00:23:32,844 AND REMEMBER, THE FIRE SEASON 742 00:23:37,248 --> 00:23:34,312 DOESN'T PEAK UNTIL SEPTEMBER, 743 00:23:39,451 --> 00:23:37,315 OCTOBER, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER. 744 00:23:39,884 --> 00:23:39,518 SANTA ANA SEASON IS NOVEMBER, 745 00:23:42,053 --> 00:23:39,951 DECEMBER. 746 00:23:45,857 --> 00:23:42,120 AND SO THIS IS PRETTY PUNISHING 747 00:23:48,293 --> 00:23:45,924 AND PRETTY COSTLY, TOO. 748 00:23:49,227 --> 00:23:48,360 NOW, DID ANYBODY SEE THIS 749 00:23:51,296 --> 00:23:49,294 DROUGHT COMING? 750 00:23:51,796 --> 00:23:51,363 THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. 751 00:23:53,498 --> 00:23:51,863 ALL RIGHT? 752 00:23:56,201 --> 00:23:53,565 NOW, REMEMBER WHEN YOU WERE A 753 00:23:58,136 --> 00:23:56,268 KID AND YOU DID SOMETHING WRONG? 754 00:23:58,937 --> 00:23:58,203 AND YOUR MOTHER WOULD SAY, I 755 00:24:00,772 --> 00:23:59,004 TOLD YOU SO? 756 00:24:02,540 --> 00:24:00,839 DIDN'T YOU HATE THAT? 757 00:24:04,242 --> 00:24:02,607 I ALWAYS HATED THAT WHEN MY 758 00:24:08,012 --> 00:24:04,309 MOTHER SAID I TOLD YOU SO. 759 00:24:09,013 --> 00:24:08,079 JUST REMEMBER THAT FOR A MINUTE. 760 00:24:10,982 --> 00:24:09,080 OKAY. 761 00:24:13,351 --> 00:24:11,049 NOW, THIS WAS THE FRONT PAGE OF 762 00:24:16,554 --> 00:24:13,418 THE PASADENA STAR NEWS. 763 00:24:17,288 --> 00:24:16,621 ANYBODY RECOGNIZE THAT DASHING 764 00:24:19,123 --> 00:24:17,355 OLD GUY? 765 00:24:19,557 --> 00:24:19,190 I WAS A LITTLE YOUNGER THEN, YOU 766 00:24:20,425 --> 00:24:19,624 KNOW. 767 00:24:22,026 --> 00:24:20,492 LOOKED BETTER. 768 00:24:22,327 --> 00:24:22,093 THAT'S LIFE. 769 00:24:25,797 --> 00:24:22,394 YEAH. 770 00:24:28,500 --> 00:24:25,864 BUT LET'S SEE WHAT IT SAYS HERE. 771 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:28,567 WATER SHIFT SPELLS DROUGHT. 772 00:24:30,368 --> 00:24:29,467 ALL RIGHT? 773 00:24:31,836 --> 00:24:30,435 OCEANOGRAPHER SAYS PACIFIC HOLDS 774 00:24:32,237 --> 00:24:31,903 THE KEY. 775 00:24:33,905 --> 00:24:32,304 ALL RIGHT? 776 00:24:35,974 --> 00:24:33,972 SO DROUGHT, PACIFIC, KEY. 777 00:24:38,176 --> 00:24:36,041 NOW, WHAT WAS THE DATE ON THAT? 778 00:24:42,146 --> 00:24:38,243 CAN ANYBODY READ THAT? 779 00:24:42,413 --> 00:24:42,213 NO, THAT'S -- EVEN I CAN'T READ 780 00:24:46,117 --> 00:24:42,480 IT. 781 00:24:46,417 --> 00:24:46,184 SEPTEMBER 21st IT, 2002. 782 00:24:48,586 --> 00:24:46,484 OKAY? 783 00:24:50,989 --> 00:24:48,653 SO ESSENTIALLY I STARTED TALKING 784 00:24:55,860 --> 00:24:51,056 ABOUT THIS DROUGHT IN 2002. 785 00:25:00,798 --> 00:24:55,927 SO THE ONE THING I WANT TO SAY 786 00:25:01,432 --> 00:25:00,865 ABOUT THAT IS, HUH? 787 00:25:03,801 --> 00:25:01,499 ALL RIGHT. 788 00:25:05,003 --> 00:25:03,868 SO THE REAL QUESTION, ARE THESE 789 00:25:09,707 --> 00:25:05,070 DROUGHTS PREDICTABLE? 790 00:25:10,508 --> 00:25:09,774 DO CAN I REALLY KNOW WHAT I'M 791 00:25:11,376 --> 00:25:10,575 TALKING ABOUT? 792 00:25:13,811 --> 00:25:11,443 MAYBE.MÑ 793 00:25:15,513 --> 00:25:13,878 SO WHY DID I SAY THAT? 794 00:25:15,947 --> 00:25:15,580 YOU KNOW, ON WHAT BASIS DID I 795 00:25:18,983 --> 00:25:16,014 SAY HA? 796 00:25:19,384 --> 00:25:19,050 YOU KNOW, WAS THAT JUST A WILD 797 00:25:21,219 --> 00:25:19,451 SHOT? 798 00:25:22,287 --> 00:25:21,286 OR, NO, I SAID IT BECAUSE IT'S 799 00:25:23,888 --> 00:25:22,354 THE PDO. 800 00:25:25,456 --> 00:25:23,955 WHAT'S THE PDO? 801 00:25:26,691 --> 00:25:25,523 YOU KNOW, WHAT DO YOU MEAN, 802 00:25:28,092 --> 00:25:26,758 WHAT'S THE PDO. 803 00:25:29,394 --> 00:25:28,159 THE QUESTION IS HERE, THIS IS 804 00:25:30,094 --> 00:25:29,461 WHERE WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT 805 00:25:31,696 --> 00:25:30,161 PHASE OF THE TALK. 806 00:25:33,164 --> 00:25:31,763 WHAT'S THE PDO. 807 00:25:34,799 --> 00:25:33,231 WE ALL HAVE A LITTLE IDEA OF 808 00:25:37,468 --> 00:25:34,866 WHAT EL NINO IS. 809 00:25:39,137 --> 00:25:37,535 WHAT GOES ON IN THE PACIFIC, SO 810 00:25:42,674 --> 00:25:39,204 I'M NOW I'M GOING TO TELL YOU 811 00:25:44,676 --> 00:25:42,741 ABOUT THE PDO. 812 00:25:45,510 --> 00:25:44,743 SO SOME REALLY SMART MARINE 813 00:25:47,812 --> 00:25:45,577 ECOLOGISTS FROM THE UNIVERSITY 814 00:25:49,147 --> 00:25:47,879 OF WASHINGTON LOOKED AT 100 815 00:25:51,482 --> 00:25:49,214 YEARS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE 816 00:25:53,718 --> 00:25:51,549 DATA IN THE PACIFIC AND THEY DID 817 00:25:57,255 --> 00:25:53,785 A FANCY STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF 818 00:25:58,022 --> 00:25:57,322 THE DATA, ESSENTIALLY LEAST 819 00:25:59,824 --> 00:25:58,089 SQUARE FIT IN TIME AND SPACE AND 820 00:26:00,191 --> 00:25:59,891 THEY CAME UP WITH TWO BIG 821 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:00,258 PATTERNS. 822 00:26:03,895 --> 00:26:02,227 THIS IS THE PACIFIC, COVERS 30% 823 00:26:05,330 --> 00:26:03,962 OF THE PLANET AND ONE PATTERN 824 00:26:07,799 --> 00:26:05,397 LOOKED LIKE A WEDGE OF WARM 825 00:26:08,733 --> 00:26:07,866 WATER COMING OFF THE AMERICAS, 826 00:26:10,802 --> 00:26:08,800 RED IS WARM. 827 00:26:11,169 --> 00:26:10,869 OF SURROUNDED BY A BLUE 828 00:26:13,004 --> 00:26:11,236 HORSESHOE. 829 00:26:14,939 --> 00:26:13,071 IT'S A BIG PATTERN, GOES FROM 830 00:26:16,608 --> 00:26:15,006 THE ALLUSIONS TO ANTARCTICA AND 831 00:26:19,143 --> 00:26:16,675 THE AMERICAS TO ASIA. 832 00:26:21,346 --> 00:26:19,210 THEN THEY SAW A SECOND PATTERN. 833 00:26:23,181 --> 00:26:21,413 WHERE THERE WAS A COOL WEDGE 834 00:26:25,917 --> 00:26:23,248 SURROUNDED BY A WARM HORSESHOE. 835 00:26:27,151 --> 00:26:25,984 SO IT'S REALLY THE SAME PATTERN, 836 00:26:27,552 --> 00:26:27,218 IT JUST FLIPPED. 837 00:26:28,853 --> 00:26:27,619 ALL RIGHT? 838 00:26:30,521 --> 00:26:28,920 IT'S THE SAME PATTERN. 839 00:26:32,890 --> 00:26:30,588 SO THAT'S PRETTY COOL. 840 00:26:35,193 --> 00:26:32,957 THE OTHER THING ABOUT IT IS THAT 841 00:26:37,095 --> 00:26:35,260 LOOKS LIKE A BIG EL NINO AND 842 00:26:39,297 --> 00:26:37,162 THAT LOOKS LIKE A BIG LA NINA. 843 00:26:41,733 --> 00:26:39,364 SO THE QUESTION IS, THAT'S COOL. 844 00:26:43,568 --> 00:26:41,800 BUT HOW DOES THAT PATTERN CHANGE 845 00:26:45,336 --> 00:26:43,635 OVER TIME? 846 00:26:46,437 --> 00:26:45,403 THIS TELLS US I KNOW, I HATE TO 847 00:26:49,007 --> 00:26:46,504 DO THIS TO YOU. 848 00:26:52,343 --> 00:26:49,074 I HATE THESE GRAPHS BUT LET'S 849 00:26:55,179 --> 00:26:52,410 LOOK BACK TO 1900. 850 00:26:57,115 --> 00:26:55,246 BLUE MEANS WHEN IT'S IN THE BLUE 851 00:26:57,715 --> 00:26:57,182 PHASE, IT MEANS IT'S IN THE COOL 852 00:26:58,049 --> 00:26:57,782 PHASE. 853 00:26:59,217 --> 00:26:58,116 RIGHT? 854 00:27:01,085 --> 00:26:59,284 OR THE NEGATIVE PHASE. 855 00:27:02,987 --> 00:27:01,152 WHEN IT'S IN THE RED PHASE, LIKE 856 00:27:04,188 --> 00:27:03,054 IN THE '80s AND THE '90s, IT'S 857 00:27:06,391 --> 00:27:04,255 THIS WAY. 858 00:27:10,495 --> 00:27:06,458 AND LATELY SINCE 2000, IT'S 859 00:27:10,995 --> 00:27:10,562 MOSTLY BEEN IN THE BLUE PHASE. 860 00:27:12,697 --> 00:27:11,062 OKAY. 861 00:27:15,199 --> 00:27:12,764 SO BECAUSE MOST OF THE OCEAN 862 00:27:18,102 --> 00:27:15,266 ISN'T IN THE TROPICS, WHEN YOU 863 00:27:19,704 --> 00:27:18,169 GET THE POSITIVE OR THE WARM PDO 864 00:27:23,408 --> 00:27:19,771 PATTERN, NOT ONLY WARMS THE 865 00:27:25,076 --> 00:27:23,475 PACIFIC, IT ACTUALLY WARMS THE 866 00:27:26,844 --> 00:27:25,143 ENTIRE EARTH. 867 00:27:28,346 --> 00:27:26,911 AND WHEN IT COOLS THE PACIFIC, 868 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:28,413 IT ACTUALLY COOLS THE ENTIRE 869 00:27:30,148 --> 00:27:28,747 EARTH. 870 00:27:31,683 --> 00:27:30,215 THAT'S A DIFFERENT TALK. 871 00:27:33,651 --> 00:27:31,750 THAT'S THE TALK ABOUT THE 872 00:27:35,787 --> 00:27:33,718 HIATUS, THE WARMING AND COOLING 873 00:27:38,489 --> 00:27:35,854 OF THE GLOBAL WARMING CURVE. 874 00:27:43,161 --> 00:27:38,556 BUT ESSENTIALLY SINCE 2000, 875 00:27:44,495 --> 00:27:43,228 WE'VE BEEN IN A COOL FACE, A 876 00:27:47,398 --> 00:27:44,562 NEGATIVE PHASE. 877 00:27:48,666 --> 00:27:47,465 BACK IN THE MID '40s TO THE 878 00:27:49,801 --> 00:27:48,733 MID-'70s REMEMBER WHEN JER RAY 879 00:27:52,236 --> 00:27:49,868 BROWN WAS FIRST ELECTED AND HE 880 00:27:53,037 --> 00:27:52,303 WAS IN A DROUGHT, THAT WAS A 881 00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:53,104 30-YEAR DROUGHT. 882 00:27:57,141 --> 00:27:55,707 WE'RE ALSO IN A COOL PHASE. 883 00:27:59,243 --> 00:27:57,208 IN THE '80s AND THE '90s WHEN IT 884 00:28:00,078 --> 00:27:59,310 WAS WET, WE LOVED THE '80s AND 885 00:28:02,547 --> 00:28:00,145 THE 90s. 886 00:28:06,017 --> 00:28:02,614 IT WAS IN THIS WARM PHASE. 887 00:28:09,454 --> 00:28:06,084 AND SO THIS IS A LARGE PATTERN 888 00:28:10,822 --> 00:28:09,521 THAT SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY. 889 00:28:13,958 --> 00:28:10,889 SOMETIMES IT STICKS AROUND FOR A 890 00:28:14,492 --> 00:28:14,025 COUPLE OF DECADES. 891 00:28:16,360 --> 00:28:14,559 ALL RIGHT? 892 00:28:17,028 --> 00:28:16,427 AND SO WHAT HAS THAT GOT TO DO 893 00:28:18,663 --> 00:28:17,095 WITH THE DROUGHT? 894 00:28:19,130 --> 00:28:18,730 SO JUST FOR THE FUN OF IT, I DID 895 00:28:21,733 --> 00:28:19,197 THIS ONCE. 896 00:28:24,635 --> 00:28:21,800 I PLOTTED THAT PDO INDEX THAT 897 00:28:26,170 --> 00:28:24,702 YOU SEE DOWN HERE AT THE BOTTOM 898 00:28:28,339 --> 00:28:26,237 AGAINST L.A. RAINFALL. 899 00:28:31,142 --> 00:28:28,406 AND IT'S NOT A PERFECT FIT. 900 00:28:36,114 --> 00:28:31,209 BUT IN SOME WAYS, IF I KNOW WHAT 901 00:28:36,848 --> 00:28:36,181 PHASE OF THE PDO WE'RE IN, I 902 00:28:39,217 --> 00:28:36,915 ESSENTIALLY CAN FORECAST L.A. 903 00:28:41,085 --> 00:28:39,284 RAINFALL PRETTY GOOD. 904 00:28:41,385 --> 00:28:41,152 AND I'VE BEEN DOING THAT FOR 905 00:28:42,987 --> 00:28:41,452 YEARS. 906 00:28:43,387 --> 00:28:43,054 EVERYBODY THOUGHT I WAS A 907 00:28:47,024 --> 00:28:43,454 MAGICIAN. 908 00:28:47,391 --> 00:28:47,091 NOW YOU KNOW MY SECRET. 909 00:28:50,094 --> 00:28:47,458 ALL RIGHT? 910 00:28:51,696 --> 00:28:50,161 SO WE'RE IN A WARP PHASE. 911 00:28:51,996 --> 00:28:51,763 L.A. AND CALIFORNIA TEND TO BE 912 00:28:54,499 --> 00:28:52,063 WET. 913 00:28:55,333 --> 00:28:54,566 WE'RE IN A COOL PHASE, LIKE THE 914 00:28:58,402 --> 00:28:55,400 LAST 15 YEARS, L.A. TENDS TO BE 915 00:29:01,439 --> 00:28:58,469 DRY. 916 00:29:03,908 --> 00:29:01,506 NOW, WHY IS THAT? 917 00:29:07,411 --> 00:29:03,975 WELL, THE PACIFIC HAS A HUGE 918 00:29:09,614 --> 00:29:07,478 IMPACT DEPENDING ON THE 919 00:29:11,482 --> 00:29:09,681 TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION ON THE 920 00:29:14,385 --> 00:29:11,549 SPHERIC J=rDU8%UáTz PATTERNS THT 921 00:29:14,719 --> 00:29:14,452 DIFFICULT OUR STORMS EVERY 922 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:14,786 WINTER. 923 00:29:18,456 --> 00:29:16,387 SO FOR INSTANCE, WHEN YOU'RE IN 924 00:29:20,291 --> 00:29:18,523 A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE PDO, YOU 925 00:29:22,627 --> 00:29:20,358 GET A PATTERN LIKE THIS. 926 00:29:24,162 --> 00:29:22,694 AND THIS IS, YOU KNOW, ALL OF 927 00:29:25,563 --> 00:29:24,229 HEARD ABOUT THE RIDICULOUSLY 928 00:29:25,930 --> 00:29:25,630 RESILIENT RIDGE OF HIGH 929 00:29:28,065 --> 00:29:25,997 PRESSURE. 930 00:29:29,100 --> 00:29:28,132 THERE IT IS RIGHT THERE. 931 00:29:30,468 --> 00:29:29,167 THAT STUCK AROUND IN THE 932 00:29:32,436 --> 00:29:30,535 NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE GULF 933 00:29:34,739 --> 00:29:32,503 OF ALASKA FOR THE LAST COUPLE 934 00:29:36,908 --> 00:29:34,806 YEARS AND WHAT IT DID IT 935 00:29:39,010 --> 00:29:36,975 DIVERTED THE JET STREAM UP INTO 936 00:29:41,245 --> 00:29:39,077 ALASKA, SWOOPED DOWN INTO THE 937 00:29:44,282 --> 00:29:41,312 UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHEAST, 938 00:29:46,117 --> 00:29:44,349 LEFT ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE WEST 939 00:29:47,985 --> 00:29:46,184 COAST HIGH AND DRY FOR THE LAST 940 00:29:49,954 --> 00:29:48,052 FOUR YEARS, AND GAVE ALL THOSE 941 00:29:52,390 --> 00:29:50,021 PEOPLE IN BOSTON AND CHICAGO 942 00:29:56,694 --> 00:29:52,457 JUST PUNISHING WINTERS. 943 00:29:58,029 --> 00:29:56,761 NOW, WHEN IS YOU LOOK AT THE 944 00:30:00,698 --> 00:29:58,096 HISTORICAL PATTERNS ASSOCIATED 945 00:30:01,098 --> 00:30:00,765 WITH THESE PDOs, THAT'S WHAT YOU 946 00:30:03,267 --> 00:30:01,165 SEE. 947 00:30:05,870 --> 00:30:03,334 NOW, I'M WORKING ON A PAPER ON 948 00:30:08,873 --> 00:30:05,937 THAT RIGHT NOW THE TO SEE, TO 949 00:30:10,842 --> 00:30:08,940 EXPLAIN DYNAMICALLY EXACTLY HOW 950 00:30:13,311 --> 00:30:10,909 THAT HAPPENS, HOW HEAT PATTERNS 951 00:30:14,812 --> 00:30:13,378 OR TEMPERATURE PATTERNS IN THE 952 00:30:17,215 --> 00:30:14,879 TROPICS AFFECT WEATHER PATTERNS 953 00:30:20,518 --> 00:30:17,282 IN THE MID LATITUDES. 954 00:30:23,287 --> 00:30:20,585 PRETTY COOL, HUH? 955 00:30:25,423 --> 00:30:23,354 AND SO THIS HAS YOUR NEGATIVE 956 00:30:27,825 --> 00:30:25,490 PDO PATTERN. 957 00:30:28,159 --> 00:30:27,892 FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE JET 958 00:30:33,164 --> 00:30:28,226 STREAM. 959 00:30:33,998 --> 00:30:33,231 PRETTY NICE, HUH? 960 00:30:36,901 --> 00:30:34,065 ALL RIGHT. 961 00:30:38,336 --> 00:30:36,968 NOW, IF YOU WANT PROOF THAT THE 962 00:30:40,905 --> 00:30:38,403 PDO IS THE REAL DEAL AND JUST 963 00:30:43,541 --> 00:30:40,972 NOT A FIGMENT OF MY IMAGINATION, 964 00:30:45,142 --> 00:30:43,608 ALL RIGHT, LOOK AT THE LARGER 965 00:30:47,879 --> 00:30:45,209 LONGER IMPACT. 966 00:30:50,314 --> 00:30:47,946 AND MY FAVORITE IS LAKE MEAD. 967 00:30:54,285 --> 00:30:50,381 NOW, LAKE MEAD IS THE LARGEST 968 00:30:54,919 --> 00:30:54,352 RESERVOIR MANMADE RESERVOIR IN 969 00:30:56,621 --> 00:30:54,986 THE WEST. 970 00:30:59,123 --> 00:30:56,688 THIS IS WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE. 971 00:30:59,523 --> 00:30:59,190 AND I CALL LAKE MEAD THE PDO 972 00:31:04,962 --> 00:30:59,590 BAROMETER. 973 00:31:05,663 --> 00:31:05,029 IT MEASURES THE PDO. 974 00:31:06,831 --> 00:31:05,730 OF COURSE, ITS LAKE LEVEL IS 975 00:31:08,532 --> 00:31:06,898 CONTROLLED BY THE DO. 976 00:31:09,834 --> 00:31:08,599 SO HERE'S THE LAKE LEVEL GOING 977 00:31:11,302 --> 00:31:09,901 BACK TO 1940. 978 00:31:13,304 --> 00:31:11,369 REMEMBER, THEY STARTED FILLING 979 00:31:13,971 --> 00:31:13,371 IT IN 1935. 980 00:31:16,908 --> 00:31:14,038 ALL RIGHT. 981 00:31:17,975 --> 00:31:16,975 AND THIS IS WHERE THEY'RE 982 00:31:20,544 --> 00:31:18,042 FILLING LAKE POWELL. 983 00:31:20,878 --> 00:31:20,611 SO THEY CUT OFF THE FLOW TO LAKE 984 00:31:24,815 --> 00:31:20,945 MEAD. 985 00:31:26,284 --> 00:31:24,882 BUT ANY HOW, LET'S LOOK 986 00:31:29,420 --> 00:31:26,351 RECENTLY. 987 00:31:32,723 --> 00:31:29,487 SINCE 2000 HERE, THE LAKE LEVEL 988 00:31:33,658 --> 00:31:32,790 IN LAKE MEAD HAS DROPPED 989 00:31:37,628 --> 00:31:33,725 PRECIPITOUSLY CONTINUOUSLY ON 990 00:31:39,397 --> 00:31:37,695 AND OFF FOR THE LAST 15 YEARS. 991 00:31:40,398 --> 00:31:39,464 SO WHAT DID WE SAY ABOUT THESE 992 00:31:41,799 --> 00:31:40,465 DROUGHT PATTERNS? 993 00:31:43,768 --> 00:31:41,866 WE SAID THEY WERE LARGE. 994 00:31:46,904 --> 00:31:43,835 WE SAID THEY WERE LONG-LASTING. 995 00:31:47,305 --> 00:31:46,971 SO IT'S NOT JUST L.A., IT'S NOT 996 00:31:49,106 --> 00:31:47,372 CALIFORNIA. 997 00:31:50,775 --> 00:31:49,173 IT'S ALSO THE ENTIRE WATERSHED 998 00:31:52,543 --> 00:31:50,842 OF THE COLORADO RIVER. 999 00:31:55,146 --> 00:31:52,610 IT'S THE ENTIRE WEST. 1000 00:31:56,814 --> 00:31:55,213 AND SO WHEN L.A. HAS A DROUGHT, 1001 00:31:59,317 --> 00:31:56,881 LAKE MEAD HAS A DROUGHT. 1002 00:31:59,717 --> 00:31:59,384 IT'S ON THE ENTIRE COLORADO 1003 00:32:01,786 --> 00:31:59,784 WATERSHED. 1004 00:32:05,056 --> 00:32:01,853 SO THERE'S YOUR 15-YEAR DROUGHT. 1005 00:32:06,557 --> 00:32:05,123 NOW YOU CAN'T DROP THIS IN FOUR 1006 00:32:09,060 --> 00:32:06,624 YEARS OR FIVE YEARS. 1007 00:32:10,828 --> 00:32:09,127 LAKE MEAD IS TOO BIG. 1008 00:32:11,963 --> 00:32:10,895 THE FILL TIME IS 17 YEARS. 1009 00:32:17,335 --> 00:32:12,030 AND SO IT'S A GREAT BAROMETER 1010 00:32:19,804 --> 00:32:17,402 FOR THE PDO. 1011 00:32:21,539 --> 00:32:19,871 AND RIGHT NOW, IT'S NEVER BEEN 1012 00:32:22,073 --> 00:32:21,606 THIS LOW IN THE HISTORICAL 1013 00:32:24,375 --> 00:32:22,140 RECORD. 1014 00:32:26,043 --> 00:32:24,442 NOW, THAT'S A PROBLEM. 1015 00:32:27,511 --> 00:32:26,110 BECAUSE SEVEN STATES AND FIVE 1016 00:32:30,081 --> 00:32:27,578 INDIAN NATIONS SHARE THE WATER 1017 00:32:30,815 --> 00:32:30,148 FROM THE COLORADO RIVER. 1018 00:32:31,782 --> 00:32:30,882 IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT TO THE 1019 00:32:34,785 --> 00:32:31,849 WELL-BEING OF THE WEST. 1020 00:32:38,823 --> 00:32:34,852 REALLY IMPORTANT. 1021 00:32:39,390 --> 00:32:38,890 BUT A FUNNY THING HAPPENED IN 1022 00:32:40,725 --> 00:32:39,457 2000. 1023 00:32:42,493 --> 00:32:40,792 THE RED CURVE IS THE AVERAGE 1024 00:32:44,795 --> 00:32:42,560 WATER USAGE, HOW MUCH WATER DID 1025 00:32:46,030 --> 00:32:44,862 WE TAKE OUT OF THE COLORADO 1026 00:32:47,732 --> 00:32:46,097 GOING BACK TO THE '20s, AND 1027 00:32:50,401 --> 00:32:47,799 HERE'S THE LAKE LEVEL OR HOW 1028 00:32:52,403 --> 00:32:50,468 MUCH IS AVAILABLE IN LAKE MEAD. 1029 00:32:55,573 --> 00:32:52,470 NOW, IN 2000, BECAUSE EVERYBODY 1030 00:33:01,345 --> 00:32:55,640 TOOK THEIR FULL ALLOCATION OUT 1031 00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:01,412 OF THE COLORADO, THE SUPPLY 1032 00:33:03,914 --> 00:33:03,147 CURVE AND THE OTHER CURVE 1033 00:33:05,616 --> 00:33:03,981 FINALLY CROSSED. 1034 00:33:08,119 --> 00:33:05,683 SO EVERYBODY'S GOING TO REMEMBER 1035 00:33:10,287 --> 00:33:08,186 FROM ECONOMICS 101, WHAT HAPPENS 1036 00:33:10,621 --> 00:33:10,354 WHEN THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 1037 00:33:11,022 --> 00:33:10,688 CURVE. 1038 00:33:14,158 --> 00:33:11,089 ALL RIGHT? 1039 00:33:14,592 --> 00:33:14,225 THAT MEANS YOU'RE IN DEEP DOO 1040 00:33:14,959 --> 00:33:14,659 DOO. 1041 00:33:17,328 --> 00:33:15,026 ALL RIGHT? 1042 00:33:18,029 --> 00:33:17,395 DEPEND IS GREATER THAN THE 1043 00:33:18,329 --> 00:33:18,096 SUPPLY. 1044 00:33:20,798 --> 00:33:18,396 RIGHT? 1045 00:33:21,932 --> 00:33:20,865 AND HERE'S A QUOTE I PICKED OUT 1046 00:33:24,735 --> 00:33:21,999 OF THE NEWSPAPER. 1047 00:33:26,404 --> 00:33:24,802 JUST AS THE DEMAND STARTED TO 1048 00:33:28,606 --> 00:33:26,471 SOAR BECAUSE OF THE DROUGHT, 1049 00:33:30,307 --> 00:33:28,673 THIS 15-YEAR DROUGHT BEGAN AND 1050 00:33:31,375 --> 00:33:30,374 THIS IS THE GOOD NIGHT FROM THE 1051 00:33:34,912 --> 00:33:31,442 METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT THAT 1052 00:33:35,479 --> 00:33:34,979 MANAGED THE COLORADO RIVER 1053 00:33:38,616 --> 00:33:35,546 WATER. 1054 00:33:41,819 --> 00:33:38,683 SO THERE'S ANOTHER BAD SIGN. 1055 00:33:42,286 --> 00:33:41,886 THE WATER FROM THE COLORADO IS 1056 00:33:45,356 --> 00:33:42,353 OVERALLOCATED. 1057 00:33:45,756 --> 00:33:45,423 WE DON'T HAVE ANY SNOWPACK. 1058 00:33:47,825 --> 00:33:45,823 ALL RIGHT? 1059 00:33:49,493 --> 00:33:47,892 AND WE DEFINITELY HAVEN'T HAD 1060 00:33:49,860 --> 00:33:49,560 ANY GOOD RAIN HERE FOR THE LAST 1061 00:33:54,098 --> 00:33:49,927 15 YEARS. 1062 00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:54,165 SO THAT'S A DROUGHT. 1063 00:33:58,035 --> 00:33:55,867 OKAY. 1064 00:33:59,937 --> 00:33:58,102 SO NOW, THE RING AROUND LAKE 1065 00:34:02,039 --> 00:34:00,004 MEAD, THIS IS A MINERAL DEPOSIT, 1066 00:34:06,577 --> 00:34:02,106 SO ANYBODY WANT TO TAKE A GUESS 1067 00:34:13,717 --> 00:34:06,644 WHETHER HE IT WAS THIS HIGH? 1068 00:34:15,686 --> 00:34:13,784 WHAT WERE THE DECADES? 1069 00:34:18,556 --> 00:34:15,753 >> WHEN WE WERE IN THE POSITIVE 1070 00:34:20,658 --> 00:34:18,623 PDO AND THE WEST WAS WET. 1071 00:34:23,294 --> 00:34:20,725 SO THIS IS AFTER THE EL NINO 1072 00:34:25,162 --> 00:34:23,361 WINTER OF 1983 AND THE LA NINA 1073 00:34:29,934 --> 00:34:25,229 WINTER OF 1998. 1074 00:34:30,968 --> 00:34:30,001 LAKE MEAD WAS SO FULL, IT ALMOST 1075 00:34:32,870 --> 00:34:31,035 OVERFLOWED, THEY HAD TO RELEASE 1076 00:34:34,772 --> 00:34:32,937 WATER OUT OF THE LAKE. 1077 00:34:35,072 --> 00:34:34,839 THERE WAS TOO MUCH WATER IN LAKE 1078 00:34:39,110 --> 00:34:35,139 MEAD. 1079 00:34:40,611 --> 00:34:39,177 HOW DID WE GET TO THE BOTTOM? 1080 00:34:43,347 --> 00:34:40,678 AS LONG AS WE STAYED HERE IN 1081 00:34:45,349 --> 00:34:43,414 THIS NEGATIVE PDO AND SO NEXT 1082 00:34:47,284 --> 00:34:45,416 TIME YOU THINK ABOUT THAT RING 1083 00:34:48,552 --> 00:34:47,351 AROUND LAKE MEAD AND BY THE WAY, 1084 00:34:49,787 --> 00:34:48,619 EVERYBODY SHOULD GO SEE LAKE 1085 00:34:50,187 --> 00:34:49,854 MEAD AND HOOVER DAM. 1086 00:34:50,588 --> 00:34:50,254 FANTASTIC. 1087 00:34:52,523 --> 00:34:50,655 YOU KNOW? 1088 00:34:52,923 --> 00:34:52,590 BEFORE YOU DIE, YOU GOT TO THE 1089 00:34:53,324 --> 00:34:52,990 GO. 1090 00:34:54,158 --> 00:34:53,391 ALL RIGHT? 1091 00:34:56,127 --> 00:34:54,225 DEFINITELY TAKE THE KIDS. 1092 00:34:57,995 --> 00:34:56,194 IT'S AN AMAZING THING. 1093 00:35:00,030 --> 00:34:58,062 SO BUT THE NEXT TIME YOU SEE THE 1094 00:35:02,566 --> 00:35:00,097 RING AROUND LAKE MEAD, WHAT ARE 1095 00:35:05,202 --> 00:35:02,633 YOU GOING TO THINK? 1096 00:35:05,503 --> 00:35:05,269 YOU'RE GOING TO THINK PDO. 1097 00:35:06,270 --> 00:35:05,570 YEAH? 1098 00:35:12,643 --> 00:35:06,337 THAT LAKE WAS BUILT TO MEASURE 1099 00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:12,710 THE PDO. 1100 00:35:16,247 --> 00:35:15,947 SO RIGHT NOW, IT'S AT 35% 1101 00:35:18,182 --> 00:35:16,314 CAPACITY. 1102 00:35:18,482 --> 00:35:18,249 THAT'S REALLY BAD. 1103 00:35:20,317 --> 00:35:18,549 OKAY. 1104 00:35:20,851 --> 00:35:20,384 SO WE GOT A LITTLE RECIPE FOR 1105 00:35:22,620 --> 00:35:20,918 DISASTER HERE. 1106 00:35:24,088 --> 00:35:22,687 THIS DROUGHT IS ON AND OFF FOR 1107 00:35:27,091 --> 00:35:24,155 THE LAST 15 YEARS. 1108 00:35:28,425 --> 00:35:27,158 RESERVOIRS ARE LOW TO EMPTY. 1109 00:35:30,127 --> 00:35:28,492 THE SNOWPACK IS NEGLIGIBLE AND 1110 00:35:31,996 --> 00:35:30,194 THE GROUNDWATER SUPPLIES HERE IN 1111 00:35:33,397 --> 00:35:32,063 THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY AND 1112 00:35:35,366 --> 00:35:33,464 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE AT ALL 1113 00:35:37,668 --> 00:35:35,433 TIME LOWS IF THEY'RE NOT 1114 00:35:38,269 --> 00:35:37,735 POLLUTED WHICH IS ABOUT HALF OF 1115 00:35:40,938 --> 00:35:38,336 THEM. 1116 00:35:42,173 --> 00:35:41,005 AND THE GREAT AQUIFERS THAT WERE 1117 00:35:44,708 --> 00:35:42,240 LAID DOWN DURING THE RETREAT OF 1118 00:35:46,710 --> 00:35:44,775 THE ICE AGE, THE GREAT AQUIFERS 1119 00:35:48,579 --> 00:35:46,777 IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND 1120 00:35:49,780 --> 00:35:48,646 FOR INSTANCE THE COACHELLA 1121 00:35:52,049 --> 00:35:49,847 VALLEY, ALL THOSE GOLF COURSE 1122 00:35:52,416 --> 00:35:52,116 OFS THAT WATER IS 10,000 YEARS ■ 1123 00:35:53,951 --> 00:35:52,483 OLD. 1124 00:35:55,186 --> 00:35:54,018 NOBODY REALLY KNOWS WHAT THE 1125 00:35:56,587 --> 00:35:55,253 RESERVES ARE BUT WE'VE BEEN 1126 00:35:58,722 --> 00:35:56,654 PUMPING IT FOR A CENTURY. 1127 00:36:00,057 --> 00:35:58,789 SOONER OR LATER, YOU'RE GOING TO 1128 00:36:01,926 --> 00:36:00,124 HEAR THAT SOUND LIKE YOU KNOW 1129 00:36:03,327 --> 00:36:01,993 WHEN YOU GET A MILKSHAKE AT IN 1130 00:36:05,963 --> 00:36:03,394 AND OUT BURGER AND YOU GET TO 1131 00:36:06,764 --> 00:36:06,030 THE BOTTOM AND ALL OF A SUDDEN 1132 00:36:08,365 --> 00:36:06,831 YOU HEAR 1133 00:36:10,401 --> 00:36:08,432 [ SLURPING ] 1134 00:36:11,569 --> 00:36:10,468 THEN WE'RE REALLY IN TROUBLE. 1135 00:36:15,206 --> 00:36:11,636 OF COURSE, THE COLORADO 1136 00:36:16,340 --> 00:36:15,273 WATERSHED IS IN A LARGE VERY 1137 00:36:19,610 --> 00:36:16,407 LONG-TERM DROUGHT. 1138 00:36:20,377 --> 00:36:19,677 REMEMBER, 30% OF THE WATER IN 1139 00:36:21,946 --> 00:36:20,444 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COMES FROM 1140 00:36:24,515 --> 00:36:22,013 THE COLORADO RIVER. 1141 00:36:27,818 --> 00:36:24,582 WE PUSH IT IN AN AQUEDUCT FROM 1142 00:36:29,019 --> 00:36:27,885 LAKE HAVASU INTO NEAR HEMET. 1143 00:36:31,322 --> 00:36:29,086 DIAMOND VALLEY LAKE. 1144 00:36:33,591 --> 00:36:31,389 SO 70% OF THE WATER IN SOUTHERN 1145 00:36:35,292 --> 00:36:33,658 CALIFORNIA IS IMPORTED. 1146 00:36:36,527 --> 00:36:35,359 USUALLY 40 FROM NORTHERN AND 30 1147 00:36:38,862 --> 00:36:36,594 FROM THE COLORADO. 1148 00:36:40,464 --> 00:36:38,929 AND THEY CUT OFF THE 40 AND 1149 00:36:43,167 --> 00:36:40,531 THEY'RE GOING TO CUT OFF PART OF 1150 00:36:43,701 --> 00:36:43,234 OUR 30. 1151 00:36:45,035 --> 00:36:43,768 ALL RIGHT? 1152 00:36:49,740 --> 00:36:45,102 SO CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN 1153 00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:49,807 CALIFORNIA WAS BUILT ON IMPORTED 1154 00:36:51,742 --> 00:36:50,107 WATER. 1155 00:36:54,411 --> 00:36:51,809 ALL RIGHT. 1156 00:36:55,446 --> 00:36:54,478 SO THIS IS DEFINITELY NO DOUBT 1157 00:36:58,782 --> 00:36:55,513 WHATSOEVER, THIS IS THE WORST 1158 00:36:59,149 --> 00:36:58,849 DROUGHT WE'VE HAD IN THE PAST 1159 00:37:01,285 --> 00:36:59,216 CENTURY. 1160 00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:01,352 AND THIS IS ANOTHER TALK. 1161 00:37:04,888 --> 00:37:03,387 HALF OF THIS DROUGHT WAS CAUSED 1162 00:37:08,626 --> 00:37:04,955 BY NOT THE PDO, WAS CAUSED BY 1163 00:37:10,828 --> 00:37:08,693 US. 1164 00:37:14,131 --> 00:37:10,895 IN 1950, THERE WERE ONLY 10 1165 00:37:14,531 --> 00:37:14,198 MILLION PEOPLE IN CALIFORNIA. 1166 00:37:16,500 --> 00:37:14,598 ALL RIGHT? 1167 00:37:18,469 --> 00:37:16,567 NOW THERE'S 40 MILLION. 1168 00:37:20,471 --> 00:37:18,536 AND SO THAT'S A LOT MORE PEOPLE 1169 00:37:22,873 --> 00:37:20,538 USING A LOT MORE WATER. 1170 00:37:24,508 --> 00:37:22,940 AND AGRICULTURE IS ESSENTIALLY 1171 00:37:27,778 --> 00:37:24,575 DOUBLED AND INDUSTRIES THAT 1172 00:37:28,946 --> 00:37:27,845 DIDN'T EXIST IN THE 1950s ARE 1173 00:37:30,848 --> 00:37:29,013 FLOURISHING TODAY. 1174 00:37:32,349 --> 00:37:30,915 AND SO YOU KNOW, CALIFORNIA GOT 1175 00:37:33,017 --> 00:37:32,416 TO BE THE SEVENTH LARGE ECONOMY 1176 00:37:36,086 --> 00:37:33,084 IN THE WORLD. 1177 00:37:38,122 --> 00:37:36,153 IT'S A BIGGER ECONOMY THAN 1178 00:37:38,489 --> 00:37:38,189 RUSSIA OR FRANCE. 1179 00:37:43,093 --> 00:37:38,556 ALL RIGHT? 1180 00:37:43,494 --> 00:37:43,160 AND THE LIMITING FACTOR IS WHAT? 1181 00:37:43,827 --> 00:37:43,561 WATER. 1182 00:37:45,396 --> 00:37:43,894 RIGHT? 1183 00:37:48,265 --> 00:37:45,463 SO DEFINITELY I WANT YOU TO CUT 1184 00:37:49,967 --> 00:37:48,332 BACK ON THAT 25% LIKE MY BUDDY 1185 00:37:50,434 --> 00:37:50,034 JERRY BROWN SAID. 1186 00:37:51,869 --> 00:37:50,501 ALL RIGHT? 1187 00:37:52,169 --> 00:37:51,936 SO NOW WE'RE COMING TO THE PUNCH 1188 00:37:55,205 --> 00:37:52,236 LINE. 1189 00:37:56,073 --> 00:37:55,272 YOU GOT ALL THE FACTS IN FRONT 1190 00:37:58,742 --> 00:37:56,140 OF YOU. 1191 00:37:59,109 --> 00:37:58,809 WHEN IS THE DROUGHT GOING TO 1192 00:37:59,543 --> 00:37:59,176 END? 1193 00:38:01,245 --> 00:37:59,610 ANYBODY KNOW? 1194 00:38:01,945 --> 00:38:01,312 COME ON, YOU GOT TO KNOW. 1195 00:38:04,481 --> 00:38:02,012 OTHERWISE, I'M GOING TO FLUNK 1196 00:38:07,284 --> 00:38:04,548 YOU ALL. 1197 00:38:07,851 --> 00:38:07,351 OR SLIT MY WRISTS, ONE OR THE 1198 00:38:10,754 --> 00:38:07,918 OTHER. 1199 00:38:12,690 --> 00:38:10,821 ONE, WHO SAID IT? 1200 00:38:13,557 --> 00:38:12,757 >> RIGHT. 1201 00:38:18,495 --> 00:38:13,624 SUSAN. 1202 00:38:19,963 --> 00:38:18,562 SUSAN'S MY BEST STUDENT. 1203 00:38:21,765 --> 00:38:20,030 SO SOME PEOPLE THINK IT'S WHEN 1204 00:38:23,567 --> 00:38:21,832 THE EL NINO SHOWS UP BUT WHEN 1205 00:38:25,903 --> 00:38:23,634 YOU'RE OUT OF THIS DROUGHT IS 1206 00:38:27,905 --> 00:38:25,970 WHEN THE PDO FLIPS AND YOU GET A 1207 00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:27,972 DECADE OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL 1208 00:38:31,041 --> 00:38:29,707 BECAUSE IT TOOK YOU A LONG TIME 1209 00:38:32,042 --> 00:38:31,108 TO GET INTO THIS DROUGHT AND 1210 00:38:33,544 --> 00:38:32,109 THERE'S NO QUICK FIX. 1211 00:38:34,912 --> 00:38:33,611 IT'S GOING TO TAKE YOU A LONG 1212 00:38:35,312 --> 00:38:34,979 TIME TO GET OUT. 1213 00:38:37,448 --> 00:38:35,379 ALL RIGHT? 1214 00:38:42,052 --> 00:38:37,515 SO YOU DEFINITELY BETTER BE 1215 00:38:43,153 --> 00:38:42,119 THINKING POSITIVE PDO. 1216 00:38:47,991 --> 00:38:43,220 SO WHAT HAPPENED HERE? 1217 00:38:50,694 --> 00:38:48,058 THIS IS THE PDO AGAIN, RIGHT? 1218 00:38:53,430 --> 00:38:50,761 NEST 2000, WE WENT FROM THE WET 1219 00:38:53,697 --> 00:38:53,497 PDO, THE WARM PDO TO THE COOL 1220 00:38:58,268 --> 00:38:53,764 PDO. 1221 00:39:00,704 --> 00:38:58,335 AND IT ESSENTIALLY STAYED THERE 1222 00:39:01,138 --> 00:39:00,771 MOSTLY FOR LAST 15 YEARS ON AND 1223 00:39:01,538 --> 00:39:01,205 OFF. 1224 00:39:05,476 --> 00:39:01,605 ALL RIGHT? 1225 00:39:07,411 --> 00:39:05,543 SO WHAT I'M THINKING NOW, WHAT 1226 00:39:09,580 --> 00:39:07,478 WOULD BE REALLY SWEET IS WITH 1227 00:39:11,582 --> 00:39:09,647 THIS BIG EL NENIO BUILDING IN 1228 00:39:14,251 --> 00:39:11,649 THE PACIFIC, WOULDN'T IT BE NICE 1229 00:39:17,287 --> 00:39:14,318 IF THAT BIG EL NINO FLIPPED THE 1230 00:39:17,654 --> 00:39:17,354 PDO FROM A NEGATIVE TO A 1231 00:39:18,322 --> 00:39:17,721 POSITIVE? 1232 00:39:20,224 --> 00:39:18,389 ALL RIGHT. 1233 00:39:20,524 --> 00:39:20,291 THAT'S WHAT WE'RE ALL HOPING 1234 00:39:23,994 --> 00:39:20,591 FOR. 1235 00:39:25,562 --> 00:39:24,061 BECAUSE UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, 1236 00:39:26,930 --> 00:39:25,629 YOU'RE IN THE DROUGHT. 1237 00:39:31,268 --> 00:39:26,997 FOREVER. 1238 00:39:33,637 --> 00:39:31,335 UNTIL THAT FLIPS. 1239 00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:33,704 ALL RIGHT? 1240 00:39:38,942 --> 00:39:37,107 SO NOW HERE'S A HOPEFUL SIGN. 1241 00:39:42,246 --> 00:39:39,009 FOR THE LAST 1 MONTHS LOOKING AT 1242 00:39:45,048 --> 00:39:42,313 THE INDEX HERE, THE PDO HAS 1243 00:39:45,616 --> 00:39:45,115 ACTUALLY SHIFTED TO A POSITIVE 1244 00:39:46,016 --> 00:39:45,683 PHASE. 1245 00:39:49,153 --> 00:39:46,083 ALL RIGHT? 1246 00:39:51,922 --> 00:39:49,220 NOW IT COULD FLIP BACK. 1247 00:39:53,857 --> 00:39:51,989 BUT THIS IS A VERY WARM HIGH PDO 1248 00:39:55,025 --> 00:39:53,924 SIGNAL RIGHT HERE FOR THE LAST 1249 00:39:56,994 --> 00:39:55,092 18 MONTHS. 1250 00:39:59,396 --> 00:39:57,061 SO I'M PRETTY HOPEFUL. 1251 00:40:00,130 --> 00:39:59,463 NOT GUARANTEED BUT WOULDN'T THAT 1252 00:40:03,033 --> 00:40:00,197 BE SWEET? 1253 00:40:06,637 --> 00:40:03,100 IF WE GOT INTO A LONG-LASTING 1254 00:40:07,504 --> 00:40:06,704 MOSTLY POSITIVE PDO. 1255 00:40:09,006 --> 00:40:07,571 OF COURSE, THE OTHER 1256 00:40:13,544 --> 00:40:09,073 ALTERNATIVE, AND THIS HAS BEEN 1257 00:40:14,845 --> 00:40:13,611 IN THE NEWS LATELY, IS THAT YOU 1258 00:40:17,047 --> 00:40:14,912 KNOW, EL NINO HAS ALWAYS BEEN 1259 00:40:18,882 --> 00:40:17,114 BILLS AS THE GREAT DROUGHT 1260 00:40:21,185 --> 00:40:18,949 BUSTER, THE SUPER EL NINO. 1261 00:40:22,219 --> 00:40:21,252 SO I CALL IT THE GREAT WET HOPE, 1262 00:40:23,387 --> 00:40:22,286 EL NINO, ALL RIGHT? 1263 00:40:26,990 --> 00:40:23,454 SO THE WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN 1264 00:40:27,357 --> 00:40:27,057 HERE WITH THE EL NINO OF 1265 00:40:28,425 --> 00:40:27,424 2015-'16? 1266 00:40:30,694 --> 00:40:28,492 BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT, I'M 1267 00:40:31,061 --> 00:40:30,761 GOING TO HIT YOU WITH THIS ONE 1268 00:40:32,729 --> 00:40:31,128 AGAIN. 1269 00:40:34,231 --> 00:40:32,796 WOULDN'T IT BE SWEET IF WE HAD 1270 00:40:36,366 --> 00:40:34,298 THE BIG SWITCH FROM THE NEGATIVE 1271 00:40:38,502 --> 00:40:36,433 TO THE POSITIVE PDO ALONG WITH 1272 00:40:40,471 --> 00:40:38,569 THAT BIG EL NINO? 1273 00:40:44,141 --> 00:40:40,538 WHAT IS EL NINO? 1274 00:40:44,408 --> 00:40:44,208 THIS IS AS SIX AS I COULD MAKE 1275 00:40:46,043 --> 00:40:44,475 IT. 1276 00:40:46,343 --> 00:40:46,110 THIS IS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC 1277 00:40:49,246 --> 00:40:46,410 HERE. 1278 00:40:51,014 --> 00:40:49,313 THE AMERICAS, THIS IS ASIA. 1279 00:40:52,716 --> 00:40:51,081 WHEN YOU HAVE STRONG TRADE 1280 00:40:55,018 --> 00:40:52,783 WINDS, BLOWING FROM THE AMERICAS 1281 00:40:56,954 --> 00:40:55,085 TO ASIA, WARM WATER PILES UP 1282 00:40:59,990 --> 00:40:57,021 HERE OFF ASIA. 1283 00:41:01,058 --> 00:41:00,057 AND IT COOLS OFF ALONG THE COAST 1284 00:41:03,393 --> 00:41:01,125 OF THE AMERICAS. 1285 00:41:05,896 --> 00:41:03,460 SO YOU GET VERY WARM WATER PILED 1286 00:41:07,331 --> 00:41:05,963 UP HERE, VERY COOL WATER THERE. 1287 00:41:09,132 --> 00:41:07,398 THE HIGHEST ACTUALLY, IT'S 1288 00:41:11,034 --> 00:41:09,199 ALMOST A HALF A METER HIGHER IN 1289 00:41:11,435 --> 00:41:11,101 THE WEST DURING NORMAL 1290 00:41:14,571 --> 00:41:11,502 CONDITIONS. 1291 00:41:16,073 --> 00:41:14,638 BUT WHEN YOU GET AN EL NOIPIO, 1292 00:41:17,107 --> 00:41:16,140 THESE TRADE WINDS HERE THEY TEND 1293 00:41:20,677 --> 00:41:17,174 TO WEAKEN. 1294 00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:20,744 AND ALL THAT WARM WATER OFF ASIA 1295 00:41:23,313 --> 00:41:22,947 TENDS TO SHIFT BACK ACROSS THE 1296 00:41:27,451 --> 00:41:23,380 AMERICAS. 1297 00:41:28,485 --> 00:41:27,518 AND THAT'S A BIG DISTANCE. 1298 00:41:29,653 --> 00:41:28,552 THAT'S A THIRD OF THE 1299 00:41:31,321 --> 00:41:29,720 CIRCUMFERENCE OF THE EARTH ALL 1300 00:41:32,923 --> 00:41:31,388 THAT WATER SLOSHING BACK AND IT 1301 00:41:36,493 --> 00:41:32,990 MOVES TOWARDS THE AMERICAS. 1302 00:41:39,763 --> 00:41:36,560 AND SO THAT'S EL NINO 101. 1303 00:41:42,366 --> 00:41:39,830 NOW, HERE AT JPL, WE'VE BEEN 1304 00:41:44,334 --> 00:41:42,433 FLYING A SERIES OF SATELLITES 1305 00:41:46,069 --> 00:41:44,401 WHICH I CALL STALKING EL NAINIO 1306 00:41:46,503 --> 00:41:46,136 FROM SPACE. 1307 00:41:49,139 --> 00:41:46,570 ALL RIGHT? 1308 00:41:52,276 --> 00:41:49,206 SINCE 1992. 1309 00:41:54,645 --> 00:41:52,343 ONE THE FIRST UP WITH WAS 1310 00:41:56,947 --> 00:41:54,712 POSEIDON JOINT VENTURE WITH THE 1311 00:41:59,116 --> 00:41:57,014 FRENCH SPACE AGENCY, JASON 1, 1312 00:42:01,285 --> 00:41:59,183 JASON 2, AND JASON 3 WE HOPE TO 1313 00:42:05,055 --> 00:42:01,352 LAUNCH LATER THIS YEAR ON ONE OF 1314 00:42:06,790 --> 00:42:05,122 ELON MUSK'S ROCKETS. 1315 00:42:08,358 --> 00:42:06,857 MY FERNGS CROSSED. 1316 00:42:09,860 --> 00:42:08,425 AND WHAT IT MEASURES IS THE 1317 00:42:12,029 --> 00:42:09,927 HEIGHT OF THE SEA SURFACE. 1318 00:42:15,165 --> 00:42:12,096 IT HAS A RADAR THAT BOUNCES 1319 00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:15,232 RADAR SIGNALS OFF THE SURFACE, 1320 00:42:18,268 --> 00:42:16,867 MEASURES THE DISTANCE BY 1321 00:42:19,536 --> 00:42:18,335 MEASURING THE TIME AND WE DO IT 1322 00:42:22,072 --> 00:42:19,603 SO GOOD HERE. 1323 00:42:23,106 --> 00:42:22,139 WE'RE SO GOOD AT JPL, WE 1324 00:42:26,410 --> 00:42:23,173 ACTUALLY IT CAN MEASURE THAT 1325 00:42:28,545 --> 00:42:26,477 DISTANCE FROM 1300 KILOMETERS IN 1326 00:42:29,112 --> 00:42:28,612 SPACE DOWN TO THE SUB CENTIMETER 1327 00:42:30,948 --> 00:42:29,179 LEVEL. 1328 00:42:33,717 --> 00:42:31,015 NOW, IS THAT COOL OR WHAT? 1329 00:42:34,151 --> 00:42:33,784 YOU KNOW, ARE YOU GETTING YOUR 1330 00:42:36,587 --> 00:42:34,218 MOPE'S WORTH? 1331 00:42:41,024 --> 00:42:36,654 SO STALKING EL NINO FROM SPACE. 1332 00:42:43,927 --> 00:42:41,091 AND WHAT I DO IS I PRODUCE MAPS 1333 00:42:44,795 --> 00:42:43,994 OF THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE SURFACE 1334 00:42:47,030 --> 00:42:44,862 OF THE SEA SURFACE. 1335 00:42:50,534 --> 00:42:47,097 SO WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO BE 1336 00:42:53,403 --> 00:42:50,601 LOOKING AT ARE MAPS LIKE THIS. 1337 00:42:55,205 --> 00:42:53,470 AND WHAT THEY REALLY ARE IS MAPS 1338 00:42:55,572 --> 00:42:55,272 OF THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE SEA 1339 00:42:56,740 --> 00:42:55,639 SURFACE. 1340 00:42:59,843 --> 00:42:56,807 SOME PLACES SIT HIGHER. 1341 00:43:02,879 --> 00:42:59,910 SOME PLACES SIT LOWER. 1342 00:43:05,649 --> 00:43:02,946 SO WHEN THERE'S MORE HEAT IN THE 1343 00:43:07,851 --> 00:43:05,716 UPPER LAYER, THE WATER EXPANDS 1344 00:43:08,185 --> 00:43:07,918 AND SO THE OCEAN ACTUALLY SITS 1345 00:43:10,253 --> 00:43:08,252 HIGHER. 1346 00:43:10,587 --> 00:43:10,320 WHEN IT COOLS OFF, IT SITS 1347 00:43:11,421 --> 00:43:10,654 LOWER. 1348 00:43:13,223 --> 00:43:11,488 IS THAT COOL? 1349 00:43:13,523 --> 00:43:13,290 THAT'S VERY COOL. 1350 00:43:14,625 --> 00:43:13,590 YEAH? 1351 00:43:17,394 --> 00:43:14,692 SO IT'S REALLY MEASURING HOW 1352 00:43:17,794 --> 00:43:17,461 MUCH HEAT IS STORED IN THE UPPER 1353 00:43:22,366 --> 00:43:17,861 OCEAN. 1354 00:43:22,766 --> 00:43:22,433 THE HEIGHT OF THE SEA SURFACE. 1355 00:43:25,402 --> 00:43:22,833 ALL RIGHT? 1356 00:43:26,870 --> 00:43:25,469 SO BEGINNING -- THIS WAS 1357 00:43:29,139 --> 00:43:26,937 REMEMBER WE'VE BEEN DOING THIS 1358 00:43:32,242 --> 00:43:29,206 FOR 23 YEARS. 1359 00:43:33,043 --> 00:43:32,309 SO PHI MIRS BIG EL NINO WAS 187. 1360 00:43:36,046 --> 00:43:33,110 THAT WAS GREAT. 1361 00:43:37,481 --> 00:43:36,113 WE SAW IN JANUARY THE EL NINO 1362 00:43:38,482 --> 00:43:37,548 STARTED TO BUILD A SERIES OF 1363 00:43:40,550 --> 00:43:38,549 WAVES FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC 1364 00:43:42,686 --> 00:43:40,617 MOVING TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 1365 00:43:43,854 --> 00:43:42,753 THE SAME THING IN JANUARY OF 1366 00:43:46,056 --> 00:43:43,921 THIS YEAR. 1367 00:43:49,159 --> 00:43:46,123 MARCH, APRIL, MAY, JULY, NOW, 1368 00:43:50,961 --> 00:43:49,226 THE INTERESTING THING IS, IN 1369 00:43:57,834 --> 00:43:51,028 JULY, WHICH ONE DO YOU THINK WAS 1370 00:43:59,403 --> 00:43:57,901 BIGGER, THE '97 OR THE 2015? 1371 00:44:02,539 --> 00:43:59,470 THIS ONE OR THIS ONE? 1372 00:44:05,075 --> 00:44:02,606 COME ON. 1373 00:44:06,543 --> 00:44:05,142 THE 2015 IS THE CHAMP. 1374 00:44:06,943 --> 00:44:06,610 IT'S DEFINITELY BIGGER. 1375 00:44:09,446 --> 00:44:07,010 ALL RIGHT. 1376 00:44:12,616 --> 00:44:09,513 SO THIS IS A BIGGER EVENT SO FAR 1377 00:44:15,752 --> 00:44:12,683 THAN WHAT WE SAW IN '97. 1378 00:44:16,153 --> 00:44:15,819 AND '97 WAS PRETTY EXCITING. 1379 00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:16,220 ALL RIGHT? 1380 00:44:24,728 --> 00:44:16,587 ALL RIGHT. 1381 00:44:25,028 --> 00:44:24,795 LET'S SEE IF I CAN DO THIS NOW. 1382 00:44:28,765 --> 00:44:25,095 OKAY. 1383 00:44:29,066 --> 00:44:28,832 THIS IS COOL. 1384 00:44:32,002 --> 00:44:29,133 OKAY. 1385 00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:32,069 THIS IS AS ANIMATION SIDE BY 1386 00:44:38,675 --> 00:44:36,707 SIDE OF THE '97 EVENT AND THE 1387 00:44:39,576 --> 00:44:38,742 2015 EVENT. 1388 00:44:41,244 --> 00:44:39,643 ALL RIGHT? 1389 00:44:42,045 --> 00:44:41,311 AND, OF COURSE, IT STOPS RIGHT 1390 00:44:43,947 --> 00:44:42,112 NOW. 1391 00:44:45,816 --> 00:44:44,014 BUT YOU CAN SEE FROM AUGUST 1392 00:44:47,117 --> 00:44:45,883 THROUGH NOVEMBER, THAT '97 EVENT 1393 00:44:49,286 --> 00:44:47,184 REALLY PUMPED UP. 1394 00:44:51,488 --> 00:44:49,353 ABOUT BECAUSE THE TRADE WINDS 1395 00:44:53,857 --> 00:44:51,555 REALLY RELAXED AND SO MORE AND 1396 00:44:57,360 --> 00:44:53,924 MORE HEAT SHIFTED FROM THE 1397 00:44:59,763 --> 00:44:57,427 WESTERN INTO THE EASTERN 1398 00:45:00,530 --> 00:44:59,830 PACIFIC. 1399 00:45:07,704 --> 00:45:00,597 SEE IF I CAN DO THIS I LOVE THIS 1400 00:45:08,004 --> 00:45:07,771 ANIMATION. 1401 00:45:09,873 --> 00:45:08,071 OKAY. 1402 00:45:10,173 --> 00:45:09,940 THAT WAS ENOUGH FOR NOW. 1403 00:45:12,375 --> 00:45:10,240 OKAY? 1404 00:45:14,745 --> 00:45:12,442 JUST BECAUSE WE'RE RUNNING LATE. 1405 00:45:16,246 --> 00:45:14,812 SO THE REAL QUESTION AT THIS 1406 00:45:18,882 --> 00:45:16,313 POINT IS YOU CAN SEE BY THE 1407 00:45:21,451 --> 00:45:18,949 FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST OR THIS 1408 00:45:23,386 --> 00:45:21,518 WEEK, IS THAT THIS IS A STRONGER 1409 00:45:24,855 --> 00:45:23,453 SIGNAL THAN THIS WAS AT THE SAME 1410 00:45:25,255 --> 00:45:24,922 TIME IN AUGUST. 1411 00:45:26,757 --> 00:45:25,322 ALL RIGHT? 1412 00:45:29,993 --> 00:45:26,824 BUT THE REAL QUESTION IS, DOES 1413 00:45:31,928 --> 00:45:30,060 THIS EL NINO HAVE THE STAYING 1414 00:45:32,929 --> 00:45:31,995 POWER? 1415 00:45:35,098 --> 00:45:32,996 WILL THE TRADE WINDS COLLAPSE TO 1416 00:45:36,933 --> 00:45:35,165 GIVE US AN EVENT THE SIZE OF 1417 00:45:39,336 --> 00:45:37,000 WHAT WE SAW IN 1997. 1418 00:45:39,836 --> 00:45:39,403 SO THAT'S THE HIGH DRAMA HERE, 1419 00:45:41,538 --> 00:45:39,903 ALL RIGHT? 1420 00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:41,605 NOW, ALL OF YOU CAN PARTICIPATE 1421 00:45:47,077 --> 00:45:42,306 IN THIS. 1422 00:45:49,813 --> 00:45:47,144 SO THE QUESTION IS, NINO 2015, 1423 00:45:50,213 --> 00:45:49,880 IS IT GOING TO BE A STUD OR A 1424 00:45:52,149 --> 00:45:50,280 DUD? 1425 00:45:53,350 --> 00:45:52,216 WELL WILL THE TRADE WINDS RELAX 1426 00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:53,417 FROM AUGUST TO NOVEMBER? 1427 00:45:57,521 --> 00:45:57,187 THAT'S THE HIGH DRAMA. 1428 00:46:00,190 --> 00:45:57,588 ALL RIGHT? 1429 00:46:01,792 --> 00:46:00,257 OR THE OTHER WAY TO LOOK AT IT 1430 00:46:03,593 --> 00:46:01,859 IS EL ANYONE DWROE IS IT GOING 1431 00:46:05,529 --> 00:46:03,660 TO BE A CHAMP OR' CHUMP? 1432 00:46:10,133 --> 00:46:05,596 WELL, YOU CAN ACTUALLY GO TO THE 1433 00:46:10,667 --> 00:46:10,200 WEB SITE, SEA 1434 00:46:13,270 --> 00:46:10,734 LEVEL.JPL.NASA.GOV. 1435 00:46:14,938 --> 00:46:13,337 AND EVERY 15 DAYS, UPDATA 1436 00:46:16,807 --> 00:46:15,005 WEBSITE WITH THE NEW IMAGE WITH 1437 00:46:19,442 --> 00:46:16,874 THE NEW ANIMATION, ALL RIGHT? 1438 00:46:23,346 --> 00:46:19,509 AND SINCE ALL OF YOU HAVE SUCH A 1439 00:46:24,514 --> 00:46:23,413 BIG STAKE IN THIS DROUGHT, ALL 1440 00:46:26,283 --> 00:46:24,581 RIGHT, YOU KNOW, IT'S REAL 1441 00:46:27,751 --> 00:46:26,350 SIMPLE TO GO TO. 1442 00:46:29,619 --> 00:46:27,818 AND YOU CAN GO BACK AND PLAY 1443 00:46:33,256 --> 00:46:29,686 WITH THIS ANIMATION AND LOOK AT 1444 00:46:34,758 --> 00:46:33,323 ALL THE IMAGES FROM THE PAST. 1445 00:46:37,027 --> 00:46:34,825 NOW, SUPPOSE IT DOES DELIVER. 1446 00:46:39,396 --> 00:46:37,094 WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE? 1447 00:46:41,698 --> 00:46:39,463 THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WHICH 1448 00:46:43,967 --> 00:46:41,765 IS NORMALLY BRINGS RAIN INTO THE 1449 00:46:45,468 --> 00:46:44,034 ARENA FOREST IN GUATEMALA AND 1450 00:46:49,339 --> 00:46:45,535 CENTRAL MEXICO SHIFTS NORTH. 1451 00:46:50,674 --> 00:46:49,406 SO WHAT WE GET IS A VERY WET 1452 00:46:51,675 --> 00:46:50,741 WINTER ACROSS ACCOUNT SOUTHERN 1453 00:46:53,977 --> 00:46:51,742 TIER OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH 1454 00:46:55,679 --> 00:46:54,044 IS NORMALLY DRY. 1455 00:46:56,079 --> 00:46:55,746 THE SOUTHEAST, TEXAS, SOUTHERN 1456 00:46:57,981 --> 00:46:56,146 CALIFORNIA. 1457 00:46:59,983 --> 00:46:58,048 THOSE ARE ALL DRY PLACES. 1458 00:47:03,820 --> 00:47:00,050 AND THE POLAR JET STREAM WHICH 1459 00:47:04,888 --> 00:47:03,887 WAS SO PUNISHING LAST WINTER 1460 00:47:06,790 --> 00:47:04,955 SHIFTS TO THE NORTH. 1461 00:47:07,691 --> 00:47:06,857 AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE 1462 00:47:09,926 --> 00:47:07,758 UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN 1463 00:47:13,797 --> 00:47:09,993 CANADA GET A VERYMIDE WENTER. 1464 00:47:16,633 --> 00:47:13,864 AND SO WHAT YOU SEE IS ON THE 1465 00:47:20,203 --> 00:47:16,700 NEWS IN JANUARY, IS MUDSLIDES IN 1466 00:47:20,770 --> 00:47:20,270 CALIFORNIA AND GOLFING IN 1467 00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:20,837 MINNESOTA. 1468 00:47:25,709 --> 00:47:24,107 YOU REMEMBER THAT FROM '97. 1469 00:47:27,510 --> 00:47:25,776 IT'S A BIG SWITCH. 1470 00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:27,577 AND IT KIND OF LOOKS LIKE THIS. 1471 00:47:31,114 --> 00:47:29,947 THIS IS THE PATTERN WE SAW LAST 1472 00:47:33,583 --> 00:47:31,181 WINTER, THE PURPLE CURVE. 1473 00:47:34,985 --> 00:47:33,650 AND THIS WOULD BE THE PATTERN WE 1474 00:47:39,322 --> 00:47:35,052 SEE THIS COMING WENTER. 1475 00:47:42,025 --> 00:47:39,389 DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY. 1476 00:47:46,630 --> 00:47:42,092 BUT THE OTHER THING TO REMEMBER 1477 00:47:50,834 --> 00:47:46,697 ABOUT EL NINO, IT'S GLOBAL. 1478 00:47:52,702 --> 00:47:50,901 THAT EL NINO SIGNAL IS SO LARGE 1479 00:47:55,138 --> 00:47:52,769 THAT THERE ISN'T ONE CONTINENT 1480 00:47:55,572 --> 00:47:55,205 ON THE PLANET THAT DOESN'T FEEL 1481 00:47:56,740 --> 00:47:55,639 EL NINO. 1482 00:47:58,475 --> 00:47:56,807 IT'S WET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1483 00:48:00,110 --> 00:47:58,542 TIER OF THE U.S., MILDER WINTER 1484 00:48:04,514 --> 00:48:00,177 ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. 1485 00:48:06,783 --> 00:48:04,581 GETS VERY WET IN PLACES LIKE 1486 00:48:07,918 --> 00:48:06,850 ECUADOR AND CHILE WHICH ARE 1487 00:48:09,653 --> 00:48:07,985 NOFRL MALI DRY. 1488 00:48:11,454 --> 00:48:09,720 THE BIGGEST IMPACT IS ALL THAT 1489 00:48:16,326 --> 00:48:11,521 WARM WATER LEAVING THE WESTERN 1490 00:48:18,061 --> 00:48:16,393 PACIFIC THEY GET EXTREME DROUGHT 1491 00:48:18,828 --> 00:48:18,128 INDONESIA, THE PHILIPPINES, 1492 00:48:21,298 --> 00:48:18,895 NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, SOUTHEAST 1493 00:48:22,432 --> 00:48:21,365 ASIA AND IT'S A WARMER WINTER. 1494 00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:22,499 NOW THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT 1495 00:48:25,568 --> 00:48:24,067 BECAUSE TWO-THIRDS OF THE 1496 00:48:27,938 --> 00:48:25,635 EARTH'S POPULATION LIVES IN 1497 00:48:28,738 --> 00:48:28,005 SOUTHEAST ASIA UNDER THE 1498 00:48:30,073 --> 00:48:28,805 MONSOON. 1499 00:48:30,473 --> 00:48:30,140 TWO-THIRDS OF THE WORLD'S 1500 00:48:32,842 --> 00:48:30,540 POPULATION. 1501 00:48:34,611 --> 00:48:32,909 AND SO FOR THEM, IT THE EL NINO 1502 00:48:36,746 --> 00:48:34,678 IS REALLY PUNISHING. 1503 00:48:39,916 --> 00:48:36,813 WE'VE ALREADY SEEN IMPACTS, ARE 1504 00:48:40,283 --> 00:48:39,983 THE DROUGHT HAS ALREADY BEGUN IN 1505 00:48:42,552 --> 00:48:40,350 INDONESIA. 1506 00:48:43,787 --> 00:48:42,619 THEY'VE SEEN HEAVY FLOODING IN 1507 00:48:45,989 --> 00:48:43,854 ECUADOR AND PERU. 1508 00:48:48,024 --> 00:48:46,056 EVEN HAS IMPACTS IN AFRICA. 1509 00:48:48,525 --> 00:48:48,091 SOUTH AFRICA TENDS TO HAVE A 1510 00:48:50,694 --> 00:48:48,592 DROUGHT. 1511 00:48:52,495 --> 00:48:50,761 THE SUB SA HEAL WHICH IS 1512 00:48:52,796 --> 00:48:52,562 NORMALLY VERY DRY TENDS TO BE 1513 00:48:54,397 --> 00:48:52,863 WET. 1514 00:48:58,301 --> 00:48:54,464 THERE'S EVEN A CONNECTION IN 1515 00:49:00,203 --> 00:48:58,368 EUROPE IN THE BIG EL NINOS 1516 00:49:02,472 --> 00:49:00,270 EASTERN EUROPE AND WESTERN 1517 00:49:03,273 --> 00:49:02,539 RUSSIA HAVE EXTREME WINTERS. 1518 00:49:05,141 --> 00:49:03,340 EXTREME. 1519 00:49:06,910 --> 00:49:05,208 PUNISHING WINTERS. 1520 00:49:08,912 --> 00:49:06,977 SO I ALWAYS LIKE TO TELL THIS 1521 00:49:11,715 --> 00:49:08,979 STORY ABOUT EL NINO. 1522 00:49:12,315 --> 00:49:11,782 ANYBODY REMEMBER WHAT HAPPENED 1523 00:49:14,718 --> 00:49:12,382 IN 1812? 1524 00:49:15,151 --> 00:49:14,785 COME ON, YOU GOT TO KNOW SOME 1525 00:49:18,421 --> 00:49:15,218 HISTORY. 1526 00:49:20,924 --> 00:49:18,488 WHAT HAPPENED IN 112? 1527 00:49:21,658 --> 00:49:20,991 >> NAPOLEON. 1528 00:49:23,426 --> 00:49:21,725 ALL RIGHT? 1529 00:49:25,295 --> 00:49:23,493 NAPOLEON MARCHED LIKE 400,000 1530 00:49:25,595 --> 00:49:25,362 TROOPS INTO THE HEART OF RUSSIA, 1531 00:49:28,131 --> 00:49:25,662 RIGHT? 1532 00:49:33,236 --> 00:49:28,198 AND THEY ALL FROZE TO DEATH. 1533 00:49:33,870 --> 00:49:33,303 NOW WHAT HAPPENED IN 1941? 1534 00:49:36,373 --> 00:49:33,937 SAME THING. 1535 00:49:38,708 --> 00:49:36,440 YOU KNOW, A SECOND EUROPEAN 1536 00:49:40,176 --> 00:49:38,775 DESPOT, A DO HAVE HITLER MARCHED 1537 00:49:41,611 --> 00:49:40,243 ALL HIS TROOPS INTO RUSSIA THE 1538 00:49:42,312 --> 00:49:41,678 SAME THING AND THEY ALL FROEDS 1539 00:49:44,647 --> 00:49:42,379 TO DEATH. 1540 00:49:47,150 --> 00:49:44,714 AND SO THE WINTER OF 1812 AND 1541 00:49:49,319 --> 00:49:47,217 THE WINTER OF 1941, THAT 1542 00:49:49,686 --> 00:49:49,386 FINISHED OFF HITLER AND 1543 00:49:51,755 --> 00:49:49,753 NAPOLEON. 1544 00:49:53,223 --> 00:49:51,822 AND SO SOME PEOPLE SAY THAT 1545 00:49:54,090 --> 00:49:53,290 RUSSIA ACTUALLY DEFEATED 1546 00:49:55,925 --> 00:49:54,157 NAPOLEON AND HITLER. 1547 00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:55,992 AND YOU KNOW, THAT'S DEFINITELY 1548 00:50:00,997 --> 00:49:56,827 NOT TRUE. 1549 00:50:01,297 --> 00:50:01,064 IT WAS EL NINO. 1550 00:50:03,166 --> 00:50:01,364 OKAY. 1551 00:50:03,566 --> 00:50:03,233 WRAP IT UP HERE. 1552 00:50:04,167 --> 00:50:03,633 ALL RIGHT? 1553 00:50:06,736 --> 00:50:04,234 ALL RIGHT. 1554 00:50:08,338 --> 00:50:06,803 WHAT CAN WE EXPECT IF EL NINO 1555 00:50:10,940 --> 00:50:08,405 DELIVERS? 1556 00:50:11,641 --> 00:50:11,007 1982, '83. 1557 00:50:13,043 --> 00:50:11,708 '97-'98. 1558 00:50:14,277 --> 00:50:13,110 30 INCHES. 1559 00:50:16,613 --> 00:50:14,344 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GOT DOUBLE 1560 00:50:16,913 --> 00:50:16,680 ITS NORMAL RAINFALL. 1561 00:50:18,481 --> 00:50:16,980 OKAY? 1562 00:50:19,816 --> 00:50:18,548 WOULDN'T THAT BE GREAT? 1563 00:50:20,683 --> 00:50:19,883 OF COURSE, IT, WOULDN'T MAKE 1564 00:50:23,453 --> 00:50:20,750 MUCH DIFFERENCE TO US BECAUSE 1565 00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:23,520 WHAT HAPPENS TO ALL OUR RAIN IN 1566 00:50:25,388 --> 00:50:24,187 L.A.? 1567 00:50:26,790 --> 00:50:25,455 YEAH, YOU GUYS KNOW. 1568 00:50:28,892 --> 00:50:26,857 IT ALL GOES OUT INTO THE OCEAN 1569 00:50:29,292 --> 00:50:28,959 BECAUSE ALL THE RIVERS ARE 1570 00:50:30,627 --> 00:50:29,359 CONCRETED. 1571 00:50:32,395 --> 00:50:30,694 BUT STILL IT WOULD BE NICE. 1572 00:50:34,130 --> 00:50:32,462 MAYBE MY LAWN WOULD FINALLY COME 1573 00:50:36,866 --> 00:50:34,197 BACK BUT I DON'T THINK SO. 1574 00:50:37,267 --> 00:50:36,933 I THINK IT'S GONE FOREVER. 1575 00:50:38,868 --> 00:50:37,334 ALL RIGHT? 1576 00:50:41,571 --> 00:50:38,935 NOW, LET'S LOOK AT THE SNOWPACK 1577 00:50:42,372 --> 00:50:41,638 WHICH IS MORE IMPORTANT. 1578 00:50:44,974 --> 00:50:42,439 SAME THING. 1579 00:50:46,810 --> 00:50:45,041 IS THAT IN THOSE TWO WENTERS WE 1580 00:50:48,778 --> 00:50:46,877 ESSENTIALLY GOT DOUBLE THE 1581 00:50:49,646 --> 00:50:48,845 SNOWPACK NAN THE SIERRAS UP AND 1582 00:50:50,847 --> 00:50:49,713 DOWN THE STATE. 1583 00:50:51,881 --> 00:50:50,914 THAT WOULD BE SWEET. 1584 00:50:55,552 --> 00:50:51,948 THAT WOULD DEFINITELY BE SWEET. 1585 00:50:55,852 --> 00:50:55,619 SO I'M EXCITED ABOUT THAT. 1586 00:50:58,421 --> 00:50:55,919 OKAY. 1587 00:51:01,491 --> 00:50:58,488 SO HERE WE GO. 1588 00:51:03,927 --> 00:51:01,558 ONE OF MY THEORYS IS A REALLY 1589 00:51:05,795 --> 00:51:03,994 BIG EL NINO REDISTRIBUTES SO 1590 00:51:08,731 --> 00:51:05,862 MUCH HEAT IN THE PACIFIC, IT CAN 1591 00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:08,798 ACTUALLY FLIP THE PDO. 1592 00:51:12,569 --> 00:51:10,667 FROM A WARM PHASE TO A COOL 1593 00:51:13,470 --> 00:51:12,636 PHASE OR A COOL PHASE TO HE AN 1594 00:51:14,904 --> 00:51:13,537 WARM PHASE. 1595 00:51:16,439 --> 00:51:14,971 AND WE'VE SEEN THAT IN THE PAST 1596 00:51:18,975 --> 00:51:16,506 BUT I DIDN'T PUT THAT SLIDE UP. 1597 00:51:20,643 --> 00:51:19,042 SO THE QUESTION IS, IS THIS BIG 1598 00:51:23,580 --> 00:51:20,710 EL NINO WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE 1599 00:51:27,117 --> 00:51:23,647 THE POSITIVE PDO, ALL RIGHT, IS 1600 00:51:29,586 --> 00:51:27,184 IT GOING TO FLIP THE PDO, ALL 1601 00:51:33,156 --> 00:51:29,653 RIGHT, TO A POSITIVE PHASE? 1602 00:51:34,057 --> 00:51:33,223 AND REMEMBER, THE DROUGHT BUSTER 1603 00:51:36,226 --> 00:51:34,124 IS WHAT? 1604 00:51:36,659 --> 00:51:36,293 IT'S THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE 1605 00:51:39,963 --> 00:51:36,726 PDO. 1606 00:51:40,497 --> 00:51:40,030 NOT THE EL NINO. 1607 00:51:40,797 --> 00:51:40,564 ALL RIGHT? 1608 00:51:41,364 --> 00:51:40,864 OKAY. 1609 00:51:43,333 --> 00:51:41,431 SO HERE IT IS. 1610 00:51:44,100 --> 00:51:43,400 YOU MADE IT TO THE END. 1611 00:51:46,169 --> 00:51:44,167 ALL RIGHT. 1612 00:51:47,837 --> 00:51:46,236 NOW, GODZILLA EL NINO WOULD BE 1613 00:51:49,172 --> 00:51:47,904 SWEET AND A HUGE DOWN PAYMENT ON 1614 00:51:51,141 --> 00:51:49,239 DROUGHT RELIEF. 1615 00:51:51,441 --> 00:51:51,208 I MEAN WE'RE PRETTY DESPERATE 1616 00:51:53,009 --> 00:51:51,508 HERE. 1617 00:51:54,577 --> 00:51:53,076 LET'S GET RIGHT DOWN TO IT. 1618 00:51:55,612 --> 00:51:54,644 WE NEED SOME WATER. 1619 00:51:57,747 --> 00:51:55,679 OF COURSE, YOU'D HAVE TO SURVIVE 1620 00:51:58,781 --> 00:51:57,814 THE FLOODS AND THE MUDSLIDES AND 1621 00:52:00,950 --> 00:51:58,848 THE HAVOC. 1622 00:52:04,454 --> 00:52:01,017 REMEMBER THE LAST TWO THE BIG EL 1623 00:52:06,022 --> 00:52:04,521 NINOS '82, '83, '97, '98 WE WERE 1624 00:52:08,158 --> 00:52:06,089 NOT IN A DROUGHT. 1625 00:52:09,626 --> 00:52:08,225 SO THOSE EL NINOS IF YOU WERE 1626 00:52:10,994 --> 00:52:09,693 AROUND, WERE NEVER BILLED AS 1627 00:52:15,064 --> 00:52:11,061 DROUGHT BUSTERS. 1628 00:52:16,599 --> 00:52:15,131 I WENT THROUGH THE WHOLE '97-'9 1629 00:52:19,269 --> 00:52:16,666 EL NINO AND NOBODY EVER ASKED ME 1630 00:52:22,071 --> 00:52:19,336 ONCE IS THIS A DROUGHT BUSTER. 1631 00:52:24,807 --> 00:52:22,138 BECAUSE WE WEREN'T IN A DROUGHT. 1632 00:52:27,010 --> 00:52:24,874 BUT THEY WERE PLANNING ON MUD 1633 00:52:28,778 --> 00:52:27,077 SLIDES AND HAVOC, RIGHT? 1634 00:52:31,414 --> 00:52:28,845 BUT A SWITCH TO THE POSITIVE PDO 1635 00:52:33,116 --> 00:52:31,481 WHICH WOULD BE LONGER TERM, 1636 00:52:34,217 --> 00:52:33,183 REMEMBER, THERE'S NO QUICK FIX 1637 00:52:35,552 --> 00:52:34,284 TO THE DROUGHT. 1638 00:52:37,287 --> 00:52:35,619 ONE YEAR IS NEVER GOING TO GET 1639 00:52:39,956 --> 00:52:37,354 YOU OUT OF HAD DROUGHT IS REALLY 1640 00:52:40,356 --> 00:52:40,023 THE DROUGHT BUSTER. 1641 00:52:42,225 --> 00:52:40,423 ALL RIGHT? 1642 00:52:44,027 --> 00:52:42,292 GIVE US A DECADE OR MORE OF 1643 00:52:45,395 --> 00:52:44,094 ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND 1644 00:52:47,263 --> 00:52:45,462 SNOWPACK, AND SO THAT'S REALLY 1645 00:52:47,931 --> 00:52:47,330 WHAT WE HAVE OUR FINKS CROSSED. 1646 00:52:48,364 --> 00:52:47,998 BEEN A GREAT AUDIENCE. 1647 00:53:07,984 --> 00:52:48,431 THANKS A LOT. 1648 00:53:08,551 --> 00:53:08,051 [ APPLAUSE ] 1649 00:53:09,586 --> 00:53:08,618 >> OKAY. 1650 00:53:11,554 --> 00:53:09,653 ANYBODY HAVE ANY QUESTIONS? 1651 00:53:13,189 --> 00:53:11,621 LOVE TO ANSWER -- YOU KNOW, 1652 00:53:14,757 --> 00:53:13,256 THERE'S SO MUCH I SKIPPED OVER 1653 00:53:15,658 --> 00:53:14,824 AND I KNOW THAT PEOPLE HAVE A 1654 00:53:22,498 --> 00:53:15,725 LOT OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THIS 1655 00:53:22,899 --> 00:53:22,565 DROUGHT AND THE EL NINO. 1656 00:53:25,101 --> 00:53:22,966 YES, SIR. 1657 00:53:26,469 --> 00:53:25,168 >> PDO -- ARE YOU AMERICANING 1658 00:53:27,904 --> 00:53:26,536 THE SAME THEY THINK THAT YOU 1659 00:53:29,806 --> 00:53:27,971 MEASURED TO TRACK EL NINO? 1660 00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:29,873 INTO NO, THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. 1661 00:53:33,676 --> 00:53:30,507 EXCELLENT QUESTION. 1662 00:53:36,479 --> 00:53:33,743 THE PDO IS SAY SEA SURFACE 1663 00:53:40,350 --> 00:53:36,546 TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENT, OKAY? 1664 00:53:42,218 --> 00:53:40,417 THE SATELLITES -- MY EL NIPIO 1665 00:53:43,553 --> 00:53:42,285 TALK STALKERS THAT'S A SEA 1666 00:53:44,787 --> 00:53:43,620 SURFACE HEIGHT MEASUREMENT. 1667 00:53:48,992 --> 00:53:44,854 THEY'RE COMPLIMENTARY BUT THEY 1668 00:53:51,327 --> 00:53:49,059 DO MEASURE DIFFERENT THINGS. 1669 00:53:51,761 --> 00:53:51,394 YES, SIR, IN THE BACK. 1670 00:53:54,464 --> 00:53:51,828 >> YES. 1671 00:53:55,798 --> 00:53:54,531 >> I HAVE A QUESTION. 1672 00:53:59,702 --> 00:53:55,865 THERE WAS AN INTENSE RAINFALL 1673 00:54:00,336 --> 00:53:59,769 THROUGHOUT THE YEAR AND I THINK 1674 00:54:01,971 --> 00:54:00,403 IT WAS 2005 OR '06. 1675 00:54:03,339 --> 00:54:02,038 >> 2004, 2005. 1676 00:54:04,274 --> 00:54:03,406 >> AND THERE WAS FLOURS IN THE 1677 00:54:04,941 --> 00:54:04,341 DESERT AND ALL THAT. 1678 00:54:06,142 --> 00:54:05,008 >> FANTASTIC. 1679 00:54:08,478 --> 00:54:06,209 >> HOW DOES THAT -- 1680 00:54:10,613 --> 00:54:08,545 >> YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU LOOK AT 1681 00:54:11,481 --> 00:54:10,680 HOW WE GET OUR RAIN IN 1682 00:54:13,483 --> 00:54:11,548 CALIFORNIA, EVERYBODY MAKES A 1683 00:54:16,185 --> 00:54:13,550 BIG DEAL OUT OF EL NINO. 1684 00:54:18,087 --> 00:54:16,252 BUT IN ACTUAL FACT, OVER THE 1685 00:54:20,990 --> 00:54:18,154 LANGUAGE HAUL WE ONLY GET 7% OF 1686 00:54:21,324 --> 00:54:21,057 OUR RAIN FROM EL NINO. 1687 00:54:22,025 --> 00:54:21,391 7%. 1688 00:54:25,228 --> 00:54:22,092 THAT'S ALL. 1689 00:54:26,462 --> 00:54:25,295 ALMOST 50% COMES FROM THESE AT 1690 00:54:28,431 --> 00:54:26,529 MOSS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENTS, 1691 00:54:30,767 --> 00:54:28,498 THESE FIRE HOSE EVENTS WHICH ARE 1692 00:54:31,067 --> 00:54:30,834 SO COOL LIKE IN THE DECEMBER OF 1693 00:54:32,969 --> 00:54:31,134 2010. 1694 00:54:34,470 --> 00:54:33,036 AND THEN IF YOU REALLY GET 1695 00:54:36,306 --> 00:54:34,537 LUCKY, YOU GET THESE COOL 1696 00:54:38,007 --> 00:54:36,373 STORMS, YOU KNOW, THESE CUTOFF 1697 00:54:38,975 --> 00:54:38,074 LOWS OUT OF THE GULF OF 1698 00:54:41,377 --> 00:54:39,042 ALASKAING THAT WORK THEIR WAY 1699 00:54:42,145 --> 00:54:41,444 DOWN THE SPINE OF THE SIERRAS. 1700 00:54:44,314 --> 00:54:42,212 THEY'RE COLD. 1701 00:54:45,615 --> 00:54:44,381 THEY GIVE YOU A LOT OF SNOW. 1702 00:54:47,850 --> 00:54:45,682 IF THEY STALL OFF LOS ANGELES, 1703 00:54:50,486 --> 00:54:47,917 IT GIVES YOU FOUR OR FIVE DAYS 1704 00:54:52,755 --> 00:54:50,553 OF REAL NICE RAIN. 1705 00:54:54,891 --> 00:54:52,822 AND THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED IN 1706 00:54:55,992 --> 00:54:54,958 2004, 2005. 1707 00:54:56,993 --> 00:54:56,059 THAT'S THE BEST. 1708 00:54:58,261 --> 00:54:57,060 ALL RIGHT? 1709 00:54:59,062 --> 00:54:58,328 AND, OF COURSE, WITH THIS 1710 00:55:02,665 --> 00:54:59,129 BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE THAT 1711 00:55:04,067 --> 00:55:02,732 WE'VE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW 1712 00:55:04,801 --> 00:55:04,134 YEARS, ALL THOSE STORMS WENT 1713 00:55:06,803 --> 00:55:04,868 NORTH AND ENDED UP IN CHICAGO 1714 00:55:12,575 --> 00:55:06,870 AND BOSTON. 1715 00:55:13,042 --> 00:55:12,642 GOOD QUESTION. 1716 00:55:14,744 --> 00:55:13,109 YES, SIR. 1717 00:55:16,779 --> 00:55:14,811 >> FROM THE TENOR OF YOUR TALK 1718 00:55:19,982 --> 00:55:16,846 AND FROM WE'RE GETTING FROM 1719 00:55:20,750 --> 00:55:20,049 GOVERNOR BROWN, DO WE GET THE 1720 00:55:22,318 --> 00:55:20,817 IMPRESSION THAT WE AS HUMANS ARE 1721 00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:22,385 SORT OF AT THE MERCY OF NATURAL 1722 00:55:26,255 --> 00:55:23,987 EVENTS AND VICTIMS OF THINGS 1723 00:55:27,824 --> 00:55:26,322 LIKE EARTHQUAKES, DROUGHTS, ET 1724 00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:27,891 CETERA BUT HISTORICALLY THAT HAS 1725 00:55:31,527 --> 00:55:31,027 NOT BEEN TRUE FOR COUNTRIES THAT 1726 00:55:33,863 --> 00:55:31,594 BUILD INFRASTRUCTURE. 1727 00:55:36,332 --> 00:55:33,930 AND YOU MADE ME AWARE THAT 50 1728 00:55:38,067 --> 00:55:36,399 YEARS AGO, PAD DINA CARSON 1729 00:55:39,736 --> 00:55:38,134 PROPOSED A PLAN CALLED THE NORTH 1730 00:55:41,771 --> 00:55:39,803 AMERICAN WATER AND POWER 1731 00:55:43,606 --> 00:55:41,838 ALLIANCE TO BRING WATER DOWN 1732 00:55:45,408 --> 00:55:43,673 FROM THE YUKON IN ALASKA AND 1733 00:55:46,008 --> 00:55:45,475 DISTRIBUTE IT THROUGHOUT THE 1734 00:55:48,478 --> 00:55:46,075 SOUTHWESTERN STATES. 1735 00:55:49,445 --> 00:55:48,545 THAT ALMOST PASSED THE SENATE IN 1736 00:55:51,314 --> 00:55:49,512 1964. 1737 00:55:52,515 --> 00:55:51,381 WHAT WOULD YOU SAY WOULD BE THE 1738 00:55:53,816 --> 00:55:52,582 DIFFERENCE TODAY IF THAT PROJECT 1739 00:55:55,084 --> 00:55:53,883 HAD BEEN BUILT? 1740 00:55:57,120 --> 00:55:55,151 >> FANTASTIC IDEA. 1741 00:56:00,423 --> 00:55:57,187 IF WE CAN BUILD A PIPELINE FROM 1742 00:56:01,457 --> 00:56:00,490 CANADA FOR OIL, WHICH WE DON'T 1743 00:56:03,493 --> 00:56:01,524 NEED, ALL RIGHT? 1744 00:56:05,128 --> 00:56:03,560 YOU KNOW, BUILDING A COUPLE OF 1745 00:56:06,729 --> 00:56:05,195 BIG WATER PIPELINES BECAUSE 1746 00:56:09,165 --> 00:56:06,796 WATER IS ONE OF THEIR GREAT 1747 00:56:11,801 --> 00:56:09,232 NATURAL RESOURCES, WE COULD TURN 1748 00:56:15,204 --> 00:56:11,868 THE AMERICAN DESERT, THE MEXICAN 1749 00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:15,271 DESERT, ALL OF INLAND AREAS IN 1750 00:56:18,775 --> 00:56:17,507 THE WEST THAT ARE SO DRY, WE 1751 00:56:19,876 --> 00:56:18,842 COULD MAKE THEM BLOOM. 1752 00:56:21,411 --> 00:56:19,943 THE PROBLEM IS, CANADA DOESN'T 1753 00:56:22,745 --> 00:56:21,478 WANT TO GIVE US THE WATER. 1754 00:56:24,981 --> 00:56:22,812 BUT IT'S A TERRIFIC IDEA. 1755 00:56:27,450 --> 00:56:25,048 YOU KNOW, WILLIAM SHATNER TALKED 1756 00:56:29,085 --> 00:56:27,517 ABOUT IT A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO. 1757 00:56:31,521 --> 00:56:29,152 BUT I LOVE THE WATER PIPELINE. 1758 00:56:31,821 --> 00:56:31,588 I WROTE A PAPER ABOUT IT IN 1759 00:56:37,026 --> 00:56:31,888 1965. 1760 00:56:39,362 --> 00:56:37,093 EVERYBODY IGNORED IT. 1761 00:56:40,329 --> 00:56:39,429 YES, SIR, YOU'RE STANDING THERE. 1762 00:56:41,898 --> 00:56:40,396 >> WELL, MY QUESTION IS RELATED 1763 00:56:44,634 --> 00:56:41,965 TO SOME OF THE OTHER QUESTIONS. 1764 00:56:46,536 --> 00:56:44,701 SO FAR YOU SHOWED THE GRAPH 1765 00:56:49,038 --> 00:56:46,603 WHERE THE JET STREAM WENT VERY 1766 00:56:50,807 --> 00:56:49,105 FAR NORTH AND PUSHED ALL THE 1767 00:56:51,140 --> 00:56:50,874 WATER AROUND THE WHOLE WEST 1768 00:56:51,507 --> 00:56:51,207 COAST. 1769 00:56:53,142 --> 00:56:51,574 >> YES. 1770 00:56:54,844 --> 00:56:53,209 >> I'VE ALSO HEARD THERE'S BEEN 1771 00:56:55,178 --> 00:56:54,911 DROUGHT THAT EVEN UP INTO 1772 00:56:55,945 --> 00:56:55,245 ALASKA. 1773 00:56:58,681 --> 00:56:56,012 >> ABSOLUTELY. 1774 00:57:01,050 --> 00:56:58,748 >> SO IS THERE -- DOES THE WATER 1775 00:57:03,119 --> 00:57:01,117 ALWAYS FALL SOMEWHERE OR CAN IT 1776 00:57:07,523 --> 00:57:03,186 FALL ON THE OCEAN ITSELF AND NOT 1777 00:57:09,292 --> 00:57:07,590 EVEN GET TO LAND OR WITH GLOBAL 1778 00:57:11,227 --> 00:57:09,359 WARMING THERE'S MORE MOISTURE IN 1779 00:57:12,728 --> 00:57:11,294 THE ATMOSPHERE SO YOU WOULD 1780 00:57:15,097 --> 00:57:12,795 THINK THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF RAP 1781 00:57:17,099 --> 00:57:15,164 WOULD KEEP GOING UP. 1782 00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:17,166 CAN EVERYBODY BE IN A DROUGHT AT 1783 00:57:18,901 --> 00:57:17,467 ONCE? 1784 00:57:20,603 --> 00:57:18,968 >> THE INTERESTING THING THERE'S 1785 00:57:21,504 --> 00:57:20,670 ALWAYS THE SAME AMOUNT OF WATER 1786 00:57:23,272 --> 00:57:21,571 ON THE PLANET AND MORE OR LESS 1787 00:57:23,573 --> 00:57:23,339 THE SAME AMOUNT OF RAIN EACH 1788 00:57:25,174 --> 00:57:23,640 YEAR. 1789 00:57:28,911 --> 00:57:25,241 THE DIFFERENCE IS WHO GETS IT. 1790 00:57:31,681 --> 00:57:28,978 SO ESSENTIALLY BOSTON, CHICAGO, 1791 00:57:32,148 --> 00:57:31,748 EAST, WEST AND MIDWEST GOT OUR 1792 00:57:34,584 --> 00:57:32,215 RAIN. 1793 00:57:35,485 --> 00:57:34,651 THEY GOT WAY MORE SNOW THAN THEY 1794 00:57:35,885 --> 00:57:35,552 WANTED. 1795 00:57:37,420 --> 00:57:35,952 ALL RIGHT? 1796 00:57:38,921 --> 00:57:37,487 AND WE DIDN'T GET ANY. 1797 00:57:41,090 --> 00:57:38,988 SO WHAT THESE BIG PATTERNS 1798 00:57:43,493 --> 00:57:41,157 WHETHER IT'S THE PDO OR THE EL 1799 00:57:45,828 --> 00:57:43,560 NINO DO, THEY REDISTRIBUTE ALL 1800 00:57:48,798 --> 00:57:45,895 THE PIECES ON WEATHER BOARD. 1801 00:57:49,699 --> 00:57:48,865 SO PLACES THAT ARE DRY GET WET. 1802 00:57:51,634 --> 00:57:49,766 ALL RIGHT? 1803 00:57:54,770 --> 00:57:51,701 PLACES THAT WERE WET FOR A 1804 00:57:57,940 --> 00:57:54,837 DECADE OR TWO TURN INTO DROUGHT. 1805 00:57:59,575 --> 00:57:58,007 AND SO THESE GREAT DECADAL OR 1806 00:58:02,111 --> 00:57:59,642 SEMIANNUAL THINGS LIKE EL NINO 1807 00:58:04,881 --> 00:58:02,178 OR LA NINA AND THIS HAS BEEN THE 1808 00:58:06,883 --> 00:58:04,948 HISTORY OF CIVILIZATION IS THAT 1809 00:58:08,618 --> 00:58:06,950 YOU KNOW IN THE AMERICAN WEST, 1810 00:58:11,354 --> 00:58:08,685 WE'VE SEEN GREAT DROUGHTS. 1811 00:58:11,754 --> 00:58:11,421 UNG SEE IT IN THREE RINGS FOR 1812 00:58:14,290 --> 00:58:11,821 CENTURIES. 1813 00:58:16,359 --> 00:58:14,357 AND SOME OF THESE PDO DROUGHT 1814 00:58:19,462 --> 00:58:16,426 THINGS IN THE 13th CENTURY WE 1815 00:58:20,463 --> 00:58:19,529 HAD A DROUGHT THAT LASTED 100 1816 00:58:21,397 --> 00:58:20,530 YEARS. 1817 00:58:24,834 --> 00:58:21,464 CALLED THE MEGADROUGHT. 1818 00:58:25,134 --> 00:58:24,901 JUST HOPE WE'RE NOT IN ONE OF 1819 00:58:26,702 --> 00:58:25,201 THOSE. 1820 00:58:29,238 --> 00:58:26,769 >> SO CAN -- DOES AUSTRALIA GET 1821 00:58:30,306 --> 00:58:29,305 MORE WATER WHEN WE GET LESS? 1822 00:58:30,973 --> 00:58:30,373 >> ABSOLUTELY. 1823 00:58:33,175 --> 00:58:31,040 >> EXACTLY. 1824 00:58:34,176 --> 00:58:33,242 BECAUSE ALL THE WARM WATERS IN 1825 00:58:36,345 --> 00:58:34,243 THE WEST. 1826 00:58:38,514 --> 00:58:36,412 >> YES, MA'AM. 1827 00:58:40,182 --> 00:58:38,581 >> WITH THE RAIN THAT THE -- 1828 00:58:42,418 --> 00:58:40,249 THAT TEXAS AND THOSE AREAS HAVE 1829 00:58:44,620 --> 00:58:42,485 GOTTEN IN THE LAST YEAR OR SO, 1830 00:58:47,757 --> 00:58:44,687 THAT HAS HELPED THEM, QUOTE 1831 00:58:48,424 --> 00:58:47,824 UNQUOTE, END HAIR PART OF THE 1832 00:58:50,126 --> 00:58:48,491 DROUGHT, HAVE ANY OF THE 1833 00:58:52,094 --> 00:58:50,193 AQUIFERS BEEN ABLE TO BENEFIT 1834 00:58:53,829 --> 00:58:52,161 FROM THEIR LATEST DROUGHT TIME? 1835 00:58:55,364 --> 00:58:53,896 OUR AQUIFERS HAVE BEEN DRAINED. 1836 00:58:56,866 --> 00:58:55,431 >> THE QUESTION IS ALL THE HEAVY 1837 00:58:59,302 --> 00:58:56,933 RAINS THAT THEY'VE HAD IN TEXAS, 1838 00:59:03,506 --> 00:58:59,369 HAS THAT IMPROVED THE SITUATION 1839 00:59:03,873 --> 00:59:03,573 IN TERMS OF REPLENISHING THEIR 1840 00:59:04,373 --> 00:59:03,940 AQUIFERS. 1841 00:59:06,375 --> 00:59:04,440 >> THANK YOU. 1842 00:59:08,744 --> 00:59:06,442 >> AND THE ANSWER IS NO. 1843 00:59:10,279 --> 00:59:08,811 BECAUSE MOST OF THE AQUIFERS 1844 00:59:13,649 --> 00:59:10,346 THEY'RE SHALLOW GROUNDWATER 1845 00:59:17,620 --> 00:59:13,716 BASINS LIKE IN ALTADENA, LIKE IN 1846 00:59:20,556 --> 00:59:17,687 LA KANADA, LIKE IN SIERRA MADRE 1847 00:59:23,726 --> 00:59:20,623 AND RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE 1848 00:59:25,494 --> 00:59:23,793 SURFACE BUT THE DEEP AQUIFERS 1849 00:59:26,996 --> 00:59:25,561 THAT WERE LEFT, GRAVEL AND SAND 1850 00:59:29,498 --> 00:59:27,063 DEPOSITS THEY'RE DEEP, 1,000 1851 00:59:31,100 --> 00:59:29,565 FEET BENEATH THE SURFACE. 1852 00:59:32,068 --> 00:59:31,167 THAT'S WATER FROM THE 1853 00:59:34,403 --> 00:59:32,135 PLEISTOCENE, THAT'S NOT WATER 1854 00:59:36,639 --> 00:59:34,470 THAT GETS REFILLED WHEN YOU HAVE 1855 00:59:38,140 --> 00:59:36,706 HEAVY RAIN FOR A WINTER. 1856 00:59:40,309 --> 00:59:38,207 SO THAT WATER IS THE 10,000 1857 00:59:41,477 --> 00:59:40,376 YEARS OLD. 1858 00:59:42,545 --> 00:59:41,544 AND, OF COURSE, ALL OVER THE 1859 00:59:44,814 --> 00:59:42,612 UNITED STATES AS WELL AS ALL 1860 00:59:46,882 --> 00:59:44,881 OVER THE WORLD, THESE DEEP 1861 00:59:48,718 --> 00:59:46,949 AQUIFERS HAVE BEEN DRILLED 1862 00:59:49,051 --> 00:59:48,785 PRIMARILY FOR AGRICULTURE, ALL 1863 00:59:51,387 --> 00:59:49,118 RIGHT? 1864 00:59:54,056 --> 00:59:51,454 AND SOONER OR LATER, LIKE I SAID 1865 00:59:54,590 --> 00:59:54,123 EARLIER, WE HEAR THE BIG SUCKING 1866 00:59:54,957 --> 00:59:54,657 SOUND. 1867 00:59:56,626 --> 00:59:55,024 ALL RIGHT? 1868 00:59:58,995 --> 00:59:56,693 AND THAT'S SCARY. 1869 00:59:59,996 --> 00:59:59,062 IT GOES -- IT'S TOTALLY 1870 01:00:01,797 --> 01:00:00,063 UNREGULATED IN CALIFORNIA. 1871 01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:01,864 IF YOU LIVE ABOVE AN AQUIFER, 1872 01:00:05,234 --> 01:00:04,867 YOU OWN THE AQUIFER. 1873 01:00:07,703 --> 01:00:05,301 YES, MA'AM. 1874 01:00:09,872 --> 01:00:07,770 >> HOW LONG DO YOU HAVE TO WAIT 1875 01:00:11,641 --> 01:00:09,939 UNTIL YOU KNOW WHETHER THE PDO 1876 01:00:13,509 --> 01:00:11,708 HAS FLIPPED OR NOT? 1877 01:00:17,613 --> 01:00:13,576 >> ABOUT FIVE YEARS, SIX YEARS. 1878 01:00:18,648 --> 01:00:17,680 I'LL BE RETIRED BY THEN SO -- 1879 01:00:19,448 --> 01:00:18,715 YEAH, IT'S SLOW. 1880 01:00:20,950 --> 01:00:19,515 YOU KNOW? 1881 01:00:22,752 --> 01:00:21,017 AND YOU KNOW, YOU THINK YOU'RE 1882 01:00:24,286 --> 01:00:22,819 IN IT LIKE I SAID EARLIER. 1883 01:00:25,221 --> 01:00:24,353 THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN, YOU'RE OUT 1884 01:00:25,921 --> 01:00:25,288 OF IT. 1885 01:00:27,490 --> 01:00:25,988 YOU KNOW? 1886 01:00:32,795 --> 01:00:27,557 OR YOU'RE OUT AND THEN THEY PULL 1887 01:00:36,198 --> 01:00:32,862 YOU BACK IN LIKE THE GODFATHER, 1888 01:00:36,599 --> 01:00:36,265 REMEMBER? 1889 01:00:38,167 --> 01:00:36,666 YES, SIR. 1890 01:00:41,737 --> 01:00:38,234 >> WHAT WOULD THE EFFECT OF 1891 01:00:43,973 --> 01:00:41,804 BUILDING SAY A DOZEN OR SO 1892 01:00:44,640 --> 01:00:44,040 NUCLEAR DESALINATION PLANTS ON 1893 01:00:45,541 --> 01:00:44,707 THE COAST HAVE. 1894 01:00:47,843 --> 01:00:45,608 >> AN EXCELLENT QUESTION. 1895 01:00:48,344 --> 01:00:47,910 THERE'S A LOT OF WATER OUT THERE 1896 01:00:49,512 --> 01:00:48,411 IN THE PACIFIC. 1897 01:00:51,714 --> 01:00:49,579 LET'S FACE IT, THAT'S WHERE ALL 1898 01:00:53,082 --> 01:00:51,781 THE WATER IS, IT'S OUT THERE IN 1899 01:00:54,483 --> 01:00:53,149 THE PACIFIC EXCEPT IT'S SALTY. 1900 01:00:56,719 --> 01:00:54,550 SO WE'VE GOT TO THE FIGURE OUT 1901 01:00:58,621 --> 01:00:56,786 HOW TO TAKE THE SALT OUT OF IT. 1902 01:01:00,923 --> 01:00:58,688 THEY HAVE MODERN TECHNOLOGY 1903 01:01:04,560 --> 01:01:00,990 TODAY WHICH CAN TAKE THROUGH 1904 01:01:06,762 --> 01:01:04,627 VARIOUS FILTERS AND AN AWFUL LOT 1905 01:01:07,930 --> 01:01:06,829 OF POWER, THEY CAN TURN 1906 01:01:10,366 --> 01:01:07,997 SALTWATER INTO FRESH WATER. 1907 01:01:12,068 --> 01:01:10,433 RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST DESAL 1908 01:01:14,937 --> 01:01:12,135 PLANT EMPTY WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1909 01:01:15,838 --> 01:01:15,004 IS BEING BUILT IN CARLSBAD, 1910 01:01:17,406 --> 01:01:15,905 NORTH ZAENG COUNTY. 1911 01:01:19,375 --> 01:01:17,473 THE COST OF THAT, THEY'VE BEEN 1912 01:01:21,143 --> 01:01:19,442 BUILDING IT FOR TEN YEARS. 1913 01:01:21,544 --> 01:01:21,210 COST IS IT $1 BILLION. 1914 01:01:24,246 --> 01:01:21,611 ALL RIGHT? 1915 01:01:27,116 --> 01:01:24,313 SOUGHT TAXPAYERS. 1916 01:01:29,051 --> 01:01:27,183 AND IT WILL TAKE CARE OF ABOUT 1917 01:01:29,719 --> 01:01:29,118 7% OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY'S WATER 1918 01:01:31,087 --> 01:01:29,786 NEEDS. 1919 01:01:33,989 --> 01:01:31,154 IF IT WORKS. 1920 01:01:34,523 --> 01:01:34,056 THEY HAVEN'T TURNED IT ON YET. 1921 01:01:36,959 --> 01:01:34,590 ALL RIGHT. 1922 01:01:38,828 --> 01:01:37,026 SO LET'S JUST TAKE THIS THING 1923 01:01:40,096 --> 01:01:38,895 OUT TO ITS LOGICAL CONCLUSION. 1924 01:01:42,398 --> 01:01:40,163 WE'RE OUT OF WATER. 1925 01:01:43,833 --> 01:01:42,465 SO IF THE CITIES IN CALIFORNIA 1926 01:01:46,635 --> 01:01:43,900 ARE GOING TO HAVE WATER, WE'RE 1927 01:01:46,969 --> 01:01:46,702 GOING TO HAVE TO BUILD DESAL 1928 01:01:49,238 --> 01:01:47,036 PLANTS. 1929 01:01:52,575 --> 01:01:49,305 AT A BILLION DOLLARS A POP. 1930 01:01:53,676 --> 01:01:52,642 WELL, I'VE CALCULATED HOW MANY 1931 01:01:55,544 --> 01:01:53,743 DESAL PLANTS YOU WOULD NEED TO 1932 01:01:56,612 --> 01:01:55,611 TAKE CARE OF ALL THE URBAN WATER 1933 01:01:59,181 --> 01:01:56,679 NEEDS IN CALIFORNIA. 1934 01:01:59,749 --> 01:01:59,248 THE NUMBER IS 200. 1935 01:02:02,651 --> 01:01:59,816 ALL RIGHT? 1936 01:02:05,254 --> 01:02:02,718 SO THAT'S $200 BILLION OF BOPDS 1937 01:02:06,021 --> 01:02:05,321 FOR THE TAXPAYERS. 1938 01:02:08,424 --> 01:02:06,088 ALL RIGHT? 1939 01:02:10,459 --> 01:02:08,491 AND FIGURING OUT IT WOULD TAKE 1940 01:02:14,096 --> 01:02:10,526 AT LEAST 20 YEARS BEFORE ANY OF 1941 01:02:14,497 --> 01:02:14,163 THEM GOT AN ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT 1942 01:02:14,897 --> 01:02:14,564 APPROVAL. 1943 01:02:20,069 --> 01:02:14,964 ALL RIGHT? 1944 01:02:21,871 --> 01:02:20,136 AND THE OTHER THING IS, THEY'RE 1945 01:02:23,606 --> 01:02:21,938 EXCEPTIONALLY ENERGY INTENSIVE. 1946 01:02:25,374 --> 01:02:23,673 IT TAKES A LOT OF POWER AND 1947 01:02:27,409 --> 01:02:25,441 ENERGY TO RUN THOSE DESAL PLANTS 1948 01:02:29,111 --> 01:02:27,476 AND ONCE YOU DESAL THE WATER, 1949 01:02:32,014 --> 01:02:29,178 YOU'RE AT SEA LEVEL. 1950 01:02:35,951 --> 01:02:32,081 AND WHERE ARE ALL THE CUSTOMERS? 1951 01:02:36,318 --> 01:02:36,018 ALL THE CUSTOMERS ARE UPHILL. 1952 01:02:38,687 --> 01:02:36,385 ALL RIGHT? 1953 01:02:42,525 --> 01:02:38,754 SO IN WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO DO 1954 01:02:45,127 --> 01:02:42,592 HERE IS SWITCH OUR ECONOMY FROM 1955 01:02:47,630 --> 01:02:45,194 AN OIL, GAS ECONOMY AND COAL 1956 01:02:48,230 --> 01:02:47,697 ECONOMY TO A RENEWABLE ENERGY 1957 01:02:48,631 --> 01:02:48,297 ECONOMY. 1958 01:02:51,100 --> 01:02:48,698 ALL RIGHT? 1959 01:02:51,467 --> 01:02:51,167 AND SO THERE'S A LOT OF 1960 01:02:53,169 --> 01:02:51,534 NEGATIVES. 1961 01:02:55,838 --> 01:02:53,236 ON THE OTHER HAND, YOU KNOW, 1962 01:02:57,940 --> 01:02:55,905 WHEN WE RUN OUT OF WATER, YOU 1963 01:02:59,942 --> 01:02:58,007 KNOW, PEOPLE GET DESPERATE AND 1964 01:03:00,342 --> 01:03:00,009 MAKE BAD DECISIONS. 1965 01:03:02,278 --> 01:03:00,409 ALL RIGHT? 1966 01:03:04,547 --> 01:03:02,345 WE'RE DEFINITELY NOT ALL GOING 1967 01:03:05,981 --> 01:03:04,614 TO GET IN OUR PRIUSS AND GO TO 1968 01:03:06,749 --> 01:03:06,048 BRITISH COLUMBIA, ALL RIGHT? 1969 01:03:08,450 --> 01:03:06,816 WE'RE STUCK HERE. 1970 01:03:08,851 --> 01:03:08,517 WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO FIGURE IT 1971 01:03:10,719 --> 01:03:08,918 OUT. 1972 01:03:13,289 --> 01:03:10,786 IT'S GOING TO BE MORE THAN 1973 01:03:14,256 --> 01:03:13,356 CUTTING BACK 25% ON YOUR HOPE 1974 01:03:16,192 --> 01:03:14,323 WATER USAGE. 1975 01:03:18,294 --> 01:03:16,259 IT'S BIGGER THAN THAT. 1976 01:03:19,595 --> 01:03:18,361 BUT YOU KNOW, DESAL I'M WILLING 1977 01:03:21,297 --> 01:03:19,662 TO LISTEN TO IT. 1978 01:03:22,932 --> 01:03:21,364 BUT IT'S EXPENSIVE. 1979 01:03:23,332 --> 01:03:22,999 IT'S POWER INTENSIVE. 1980 01:03:25,968 --> 01:03:23,399 ALL RIGHT? 1981 01:03:29,471 --> 01:03:26,035 SO ESSENTIALLY, 200 PLANTS, 1982 01:03:31,273 --> 01:03:29,538 YOU'D NEED A PLANT EVERY FOUR 1983 01:03:33,742 --> 01:03:31,340 MILES BETWEEN TIJUANA AND THE 1984 01:03:38,047 --> 01:03:33,809 OREGON BORDER TO SUPPLY ALL THE 1985 01:03:39,949 --> 01:03:38,114 URBAN WATER NEEDS FOR 1986 01:03:41,383 --> 01:03:40,016 CALIFORNIA. 1987 01:03:43,052 --> 01:03:41,450 YES, MA'AM. 1988 01:03:46,255 --> 01:03:43,119 >> WHAT ABOUT THE PLAN THAT 1989 01:03:49,258 --> 01:03:46,322 SUPPOSEDLY L.A. IS WORKING ON 1990 01:03:50,960 --> 01:03:49,325 WASTEWATER TO DRINKING WATER? 1991 01:03:53,295 --> 01:03:51,027 >> GREAT IDEA. 1992 01:03:54,864 --> 01:03:53,362 TOILET TO TAP. 1993 01:03:55,698 --> 01:03:54,931 TASTES BETTER THAN THE COLORADO 1994 01:03:57,600 --> 01:03:55,765 RIVER WATER. 1995 01:03:59,034 --> 01:03:57,667 DEFINITELY A GREAT IDEA. 1996 01:04:00,269 --> 01:03:59,101 THEY'RE DOING ITxWBB ALL RIGHT 1997 01:04:02,471 --> 01:04:00,336 THEY'RE JUST NOT TELLING YOU. 1998 01:04:04,340 --> 01:04:02,538 WE NEED MORE OF IT. 1999 01:04:06,008 --> 01:04:04,407 IT'S A GREAT IDEA. 2000 01:04:07,576 --> 01:04:06,075 AND THERE'S GRAY WATER. 2001 01:04:09,345 --> 01:04:07,643 WATER YOU USE IN YOUR YARD THAT 2002 01:04:11,480 --> 01:04:09,412 YOU USED IN YOUR WASHING MACHINE 2003 01:04:12,014 --> 01:04:11,547 AND YOUR DISHWASHER. 2004 01:04:13,616 --> 01:04:12,081 ALL RIGHT? 2005 01:04:16,752 --> 01:04:13,683 YOU KNOW, THIS DROUGHT IS IN 2006 01:04:17,186 --> 01:04:16,819 SOME WAYS IT'S AN ECONOMIC 2007 01:04:18,921 --> 01:04:17,253 OPPORTUNITY. 2008 01:04:21,457 --> 01:04:18,988 YOU KNOW, THIS IS CALIFORNIA. 2009 01:04:22,758 --> 01:04:21,524 YOU KNOW? 2010 01:04:23,125 --> 01:04:22,825 THIS IS NOT THIRD WORLD. 2011 01:04:24,159 --> 01:04:23,192 ALL RIGHT? 2012 01:04:26,095 --> 01:04:24,226 THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY. 2013 01:04:26,395 --> 01:04:26,162 WHEN HAVE YOU SOMETHING LIKE 2014 01:04:28,430 --> 01:04:26,462 THIS. 2015 01:04:31,000 --> 01:04:28,497 WE ENGINEERED OUR WAY OUT OF ALL 2016 01:04:31,634 --> 01:04:31,067 THE PAST DROUGHTS. 2017 01:04:32,334 --> 01:04:31,701 WE BUILT THE CALIFORNIA 2018 01:04:34,370 --> 01:04:32,401 ACQUESTION DUCKETT. 2019 01:04:34,737 --> 01:04:34,437 WE BUILT THE COLORADO ACQUESTION 2020 01:04:36,505 --> 01:04:34,804 DUCKETT. 2021 01:04:38,340 --> 01:04:36,572 WE BUILT DAMS EXCEPT NOW WE'VE 2022 01:04:38,707 --> 01:04:38,407 GO THE TO BE A LITTLE MORE 2023 01:04:40,009 --> 01:04:38,774 CREATIVE. 2024 01:04:41,977 --> 01:04:40,076 WE COULD BECOME THE WATER 2025 01:04:43,212 --> 01:04:42,044 FESHTCY EXPERTS FOR THE WORLD 2026 01:04:43,879 --> 01:04:43,279 BECAUSE THIS IS NOT JUST A 2027 01:04:46,715 --> 01:04:43,946 CALIFORNIA PROBLEM. 2028 01:04:47,116 --> 01:04:46,782 THIS IS A WORLD PROBLEM. 2029 01:04:48,884 --> 01:04:47,183 ALL RIGHT? 2030 01:04:50,953 --> 01:04:48,951 SO GET RIGHT DOWN TO IT, YOU 2031 01:04:52,054 --> 01:04:51,020 KNOW, ALL YOU YOUNG PEOPLE, YOU 2032 01:04:53,088 --> 01:04:52,121 KNOW, GET INTO THE WATER 2033 01:04:53,822 --> 01:04:53,155 EFFICIENT SIT BUSINESS. 2034 01:05:03,799 --> 01:04:53,889 THE AIR CONDITIONING BUSINESS, 2035 01:05:04,199 --> 01:05:03,866 TOO. 2036 01:05:06,769 --> 01:05:04,266 YES, SIR. 2037 01:05:09,872 --> 01:05:06,836 >> EXAMPLE WHICH APPARENTLY IS 2038 01:05:11,173 --> 01:05:09,939 ALL DESERT, CHIEF WATER 2039 01:05:12,608 --> 01:05:11,240 SELF-SUFFICIENCY THROUGH 2040 01:05:14,977 --> 01:05:12,675 DESALINATION AND RECOVERY OF 2041 01:05:16,545 --> 01:05:15,044 USED WATER, CAN THAT BE SCALED? 2042 01:05:16,979 --> 01:05:16,612 >> ISRAEL IS AN EXCELLENT 2043 01:05:18,580 --> 01:05:17,046 EXAMPLE. 2044 01:05:19,715 --> 01:05:18,647 THERE'S TWO COUNTRIES THAT 2045 01:05:21,784 --> 01:05:19,782 REALLY DRY COUNTRIES. 2046 01:05:24,153 --> 01:05:21,851 ISRAEL AND AUSTRALIA. 2047 01:05:26,088 --> 01:05:24,220 IN ISRAEL, THEY USE 50 GALLONS 2048 01:05:27,723 --> 01:05:26,155 OF WATER PER DAY PER PERSON. 2049 01:05:29,892 --> 01:05:27,790 I HOPE YOU'RE ALL WHEN YOU'RE 2050 01:05:31,260 --> 01:05:29,959 TAKING YOUR SHOWERS YOU SOAK 2051 01:05:33,095 --> 01:05:31,327 YOURSELF DOWN AND YOU TURN THE 2052 01:05:33,829 --> 01:05:33,162 WATER OFF AND THEN YOU SO. 2053 01:05:35,998 --> 01:05:33,896 YOU KNOW? 2054 01:05:38,467 --> 01:05:36,065 AND I HOPE YOU'RE ALL LETTING IT 2055 01:05:40,336 --> 01:05:38,534 MELLOW IN THE TOILET, ALL THAT 2056 01:05:42,137 --> 01:05:40,403 YELLOW, LET IT MELLOW, RIGHT? 2057 01:05:44,106 --> 01:05:42,204 I'M LIKE A CHAMPION. 2058 01:05:46,008 --> 01:05:44,173 I HAVE SAVED YOU'RE LOOKING AT A 2059 01:05:48,077 --> 01:05:46,075 GUY THAT IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS 2060 01:05:49,745 --> 01:05:48,144 HAS SAVED THOUSANDS OF GALLONS 2061 01:05:51,313 --> 01:05:49,812 OF WATER JUST LETTING THAT 2062 01:05:51,747 --> 01:05:51,380 YELLOW MELLOW. 2063 01:05:52,915 --> 01:05:51,814 ALL RIGHT? 2064 01:05:55,184 --> 01:05:52,982 BUT WHAT'S MY POINT? 2065 01:05:57,987 --> 01:05:55,251 IN ISRAEL, THEY USE 50 GALLONS 2066 01:06:00,055 --> 01:05:58,054 OF WATER PER DAY PER PERSON. 2067 01:06:03,192 --> 01:06:00,122 AUSTRALIA, THEY USE 80. 2068 01:06:03,459 --> 01:06:03,259 THE AVERAGE IN CALIFORNIA IS 2069 01:06:04,226 --> 01:06:03,526 160. 2070 01:06:05,728 --> 01:06:04,293 COME ON. 2071 01:06:09,331 --> 01:06:05,795 WE COULD DEFINITELY DO AS GOOD 2072 01:06:09,698 --> 01:06:09,398 AS AUSTRALIA. 2073 01:06:12,067 --> 01:06:09,765 ALL RIGHT? 2074 01:06:13,802 --> 01:06:12,134 AND BY THE WAY, THEY HAVE BIG 2075 01:06:15,971 --> 01:06:13,869 WATER TECHNOLOGY AND EFFICIENCY 2076 01:06:17,973 --> 01:06:16,038 INDUSTRIES IN BOTH COUNTRIES. 2077 01:06:19,575 --> 01:06:18,040 BUT ONE OF THE THINGS THE 2078 01:06:21,143 --> 01:06:19,642 AUSTRALIANS DID THEY CENTRALIZED 2079 01:06:21,543 --> 01:06:21,210 WATER MANAGEMENT. 2080 01:06:23,012 --> 01:06:21,610 ALL RIGHT? 2081 01:06:25,047 --> 01:06:23,079 SO NONE OF THIS STUFF WHERE YOU 2082 01:06:26,682 --> 01:06:25,114 KNOW IT'S THE WILD WEST HERE. 2083 01:06:27,082 --> 01:06:26,749 WHERE WE'VE GOT 600 WATER 2084 01:06:27,716 --> 01:06:27,149 DISTRICTS. 2085 01:06:30,152 --> 01:06:27,783 YOU KNOW? 2086 01:06:31,153 --> 01:06:30,219 AND WE'VE GOT LAWS THAT GO BACK 2087 01:06:32,588 --> 01:06:31,220 TO THE 19th CENTURY. 2088 01:06:34,123 --> 01:06:32,655 I GOT HERE FIRST. 2089 01:06:35,724 --> 01:06:34,190 IT'S MY WATER. 2090 01:06:37,059 --> 01:06:35,791 YOU KNOW. 2091 01:06:38,660 --> 01:06:37,126 AUSTRALIANS DID AWAY WITH ALL 2092 01:06:40,329 --> 01:06:38,727 THAT AND THEY HAD CENTRALIZED 2093 01:06:41,597 --> 01:06:40,396 PLANNING SO YOU GET A MORE 2094 01:06:43,232 --> 01:06:41,664 EQUITABLE BE DISTRIBUTION OF 2095 01:06:45,901 --> 01:06:43,299 WATER. 2096 01:06:49,938 --> 01:06:45,968 SO YOU KNOW, FRIPS, IN 2097 01:06:52,508 --> 01:06:50,005 AUSTRALIA, THE FARMERS DON'T GET 2098 01:06:53,675 --> 01:06:52,575 80% OF THE WATER. 2099 01:06:55,611 --> 01:06:53,742 >> TWO ONLINE QUESTIONS. 2100 01:06:59,948 --> 01:06:55,678 >> ONLINE QUESTIONS. 2101 01:07:01,817 --> 01:07:00,015 OKAY OH, GREAT. 2102 01:07:03,419 --> 01:07:01,884 ORBITAL BEAR ASKS, IS THERE 2103 01:07:04,787 --> 01:07:03,486 GEOLOGIC EVIDENCE OF EL NINO 2104 01:07:05,254 --> 01:07:04,854 PRIOR TO HISTORICAL 2105 01:07:06,789 --> 01:07:05,321 RECORDKEEPING. 2106 01:07:07,656 --> 01:07:06,856 THAT'S A AN GREAT QUESTION. 2107 01:07:09,758 --> 01:07:07,723 THERE SELF IS. 2108 01:07:11,260 --> 01:07:09,825 WHEN WE LOOK BACK IN TREE RING 2109 01:07:14,396 --> 01:07:11,327 RECORDS OVER THE LAST COUP OF 2110 01:07:16,665 --> 01:07:14,463 THOUSAND YEARS, WE SEE DRY 2111 01:07:18,033 --> 01:07:16,732 YEARS, WET YEARS, DRY DECADES, 2112 01:07:20,235 --> 01:07:18,100 WET DECADES. 2113 01:07:23,105 --> 01:07:20,302 AND SO THERE'S NO DOUBT THAT 2114 01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:23,172 THESE PDO EPISODES AND EL NINO 2115 01:07:28,277 --> 01:07:24,507 EPISODES HAVE BEEN HAPPENING FOR 2116 01:07:28,744 --> 01:07:28,344 THOUSANDS OF YEARS. 2117 01:07:29,111 --> 01:07:28,811 ALL RIGHT? 2118 01:07:32,347 --> 01:07:29,178 OKAY. 2119 01:07:33,949 --> 01:07:32,414 BE SMART ASKS, AND THE PNW 2120 01:07:37,486 --> 01:07:34,016 REGION, IS THERE A CHANCE OUR 2121 01:07:40,055 --> 01:07:37,553 CAN AQUIFERS MIGHT DRY UP? 2122 01:07:40,456 --> 01:07:40,122 EVEN WITH THE HEP OF AN EL-INIO. 2123 01:07:43,592 --> 01:07:40,523 ABSOLUTELY. 2124 01:07:45,894 --> 01:07:43,659 I THINK I TRIED TO GET THAT 2125 01:07:48,197 --> 01:07:45,961 MESSAGE ACROSS SOME OF THESE 2126 01:07:49,364 --> 01:07:48,264 DEEP AQUIFERS MY FAVORITE IS THE 2127 01:07:51,300 --> 01:07:49,431 COACHELLA VALLEY. 2128 01:07:53,602 --> 01:07:51,367 THERE'S A DEEP AQUIFER THERE. 2129 01:07:55,471 --> 01:07:53,669 AT ONE END OF THE AQUIFER, THIS 2130 01:07:56,805 --> 01:07:55,538 IS WATER THAT'S BEEN THERE 2131 01:08:00,509 --> 01:07:56,872 THOUSANDS OF YEARS. 2132 01:08:01,944 --> 01:08:00,576 THEY REPLENISH IT A LITTLE BIT. 2133 01:08:03,212 --> 01:08:02,011 ARROWHEAD IS PUMPING WATER OUT 2134 01:08:04,379 --> 01:08:03,279 OF THE AQUIFER. 2135 01:08:07,015 --> 01:08:04,446 THAT'S COCA-COLA AND SELLING IT 2136 01:08:08,717 --> 01:08:07,082 BACK TO ALL YOU PEOPLE, RIGHT, 2137 01:08:10,319 --> 01:08:08,784 AS THE EXORBITANT FEE. 2138 01:08:12,054 --> 01:08:10,386 THAT'S WATER YOU KNOW, THE 2139 01:08:13,288 --> 01:08:12,121 INDIANS ARE SELLING IT TO THEM 2140 01:08:15,524 --> 01:08:13,355 OFF THE RESERVATION. 2141 01:08:18,727 --> 01:08:15,591 AND AT THE OTHER END OF THE 2142 01:08:21,797 --> 01:08:18,794 AQUIFER, IT'S BEING PUMPED FOR 2143 01:08:22,664 --> 01:08:21,864 123 GOLF COULD YOURS IN PALM 2144 01:08:23,165 --> 01:08:22,731 SPRINGS. 2145 01:08:24,399 --> 01:08:23,232 OKAY? 2146 01:08:25,634 --> 01:08:24,466 123 GOLF COURSES. 2147 01:08:27,469 --> 01:08:25,701 THE AVERAGE RAINFALL IS FIVE 2148 01:08:28,871 --> 01:08:27,536 INCHES A YEAR IN PALM SPRINGS. 2149 01:08:30,205 --> 01:08:28,938 WHAT ARE THEY THINKING? 2150 01:08:31,140 --> 01:08:30,272 YOU KNOW? 2151 01:08:31,874 --> 01:08:31,207 ALL RIGHT. 2152 01:08:35,777 --> 01:08:31,941 IT'S RIDICULOUS. 2153 01:08:37,179 --> 01:08:35,844 YOU KNOW, IN PALM SPRINGS, IT 2154 01:08:39,882 --> 01:08:37,246 TAKES 300 MILLION GALLONS OF 2155 01:08:40,215 --> 01:08:39,949 WATER A YEAR FOR ONE GOLF 2156 01:08:42,684 --> 01:08:40,282 COURSE. 2157 01:08:44,720 --> 01:08:42,751 THAT SAME GOLF COURSE HERE IN 2158 01:08:46,421 --> 01:08:44,787 PASADENA ONLY TAKES 100 MILLION 2159 01:08:47,723 --> 01:08:46,488 GALLONS OF WATER A DAY. 2160 01:08:52,494 --> 01:08:47,790 SO IT'S THE MOST RIDICULOUS 2161 01:08:57,366 --> 01:08:52,561 THING I EVER HEARD OF. 2162 01:08:58,233 --> 01:08:57,433 103 -- 123 GOLF COURSES ALL THIS 2163 01:09:00,702 --> 01:08:58,300 PRECIOUS WATER THAT'S BEEN 2164 01:09:02,671 --> 01:09:00,769 PILING UP FOR THOUSANDS OF 2165 01:09:03,005 --> 01:09:02,738 YEARS, THEY'RE USING IT FOR GOLF 2166 01:09:04,773 --> 01:09:03,072 COURSES. 2167 01:09:11,713 --> 01:09:04,840 WHAT'S WRONG WITH RICH PEOPLE, 2168 01:09:13,882 --> 01:09:11,780 YOU KNOW IN RICH PEOPLE ARE 2169 01:09:14,516 --> 01:09:13,949 SELFISH. 2170 01:09:15,717 --> 01:09:14,583 YES, MA'AM. 2171 01:09:18,120 --> 01:09:15,784 >> WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH 2172 01:09:20,222 --> 01:09:18,187 PRESSURE UP IN THE AREA YOU 2173 01:09:22,925 --> 01:09:20,289 SHOWED, IF IT WERE TO SHIFT OVER 2174 01:09:23,759 --> 01:09:22,992 TO A LOW OR IT WERE TO GO AWAY 2175 01:09:27,496 --> 01:09:23,826 WOULD THAT HELP AT ALL. 2176 01:09:28,664 --> 01:09:27,563 >> OH, MAN, YOU KNOW, IF IT 2177 01:09:29,765 --> 01:09:28,731 SWITCHED TO A LOW PRESSURE 2178 01:09:31,366 --> 01:09:29,832 SYSTEM THAT WAS GENERATING 2179 01:09:32,768 --> 01:09:31,433 STORMS OUT OF THE GULF OF 2180 01:09:35,637 --> 01:09:32,835 ALASKA, MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN 2181 01:09:37,806 --> 01:09:35,704 THE WEST COAST, YOU KNOW, TILLED 2182 01:09:38,407 --> 01:09:37,873 BE SO HAPPY. 2183 01:09:41,009 --> 01:09:38,474 YOU KNOW? 2184 01:09:43,845 --> 01:09:41,076 BUT AND, OF COURSE, THAT COULD 2185 01:09:45,847 --> 01:09:43,912 HAPPEN IF WE SWITCH TO THE WARM 2186 01:09:46,148 --> 01:09:45,914 PHASE OF THE PDO FROM THE COOL 2187 01:09:48,483 --> 01:09:46,215 PHASE. 2188 01:09:50,519 --> 01:09:48,550 BUT YOU KNOW, THAT'S WHAT 2189 01:09:52,387 --> 01:09:50,586 WEEP -- GOOD EXCELLENT POINT 2190 01:09:52,688 --> 01:09:52,454 BECAUSE IN ONE PATTERN IT'S A 2191 01:09:55,757 --> 01:09:52,755 HIGH. 2192 01:09:56,191 --> 01:09:55,824 BUT IN THE OTHER PATTERN, IT'S A 2193 01:09:57,726 --> 01:09:56,258 LOW. 2194 01:10:02,431 --> 01:09:57,793 SO THAT'S WHY YOU GET WET 2195 01:10:04,499 --> 01:10:02,498 DECADES AND DRY DECADES. 2196 01:10:06,335 --> 01:10:04,566 YES, MA'AM. 2197 01:10:07,569 --> 01:10:06,402 >> SOUNDS TO ME LIKE WE'RE 2198 01:10:10,539 --> 01:10:07,636 PLANNING NOW FOR WATER SCARCITY 2199 01:10:11,974 --> 01:10:10,606 BUT IF WE'RE GOING TO HAVE THAT 2200 01:10:14,076 --> 01:10:12,041 FLIP OF THE PDO, DO WE REALLY 2201 01:10:16,144 --> 01:10:14,143 NEED TO PLAN BETTER FOR WATER 2202 01:10:17,479 --> 01:10:16,211 ABUNDANCE SO WE CAN CAPTURE THAT 2203 01:10:20,148 --> 01:10:17,546 WATER AT LEAST IN THE 2204 01:10:20,782 --> 01:10:20,215 GROUNDWATER INSTEAD OF HAVING IT 2205 01:10:22,284 --> 01:10:20,849 ALL RUN OFF TO THE OCEAN? 2206 01:10:24,286 --> 01:10:22,351 >> THAT'S A GOOD POINT. 2207 01:10:25,387 --> 01:10:24,353 IF WE'RE GOING TO GET INTO A WET 2208 01:10:27,289 --> 01:10:25,454 PERIOD, WE SHOULD PLAN BETTER 2209 01:10:27,589 --> 01:10:27,356 HOW TO CA TOUR THE WATER WHEN IT 2210 01:10:29,024 --> 01:10:27,656 COMES. 2211 01:10:30,525 --> 01:10:29,091 IT'S A GOOD POINT. 2212 01:10:31,860 --> 01:10:30,592 NOW, WE HAVE ACTUALLY BIG 2213 01:10:33,962 --> 01:10:31,927 GROUNDWATER SUPPLIES WHEN THE 2214 01:10:37,099 --> 01:10:34,029 GREAT ICE SHEETS RETREATED, THEY 2215 01:10:38,333 --> 01:10:37,166 LEFT BIG DEPOSITS OF GRAVEL, 2216 01:10:39,968 --> 01:10:38,400 SAND, UNDERNEATH LOS ANGELES. 2217 01:10:41,503 --> 01:10:40,035 AND SO THERE ARE BIG GROUNDWATER 2218 01:10:42,804 --> 01:10:41,570 SUPPLIES ALL THE WAY FROM LONG 2219 01:10:44,973 --> 01:10:42,871 BEACH TO PASADENA. 2220 01:10:47,075 --> 01:10:45,040 ALL THE WAY INTO THE INLAND 2221 01:10:49,244 --> 01:10:47,142 EMPIRE, THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY. 2222 01:10:49,611 --> 01:10:49,311 EXCEPT HALF OF THEM ARE 2223 01:10:51,847 --> 01:10:49,678 POLLUTED. 2224 01:10:53,615 --> 01:10:51,914 SO YOU CAN'T USE THEM. 2225 01:10:55,250 --> 01:10:53,682 THAT'S REALLY A SHAME. 2226 01:10:57,686 --> 01:10:55,317 AND SO WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO 2227 01:10:59,888 --> 01:10:57,753 SPEND SOME MONEY TO CLEAN THOSE 2228 01:11:00,922 --> 01:10:59,955 GROUNDWATER BASINS UP AND USE 2229 01:11:04,159 --> 01:11:00,989 THEM FOR STORAGE. 2230 01:11:05,894 --> 01:11:04,226 SO DURING THE WET YEARS, WE LET 2231 01:11:07,396 --> 01:11:05,961 THE WATER ACCUMULATE IN OUR 2232 01:11:11,733 --> 01:11:07,463 LOCAL GROUNDWATER BASINS AND 2233 01:11:12,334 --> 01:11:11,800 THEN WE USE IT LATER ON FOR THE 2234 01:11:13,835 --> 01:11:12,401 DRY YEARS. 2235 01:11:15,871 --> 01:11:13,902 IT'S A BIG PART. 2236 01:11:17,806 --> 01:11:15,938 SO IN SOME WAYS WE'RE TOO LEE 2237 01:11:20,008 --> 01:11:17,873 LOIPT ON IMPORTED WATER. 2238 01:11:23,211 --> 01:11:20,075 IF 70% IS COMING FROM NORTHERN 2239 01:11:25,213 --> 01:11:23,278 CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO, WE 2240 01:11:27,949 --> 01:11:25,280 COULD ACTUALLY CHANGE THATTING 2241 01:11:28,550 --> 01:11:28,016 TO 70% BEING LOCALLY GROWN 2242 01:11:29,284 --> 01:11:28,617 WATER. 2243 01:11:33,955 --> 01:11:29,351 BUT WE HAVE TO CLEAN UP THE 2244 01:11:34,556 --> 01:11:34,022 GROUND WATER BASINS. 2245 01:11:36,258 --> 01:11:34,623 >> YES. 2246 01:11:38,193 --> 01:11:36,325 >> HAF HEARD THEY'RE THINKING 2247 01:11:40,829 --> 01:11:38,260 ABOUT TAKING OUT SOME OF THE 2248 01:11:42,364 --> 01:11:40,896 CEMENT THAT'S LINING SOME OF THE 2249 01:11:44,833 --> 01:11:42,431 RIVERS THAT WE ARTIFICIALLY 2250 01:11:47,469 --> 01:11:44,900 CEMENTED IN TO ASSIST IN 2251 01:11:49,338 --> 01:11:47,536 REPLENISHING THE AQUIFERS. 2252 01:11:52,040 --> 01:11:49,405 IS THERE A STATEWIDE PLAN TO DO 2253 01:11:52,374 --> 01:11:52,107 THAT OR IS IT JUST AN ISOLATED 2254 01:11:53,408 --> 01:11:52,441 AREA. 2255 01:11:53,875 --> 01:11:53,475 >> THAT'S AN EXCELLENT QUESTION 2256 01:11:56,511 --> 01:11:53,942 AGAIN. 2257 01:11:57,012 --> 01:11:56,578 L.A. RIVER IS CONCRETED FOR 51 2258 01:11:58,447 --> 01:11:57,079 MILES. 2259 01:11:59,748 --> 01:11:58,514 ESSENTIALLY FROM THE SAN 2260 01:12:00,515 --> 01:11:59,815 FERNANDO VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO 2261 01:12:00,916 --> 01:12:00,582 LONG BEACH. 2262 01:12:03,452 --> 01:12:00,983 ALL RIGHT? 2263 01:12:05,120 --> 01:12:03,519 AND IT'S HOOKED UP TO 1600 MILES 2264 01:12:07,155 --> 01:12:05,187 OF STORM SEWERS. 2265 01:12:08,390 --> 01:12:07,222 AND IT WAS BUILT AFTER A GREAT 2266 01:12:11,660 --> 01:12:08,457 FLOOD IN 1938. 2267 01:12:13,962 --> 01:12:11,727 AND WE DECIDED THAT WE WOULD 2268 01:12:15,797 --> 01:12:14,029 ESSENTIALLY USE IMPORTED WATER, 2269 01:12:17,299 --> 01:12:15,864 NOT LOCAL WATER. 2270 01:12:18,800 --> 01:12:17,366 NOW, THE ONLY PROBLEM IS BE 2271 01:12:19,868 --> 01:12:18,867 THERE'S ONLY ONE THING IN 2272 01:12:22,270 --> 01:12:19,935 CALIFORNIA THAT'S MORE VALUABLE 2273 01:12:23,305 --> 01:12:22,337 THAN WATER. 2274 01:12:24,806 --> 01:12:23,372 WHAT'S THAT? 2275 01:12:25,107 --> 01:12:24,873 RIGHT, REAL ESTATE. 2276 01:12:27,209 --> 01:12:25,174 OKAY? 2277 01:12:29,344 --> 01:12:27,276 SO IN 1938, EVERYTHING SOUTH OF 2278 01:12:31,680 --> 01:12:29,411 DOWNTOWN L.A. FOR THREE MILES ON 2279 01:12:33,415 --> 01:12:31,747 BOTH SIDES OF THE RIVER FLOODED. 2280 01:12:33,749 --> 01:12:33,482 SO THAT'S WHY THEY CONCRETED THE 2281 01:12:35,417 --> 01:12:33,816 RIVER. 2282 01:12:37,219 --> 01:12:35,484 SINCE THEN, THERE'S BEEN A LOT 2283 01:12:38,420 --> 01:12:37,286 OF CONSTRUCTION, THERE'S BEEN 2284 01:12:40,055 --> 01:12:38,487 MORE STORM SEWERS. 2285 01:12:40,355 --> 01:12:40,122 I'M DOING A STUDY ON THAT RIGHT 2286 01:12:41,857 --> 01:12:40,422 NOW. 2287 01:12:42,891 --> 01:12:41,924 THE QUESTION IS, CAN YOU 2288 01:12:44,926 --> 01:12:42,958 ACTUALLY TAKE SOME OF THE 2289 01:12:48,663 --> 01:12:44,993 CONCRETE OUT OF THE L.A. RIVER 2290 01:12:52,401 --> 01:12:48,730 WITHOUT FLOODING L.A.? 2291 01:12:55,537 --> 01:12:52,468 OR HAS ALL THE GROWTH THAT HAS 2292 01:12:57,572 --> 01:12:55,604 HAPPENED SINCE 1940s AND '50S, 2293 01:12:58,006 --> 01:12:57,639 DOES THAT PRECLUDE TAKING 2294 01:13:00,142 --> 01:12:58,073 CONCRETE? 2295 01:13:00,509 --> 01:13:00,209 BECAUSE IT IS A FLOOD-CONTROL 2296 01:13:02,477 --> 01:13:00,576 CHANNEL. 2297 01:13:03,879 --> 01:13:02,544 AND THE ANSWER AT THIS POINT IS 2298 01:13:06,014 --> 01:13:03,946 THAT DON'T TOUCH THE CONCRETE IN 2299 01:13:06,982 --> 01:13:06,081 THE L.A. RIVER. 2300 01:13:08,316 --> 01:13:07,049 ALL RIGHT? 2301 01:13:10,085 --> 01:13:08,383 OTHERWISE, EVERYTHING YOU KNOW, 2302 01:13:10,786 --> 01:13:10,152 ON BOTH SIDES OF THE 110 SOUTH 2303 01:13:15,123 --> 01:13:10,853 OF DOWNTOWN L.A. IS GOING TO 2304 01:13:17,559 --> 01:13:15,190 FLOOD. 2305 01:13:19,060 --> 01:13:17,626 IT'S NOT A GOOD ANSWER. 2306 01:13:20,529 --> 01:13:19,127 NOW, WE COULD BUILD CATCHMENT 2307 01:13:20,862 --> 01:13:20,596 BASINS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE 2308 01:13:23,098 --> 01:13:20,929 RIVER. 2309 01:13:23,498 --> 01:13:23,165 WE COULD MAKE THE RIVER MORE 2310 01:13:26,401 --> 01:13:23,565 ATTRACTIVE. 2311 01:13:27,002 --> 01:13:26,468 BUT WE SORT OF MADE IT 2312 01:13:30,906 --> 01:13:27,069 IRREVERSIBLE DECISION. 2313 01:13:31,239 --> 01:13:30,973 WHEN WE COP CREATED THOSE 2314 01:13:32,808 --> 01:13:31,306 RIVERS. 2315 01:13:35,277 --> 01:13:32,875 THE FRIENDS OF THE RIVER THEY 2316 01:13:36,178 --> 01:13:35,344 HATE ME. 2317 01:13:37,546 --> 01:13:36,245 YOU KNOW? 2318 01:13:39,047 --> 01:13:37,613 YOU KNOW. 2319 01:13:39,681 --> 01:13:39,114 PLUS, LET'S GET RIGHT DOWN TO 2320 01:13:40,882 --> 01:13:39,748 IT. 2321 01:13:41,883 --> 01:13:40,949 95% OF THE TIME THERE'S NO WATER 2322 01:13:46,555 --> 01:13:41,950 IN THAT RIVER. 2323 01:13:46,955 --> 01:13:46,622 SO DON'T CALL IT A RIVER. 2324 01:13:48,790 --> 01:13:47,022 YES, SIR. 2325 01:13:51,493 --> 01:13:48,857 >> I'M ROOTING FOR THAT PDO 2326 01:13:52,761 --> 01:13:51,560 SHIFT LIKE YOU ARE, BUT LET'S 2327 01:13:55,263 --> 01:13:52,828 JUST SAY WORST CASE SCENARIO, 2328 01:13:59,935 --> 01:13:55,330 WHAT'S YOUR PREDICTIONS FOR WHEN 2329 01:14:02,204 --> 01:14:00,002 WE'LL GET INTO HAVING FORCED 2330 01:14:02,704 --> 01:14:02,271 MANDATORY RATIONING IF THE PDO 2331 01:14:04,940 --> 01:14:02,771 DOESN'T HAPPEN. 2332 01:14:07,843 --> 01:14:05,007 >> THERE'S GOING TO HAPPEN. 2333 01:14:09,611 --> 01:14:07,910 THERE'S TOO MANY OF US AND 2334 01:14:09,978 --> 01:14:09,678 THERE'S TOO MOECH GROWTH IN THE 2335 01:14:11,112 --> 01:14:10,045 ECONOMY. 2336 01:14:12,547 --> 01:14:11,179 WE'VE REACHED THE POINT WHERE 2337 01:14:15,851 --> 01:14:12,614 THE OLD SYSTEM DOESN'T WORK. 2338 01:14:16,251 --> 01:14:15,918 SO WE NEED A NEW SYSTEM. 2339 01:14:17,919 --> 01:14:16,318 ALL RIGHT? 2340 01:14:20,121 --> 01:14:17,986 AND SO YOU KNOW, WE'RE GOING TO 2341 01:14:21,356 --> 01:14:20,188 HAVE TO RETHINK, FRANS, FOR 2342 01:14:21,756 --> 01:14:21,423 INSTANCE, WATER LAWS IN 2343 01:14:23,825 --> 01:14:21,823 CALIFORNIA. 2344 01:14:25,393 --> 01:14:23,892 WHO OWNS THE WATER. 2345 01:14:25,827 --> 01:14:25,460 WHAT'S THE EQUITABLE 2346 01:14:28,430 --> 01:14:25,894 DISTRIBUTION? 2347 01:14:30,599 --> 01:14:28,497 YOU KNOW, WHAT KIND OF 2348 01:14:31,533 --> 01:14:30,666 LANDSCAPING WILL WILL BE LEGAL 2349 01:14:34,536 --> 01:14:31,600 IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA? 2350 01:14:35,871 --> 01:14:34,603 YOU KNOW, THE PEOPLE IN RANCHO 2351 01:14:38,707 --> 01:14:35,938 SANTA FE HAVE FOUR ACRES AND AN 2352 01:14:40,375 --> 01:14:38,774 YOU KNOW, YOU MIGHT BE USING 160 2353 01:14:42,444 --> 01:14:40,442 GALLONS PER DAY PER PERSON BUT 2354 01:14:43,345 --> 01:14:42,511 THEY'RE USING 480. 2355 01:14:44,713 --> 01:14:43,412 YOU KNOW? 2356 01:14:45,313 --> 01:14:44,780 THAT DEFINITELY SHOULD BE 2357 01:14:46,581 --> 01:14:45,380 ILLEGAL. 2358 01:14:50,185 --> 01:14:46,648 YOU KNOW? 2359 01:14:51,253 --> 01:14:50,252 MONTECITO, THE SAME THING. 2360 01:14:52,020 --> 01:14:51,320 YOU KNOW? 2361 01:14:53,989 --> 01:14:52,087 BEVERLY HILLS. 2362 01:14:56,191 --> 01:14:54,056 YOU KNOW WESTWOOD. 2363 01:14:57,292 --> 01:14:56,258 YOU KNOW? 2364 01:15:00,195 --> 01:14:57,359 POOR PEOPLE DON'T USE WATER. 2365 01:15:00,929 --> 01:15:00,262 RICH PEOPLE ABUSE WATER. 2366 01:15:02,230 --> 01:15:00,996 ALL RIGHT. 2367 01:15:04,266 --> 01:15:02,297 IT'S NOT FAIR. 2368 01:15:06,935 --> 01:15:04,333 SO WE HAVE TO COME UP WITH A 2369 01:15:09,938 --> 01:15:07,002 FAIRsK SYSTEM. 2370 01:15:12,607 --> 01:15:10,005 >>L RIGHT? IN ADDITION TO LEGAL 2371 01:15:16,344 --> 01:15:12,674 POLITICAL QUESTIONS, WE HEARD 2372 01:15:17,412 --> 01:15:16,411 IDEAS OF INNOVATION ESSENTIAL 2373 01:15:19,548 --> 01:15:17,479 INNOVATION, I REMEMBER DEAN KANE 2374 01:15:21,182 --> 01:15:19,615 WAS ON THE TV THIS WINTER 2375 01:15:22,317 --> 01:15:21,249 SHOWING SOME OF THE WATER 2376 01:15:24,452 --> 01:15:22,384 PURIFICATION DAMAGE ES THAT 2377 01:15:26,454 --> 01:15:24,519 COULD BE USED IN AFRICA. 2378 01:15:28,690 --> 01:15:26,521 SO EAMES TO ME WE HAVEN'T REALLY 2379 01:15:30,158 --> 01:15:28,757 TALKED ABOUT VENTURE CAPITAL AND 2380 01:15:31,760 --> 01:15:30,225 BASICALLY CALIFORNIA PROBABLY 2381 01:15:32,994 --> 01:15:31,827 HAS THE BIGGEST CONCENTRATION OF 2382 01:15:34,195 --> 01:15:33,061 VENTURE CAPITAL IN THE WORLD. 2383 01:15:36,164 --> 01:15:34,262 SO I DON'T KNOW WHETHER YOU OR 2384 01:15:37,399 --> 01:15:36,231 ANYBODY IN THE AUDIENCE KNOWS 2385 01:15:39,501 --> 01:15:37,466 WHETHER VENTURE CAPITAL SKILLS 2386 01:15:41,503 --> 01:15:39,568 ARE BEING APPLIED AND MAYBE 2387 01:15:42,704 --> 01:15:41,570 PRICING OF WATER ALONGSIDE THE 2388 01:15:45,440 --> 01:15:42,771 POLITICAL AND THE LEGAL. 2389 01:15:47,108 --> 01:15:45,507 >> I AGREE WITH YOU 100%. 2390 01:15:49,210 --> 01:15:47,175 THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY. 2391 01:15:50,412 --> 01:15:49,277 BECAUSE WE'RE SO DEPENDENT ON 2392 01:15:51,346 --> 01:15:50,479 THE WATER HERE. 2393 01:15:53,682 --> 01:15:51,413 THIS IS DEFINITELY AN 2394 01:15:54,816 --> 01:15:53,749 OPPORTUNITY FOR NEW IDEAS AND 2395 01:15:56,384 --> 01:15:54,883 NEW TECHNOLOGY. 2396 01:15:58,320 --> 01:15:56,451 BETTER WATER EFFICIENCY. 2397 01:15:59,888 --> 01:15:58,387 AND SO YOU KNOW, YOUNG PEOPLE 2398 01:16:02,023 --> 01:15:59,955 BETTER GET ON STICK HERE AND 2399 01:16:02,424 --> 01:16:02,090 START TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THIS 2400 01:16:04,059 --> 01:16:02,491 OPPORTUNITY. 2401 01:16:06,227 --> 01:16:04,126 YOU KNOW, THAT'S WHAT MADE 2402 01:16:07,829 --> 01:16:06,294 CALIFORNIA SUCH A GREAT PLACE. 2403 01:16:09,164 --> 01:16:07,896 NEW IDEAS. 2404 01:16:11,299 --> 01:16:09,231 NEW TECHNOLOGIES. 2405 01:16:12,801 --> 01:16:11,366 AND SO I'M PRETTY OPTIMISTIC 2406 01:16:14,369 --> 01:16:12,868 ACTUALLY THAT WE CAN GET OUT OF 2407 01:16:16,071 --> 01:16:14,436 THIS WHOLE THING. 2408 01:16:17,806 --> 01:16:16,138 BUT WE'RE DEFINITELY GOING TO 2409 01:16:18,206 --> 01:16:17,873 FUNDAMENTALLY HAVE TO CHANGE OUR 2410 01:16:19,641 --> 01:16:18,273 LIFESTYLES. 2411 01:16:21,576 --> 01:16:19,708 AND YOU KNOW, THIS HAS BEEN 2412 01:16:24,679 --> 01:16:21,643 GOING ON A LONG TIME HERE. 2413 01:16:25,714 --> 01:16:24,746 BUT LET ME MAKE ONE FINAL THING. 2414 01:16:27,048 --> 01:16:25,781 THIS IS AMERICA. 2415 01:16:30,652 --> 01:16:27,115 WHAT'S THE MOST IMPORTANT THING 2416 01:16:32,621 --> 01:16:30,719 YOU DO IN AMERICA? 2417 01:16:34,956 --> 01:16:32,688 ALL RIGHT IT'S NOT LETTING THE 2418 01:16:36,157 --> 01:16:35,023 YELLOW MELLOW IN YOUR TOILET. 2419 01:16:37,392 --> 01:16:36,224 THAT DOESN'T CHANGE THE WORLD. 2420 01:16:38,460 --> 01:16:37,459 IT HELPS A LITTLE BIT. 2421 01:16:41,596 --> 01:16:38,527 BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING 2422 01:16:41,997 --> 01:16:41,663 THAT YOU DO IS IT VOTE. 2423 01:16:43,331 --> 01:16:42,064 ALL RIGHT? 2424 01:16:46,835 --> 01:16:43,398 AND RIGHT NOW, THE POLITICAL 2425 01:16:47,268 --> 01:16:46,902 POWER IN THIS STATE IS WITH 2426 01:16:47,669 --> 01:16:47,335 AGRICULTURE. 2427 01:16:49,571 --> 01:16:47,736 ALL RIGHT? 2428 01:16:51,640 --> 01:16:49,638 AND WITH THE WATER BARE RONS. 2429 01:16:53,108 --> 01:16:51,707 SO IF YOU WANT THE SITUATIONS 2430 01:16:56,011 --> 01:16:53,175 CHANGED, YOU WANT THE WATER LAWS 2431 01:16:57,846 --> 01:16:56,078 TO CHANGE, YOU WANT THE WATER 2432 01:16:59,814 --> 01:16:57,913 ALLOCATION, ALL RIGHT, YOU WANT 2433 01:17:01,583 --> 01:16:59,881 HIGH WHAT KIND OF ENERGY WE USE 2434 01:17:03,652 --> 01:17:01,650 TO RUN THIS STATE, WHETHER IT'S 2435 01:17:06,087 --> 01:17:03,719 GOING TO BE RENEWABLE ENERGY OR 2436 01:17:08,957 --> 01:17:06,154 COAL OR GAS, ALL RIGHT, HOW YOU 2437 01:17:09,357 --> 01:17:09,024 DO THAT IS WHO YOU VOTE FOR. 2438 01:17:10,925 --> 01:17:09,424 ALL RIGHT? 2439 01:17:11,926 --> 01:17:10,992 SO YOU KNOW, TAKING SHOWERS 2440 01:17:13,928 --> 01:17:11,993 TOGETHER IS GOOD. 2441 01:17:16,064 --> 01:17:13,995 DRIVING A PRIUS IS GOOD. 2442 01:17:17,532 --> 01:17:16,131 PLANTING A TREE IS SUPER. 2443 01:17:21,469 --> 01:17:17,599 BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING YOU 2444 01:17:22,037 --> 01:17:21,536 DO IS HOW YOU VOTE AND WHO YOU 2445 01:17:23,438 --> 01:17:22,104 VOTE FOR. 2446 01:17:30,011 --> 01:17:23,505 AND I'M RUNNING. 2447 01:17:34,349 --> 01:17:30,078 I'M RUNNING FOR WATER CZAR.